Mr Grey
23.02.2023 kl 12:41 7921

Spennende med Pareto analysen, i dag dukket også Tigerstaden (Ketil Skorstad) opp på aksjonærlisten med 25.000 aksjer, blir interessant å se hva som er planen hans fremover i Noreco.
Her er utklipp fra analysen:

Soon to be a European gas champion
Tyra is progressing towards first gas around YE’23e, which will roughly double Noreco’s production and lift its gas share of total production to 45%. We estimate that the company will be slightly FCF positive this year before generating an avg. FCF yield of 40% in 2024-27e based on forward gas prices and Brent USD 80/bbl. We see potential for a dividend yield of ~25% post debt reductions and think Noreco as one of the largest gas producers within the EU will become an interesting acquisition candidate. Offshore execution risk at Tyra remains but is mostly timing related in our opinion (cost impact will likely be limited vs current liquidity/FCF outlook). We set our TP at NOK 600, in line with our risked NAV but with further upside potential from the implied dividend yield of 17% from 2025e. BUY

Production growth to 55,000 boe/day post Tyra first gas near YE’23e
Noreco delivered Q4 results largely in line (see newsflash) and reiterated the target of first gas at Tyra near YE’23e. The redevelopment will almost double the Noreco’s production and transform the company into a material supplier of gas to Europe. A significant offshore workload remains (operator Total estimated 800,000 of remaining productive manhours to first gas back in Q3’22) but we think most of the risk is timing related given fairly modest post-tax impact of cost overruns. The final Hook-Up and Commissioning phase at Tyra is progressing with well instalment commencing earlier this month. To our understanding, the critical path work to first gas is progressing on schedule despite delays at one of the modules (Tyra West). Separately, the DUC partners are targeting low-hanging fruit with five wells remaining of the seven-well infill campaign (~19 mmboe net & USD 13-10/boe capex) at producing fields maturing towards FID in 2023-24. This is expected to lift Noreco’s production to ~55,000 boe/day in 2025e, up from previously ~50,000 boe/day and prolonged the production plateau.
Strong FCF outlook post Tyra first gas
Noreco had USD 468m of liquidity (USD 268m of cash and USD 200m of RBL) that provide a significant buffer to deliver Tyra (USD 190m of remaining capex to first gas). Once online, we estimate Noreco will generate an avg. of USD 330/390/430m (19%/24%/26% FCF/EV) of FCF in 2024-27e (avg. p.a.) assuming USD 60/80/100 per bbl Brent and forward gas prices (avg. USD 84/boe), which are still >3x the 5-year pre-Covid average. In terms of gas price sensitivity, we estimate an avg. FCF of USD 360/450/530m (18%/27%/35% FCF/EV) at USD 50/100/150 per boe of gas and USD 85/bbl Brent. We expect this to allow for rapid debt reductions and investment in future production while still enabling the company to pay out a dividend yield of around 25%.
BUY/TP NOK 600 with further upside potential post Tyra first gas
We estimate Noreco’s NAV at NOK 612/share assuming USD 85/85/70 per bbl Brent in 2023/24/LT and forward gas prices of USD 112/112/84/70 per boe in 2023/24/25/LT. Noreco’s share price has recently outperformed, but we see further upside as we expect the market to increasingly price in more of the upside potential post first gas at Tyra. In addition, the recent refinancing of NOR13 removed the risk of potential selling-pressure (from bondholders being converted to equity) ahead of Tyra first gas and enable Noreco to take out the bond in cash if preferred. Noreco is also favorably priced vs most North Sea peers (see page 3-4) even after adjusting for the development risk that remains at Tyra. We set our TP at NOK 600 and see further upside potential if Tyra is delivered in line with company expectations (NOK 100/share NAV derisking impact). The biggest risks to our positive view in our opinion are lower oil and gas prices and delays/cost overruns at Tyra.
Redigert 23.02.2023 kl 12:53

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