Takk Sa2ri. Markedet har bestemt at en yield på 22% er altfor dårlig......

Ingen Baltic Dry i dag?

BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS -1,8% TIL USD 20.293/DAG
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks er ned 1,8 prosent til 20.293 pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange mandag.

HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70

Ser at Kina skal investere 500000000000 NOK i Afrika. Håper man trenger noen kilo stål i den "knøttlille" summen :-)

https://www.dn.no/nyheter/2018/09/03/2054/Utenriks/kina-lover-500-mrd-til-afrika

"As demand for transportation of dry bulk commodities increases throughout the year, BIMCO expects the recovery of freight rates to continue slowly but steadily. Expect higher volumes for coal, iron ore and wheat to dominate the market in the second half of the year."
Link: https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-shipping-an-improving-market-even-as-iron-ore-imports-slip-and-the-fleet-grows-faster/

Shortnteressen I GOGL gikk noe ned forrige uke. SB1M sin ukentlige rapport viser nå følgende:

"GOGL NO: -0.49% SI chg. last week
Days to cover = 1.5, quantity on loan = 1.05m"

Det ser også ut til at "noen" mener det er på tide å kjøpe litt aksjer selv om det ikke er like mange som ønsker å selge. Lav omsetning, men momentet ser nå ut il å være nordover.

He,he. Da var den ultimate hjerneblødningen over for aktøren som måket ut 112000 GOGL BULL til 19.00 NOK. Snakk om desperasjon!

Heisann Kjepet.

Det var nok min handel, satser på en lavere inngang før neste kvartall rapport. Inngang var ca 7.7nok, så ikkje så værst. Hovedgrunnen for salget var at eg tror det blir turbulent denne uken med tanke på Donald og mulige toll satser iløpet av uken. Fortsatt ståltro på Gogl, så det går nok ikkje lang tid før eg er inne igjen.

Grattis med kjempegevinsten:-)

Du gikk inn januar 2017? Aldri feil med gevinst. Har du byttet strategi? Trading, siden du frykter uken som kommer?

Nei eg gikk inn i april 2016 en gang, og litt små trading etter dette.
Strategien er og kanskje gå inn i aksjen istedenfor, siden det blir nok endel utbytter framover, og den er mindre volatil :-)

Skal bli interesant å se hvilken dollarkurs vi får når utbyttet betales. Dollaren står nå i 8,409.

Herr Pettersen i Aksjeanalyser mener at GOGL vil doble seg i lopet av ett års tid. Har sett mye rart fra den karen, men kanskje han har rett denne gangen. :-)https://www.nettavisen.no/meninger/aksjeanalyser/fredriksen-aksje-er-en-klar-doblingskandidat/3423533172.html

Kjekk artikkel. Når Gogl begynner å spytte ut utbytte, så kommer kursen også.
Og så venter vi jo på gladmeldingen fra Bermuda da. Var det ikke i sept møtet skulle være?

Short i gogl har endret seg litt..https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/Home/Details/BMG396372051

Hei. Koster det noe å sitte med bull over en viss tid?

Her er en god oppsummering på hva jeg har forsøkt å forklare ville skje med jernmalm og kull.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/china-pollution-reforms-iron-ore-coal-commodity-markets-base-metals-trade-2018-9/amp

Og denne https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/capesize-charter-rates-expected-to-keep-increasing-despite-trade-war-uncertainties/

Nei koster bare litt dårlig søvn, og den mister en viss verdi over tid. Kurtasjen er den samme som aksjer tror eg.

Markedet for tørrbulkfrakt er fortsatt i contango på tvers av alle størrelser med Capesize i front av flokken, ifølge Nordic Shipping.

Skipsmeglerhuset viser til at Forward Freight Agreements, fremtidige fraktavtaler, for september handles til rundt 22.000 dollar pr. dag i capesize-segmentet, mens kontrakter for november - to måneder senere - handles til dagrater på rundt 27.500 dollar.

Skipsverdiene i tørrbulkmarkedet har fått et betydelig oppsving siden markedet bunnet ut i starten av 2016, men nå har de stabilisert seg noe, ifølge Nordic Shipping.

- Det er plenty av bulkskip til salgs og det er ingen drivere for høyere skipsverdier for øyeblikket, skriver meglerhuset i sin seneste ukesrapport.

- Det var helt utvilsomt et klarere investeringscase i 2016 da tørrbulkmarkedet var under opex, verdiene var historisk lave og de med guts, plasserte veddemålene sine, heter det videre.

Det var da fryktelig hvor mye juling vi har måtte tåle i det siste. Rsi på 38,69 nå!

https://min.e24.no/golden-ocean-vil-ikke-utelukke-kj-p/a/8w8ERw

Mener vi er godt posisjonert nå, og håper ikke de kjøper noe enda. I 2020 vil det nok skje mye med de som ikke er forberedt på IMO 2020. Da kan man nok plukke gode skip til skrapverdi. De rederiene som lar 2020 komme som julaften på kjærringa, går nok en tøff tid i møte. Det er mange utfordringer med forskjellig drivstoff, klogging av filtre, motorhavari ++ etc. Og dette må testes ut før 1. jan 2020.
Dessuten kreves det både penger og styrke nok til å ta et skip ut av drift i mange måneder, uten inntjening, for å installere scrubbere.
Mr John har jo lært Trøim at man bygger selskapet i bunnen av syklusen, og ikke når den er godt på vei.
Setter pris på at Vartdal sier de prioriterer utbytte. Det fortjener vi nå.

Må legge til kveldens fra Bulls. Etterhvert må jo de få rett også.

Last Signal:STAY IN CASH
Last Close:73,30 Change:+0,4500 Percent change+0,62% Signal Update Our system’s recommendation today is to STAY IN CASH. The previous SELL signal was issued on 23.08.2018, 20 days ago, when the stock price was 81,00. Since then GOGL.OL has fallen by -9,51%.
Market Outlook The market is finally giving hints of a bullish resurgence. Today a bullish pattern is detected. more...

Jernmalmen ser ut til å være i stigende terreng i dag, og på greit volum. Lettelse i Asia på morgenkvisten, og bevegelsen i jernmalmen, kan derfor være med å løfte kursen en del i dag.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/goodbulk-ltd-capesize-market-is-in-the-early-stages-of-a-cyclical-recovery/

Har du det travelt bør du selge ASAP :-)

Hehe. Mye fremtidsoptimisme hos rederne nå. Det ser dog ut til at markedet - enn så lennge - ikke har priset inn dette. Hvis cashflowen fortsetter som nå, og det kommer flere kvartaler med utbytte, kommer det til å gå rett nord både for GOGL og JIN.

Ratene har falt over 35% den siste måneden mens aksjekursen er uendret, Investorene har beholdt troen hele tiden - men den begynner muligens å bli litt tynnslitt etter hvert ? Husk at GOGL har et helt gjeldsberg å drasse med.

Dry Bulk Market is – So Far – Unaffected by the US-China Trade Battles
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 14/09/2018

While it’s a bit difficult to expect this trend persisting, it’s becoming clear that the trade war between the US and China hasn’t dented the dry bulk market’s upwards momentum, thanks, in part to a boom in soybeans trade involving Brazil and the balance between tonnage supply and demand.

In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that “it has been a rather turbulent week, with emerging markets having taken a considerable hit in the midst of the recent strength noted in US Dollar and the still bleakish view noted on trade (something emerging markets rely heavily on). Despite all this, the performance of the dry bulk market has managed to hold its ground relatively well and given the current freight rate levels being noted, we could well be on the verge of further improvements in sight”.

According to Allied’s, George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations, “it is worth pointing out that Australia’s Port Hedland noted a nearly 10 percent monthly increase in its shipments of iron ore to China during the month of August, showing that despite the negative influence that has been noted by the trade disputes, demand is still there and showing positive signs thanks to the firm steel production”.

Lazaridis added that “a trade that has really shown considerable shifts over the past months has been that of grains and more specifically that of soybeans. During the past month China increased its soybean imports by an impressive 14 percent from a month earlier. This drive has in part been driven by the damage caused to crops in China’s Northeastern region, something that will surely help push the market further over the coming weeks as they seek to partly cover the gap in demand with imports. The tariffs that China has imposed on soybean imports from the US have also played their part, essentially pushing most traders to seek to increase their reliance on imports from Brazil. Given that the harvest seasons for these two countries don’t completely coincide, it has lead to bigger seasonal shifts in trade volumes”.

“Adding to this mix the continued support being handed to the dry bulk market from the bullish coal trade noted this year and you have a recipe for further freight rate gains. In terms of coal, things are likely set to continue to hold firm for the medium term, given that both China and India are still showing strong demand trends for the time being”, Allied analyst said.

He went on to note that “putting these trends in trade against the trends noted in terms of fleet and you can see how there is still a fair balance being kept in the market. The overall dry bulk fleet has increased by a fairly moderate 1.46% over the past 8 months. Given that we are expected to close off the year with a 2.6% net increase in the dry bulk trade, this still leaves for a fair positive margin to be gained despite all the developments that have taken place this year. Comparing were the Baltic Index stands now against past years and looking at the typical trends noted in the final quarter of each year for the past 5 years, you can’t help but keep a more optimistic view despite all the political commotion taking place”, Lazaridis concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-is-so-far-unaffected-by-the-us-china-trade-battles/

Interessant om scrubbere og IMO2020:

https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/09/Vedder-paa-dieselkrise-om-16-maaneder

Gogl blir vel godt posisjonert i forhold til dette hvis de rekker å få inn planlagte scrubbere.. noen som vet når det skal skje? Rekker de 2020?

Du finner mer informasjon om dette i 2Q18-rapporten.

Ja, jeg fant at de har signert på 16 skip, men ikke mer detaljer. Montasjetid og tilkomst til verft mm spiller vel inn..får lese litt igjen.

De rekker det neppe for hele flåten. Lettere olje er alternativet. Denne vil være svært dyr i begynnelsen, pga kapasitetsproblemer. Etterhvert vil prisen gå ned, når raffineriene har fått opp dampen. Så hva svarer seg: scrubbere eller lettolje? Thats the big question. I begynnelsen er scrubbere vinnerne, men på et visst tidspunkt vil trolig lettolje være tilnærmet like gunstig dersom en regner inn kostnad for scrubber-installasjon uten inntekter under verfts opphold.

Norway’s Vistin sees trading opportunities ahead of 2020 ship fuel change
in International Shipping News 14/09/2018


Energy trader Vistin Trading, a part of pharmaceutical company Vistin Pharma, sees big trading opportunities ahead of new stricter shipping fuel regulations in 2020 and plans to set up two new funds by the end of the year.
The International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) new regulations come into force from 2020, requiring shipping firms to use fuel oil with a sulphur content at 0.5 percent, down from 3.5 percent now or invest in cleaning systems, so-called “scrubbers” on their vessels.
“We believe the market is mispricing both residual fuel oil (high sulphur fuel oil) and & gasoil (low sulphur fuel oil),” oil analyst Torbjoern Kjus trading told a presentation in Oslo.
The spread is currently about $300 per tonne.
“30,000 scrubbers have to be installed the next 16 months (if shipping firms should comply with new IMO rules) if not, there should be a problem for the refineries. Of course it will not happen, we might reach 2,000 scrubbers,” Kjus said.
Vistin Trading was established in March this year through a private placement of 300 million Norwegian crowns ($36.5 million) in Vistin Pharma.
“Part of Vistin Pharma’s strategy is to invest in asymmetrical investment opportunities caused by fundamental changes in the oil space,” the firm said.
“We will probably set up two funds before the year-end, we can’t give the size yet,” Kjus said.
Kjus expects the price of low sulphur fuel oil to rise because of higher demand to comply with new rules and constraints at refineries.
This again could also lead to higher prices of jet fuel for airlines, his partner Kenneth Tveter, said on the sidelines of the conference.
Kjus is a former oil market analyst at broker DNB Markets in Oslo and was early in predicting the oil price crash in late 2014. Tveter has been working at DNB Markets in New York.
Kjus also predicted higher freight rates and 0.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in extra oil demand as side-effects of the fuel standard change.
Source: Reuters (Reporting By Ole Petter Skonnord, editing by David Evans)

Fra rapporten:

"The Company has entered into an agreement to purchase 16 exhaust gas scrubbers with an option to
purchase nine additional scrubbers to be installed on certain of its Capesize vessels. The initial 16 scrubbers
will be installed during routine dry docking schedules, and the majority of these installations will be completed
in 2019 or early 2020."

Sakset fra TradeWinds

DNB Markets raises its rate forecasts for the ships but cautions owners with the equipment will likely speed up rather than slow down.

September 14th, 2018 10:24 GMT

A spike in shipowners turning to scrubbers is reducing the likely impact of slow steaming on the capesize market when new regulations kick in at the start of 2020, DNB Markets says.

The bank, which has raised its capesize rate forecasts for the next two years, believes the exhaust cleaning systems represent a good investment for shipowners.

DNB Markets analysts led by Nicolay Dyvik note 2,300 vessels globally are now likely to have scrubbers by 2020.

This covers around 15% of heavy fuel oil demand and largely offsets potential positive effects of higher fuel costs on vessel speed and supply, they argue.

Scrubbers will be most prevalent in the major shipping segments, with the analysts forecasting 973 dry bulk vessels will have the equipment when the new IMO rules come into force.

“The larger and more fuel-hungry vessels are likely to be overrepresented at the scrubber shop,” Dyvik and colleagues Jorgen Lian and Mats Bye said.

They suggest scrubbers for capesize bulkers will come with a payback period of 14 months, assuming a $250 per tonne fuel price spread between HFO and a compliant alternative.

However, given the higher takeup of scrubbers among capesize owners, those with the equipment will have an incentive to speed up, the analysts suggest.

As a result, the net effect of slow-steaming will reduce effective supply by just 0.5%, the analysts calculate.

“We believe large scrubber uptake combined with a young fleet would lessen the 2020 impact on dry bulk,” the analysts said.

Despite the surge in demand from major capesize owners for scrubbers, DNB Markets remains optimistic on the dry bulk market.

With average fleet growth of 2.6% between 2018 and 2021 and demand forecast to increase by 3.3% in the same period, the analysts suggest second hand bulker prices could rise by 11%.

DNB Markets is now forecasting capesize rates of $19,000 per day for this year, up by $2,000 per day from its previous projection.

Its forecast for next year has been increased from $20,000 to $24,000 per day.

Despite the comments around slow steaming being diluted, the DNB analysts now project capesize rates of $27,000 per day in 2020, up from $23,000 per day previously.

“We stay optimistic on the dry bulk outlook, but demand looks more fragile being highly coal-dependent as iron ore is facing slower growth,” Dyvik, Lian and Mats Bye said.

Scrubbere kan installeres mens skipene seiler. De tas ikke ut av trafikk for dette.

Flere og flere som hvor dette ender. Rett og slett i en eksplosjon :-)
https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/09/Den-kan-komme-til-aa-eksplodere

Eksplosjonen som nevnes er vel primært rettet mot dieselprisen, men artikkelen støtter jo at vi GOGL-aksjonærer har noe godt i vente :-)

September har så langt ikke innfridd de forventingene mange har hatt til utviklingen i ratene. I følge en melding på Twitter nettopp, kan det se ut som om det er i ferd med å snu:

"FFA: Market levels are trading a bit firmer on Capes & Smx so far this morning while Pmx is fairly flat. Expecting Pmx/Smx/Handy TCAs to be flat up slightly."

Etter nesten en måned med kontinuering fall i caperatene, ser det nå ut som vi har bunnet ut for denne gang. Da får vi nok stigende rater fremover. Når passerer vi $30.000/d? 22. oktober er mitt tips :-)

BULK:CAPESIZE-RATENE SIDELENGS SENESTE UKEN -FEARNLEYS
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Capesize-ratene har beveget seg sidelengs den seneste uken, men med en positiv undertone, skriver Fearnleys i sin ukentlige shipping-rapport.

Videre har panamaxaene opplevd en positiv rateoppgang i Stillehavs-regionen, som har blitt motvirket av fallende rater i Atlanteren, opplyses det.

For supramaxene har ratene driftet inn i positivt territorium for alle ruter.

RATER (USD/DAG, USD/TONN):
DENNE FORRIGE
CAPESIZE UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
TCT Cont/Fjern-Østen 35.000 34.250 18.000/44.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Tubarao/Rotterdam (jernmalm) 8,00 8,30 5,40/11,50
--------------------------------------------------------------
Richards Bay/Rotterdam 8,00 8,20 5,40/12,30
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
PANAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet rundreise 12.000 13.000 7.100/15.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 19.800 20.300 15.000/21.800
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen/Kontinentet 4.951 4.821 4.300/5.200
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen, rundreise 12.500 11.500 8.300/13.750
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
SUPRAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet, rundreise 14.500 14.500 11.000/16.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Stillehavet, rundreise 11.500 11.000 8.000/12.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 17.500 17.500 16.000/20.500
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
1 ÅR TIMECHARTER UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Capesize 180' dwt 21.500 21.500 17.000/22.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Capesize 170' dwt 19.000 19.000 15.750/19.250
--------------------------------------------------------------
Panamax 75' dwt 13.000 13.300 11.250/14.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Supramax 53' dwt 12.500 12.500 10.000/13.000
==============================================================
HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70

Og da var utbytte på konto :)
Og det til en $ kurs på kr 8,40 !

Lack of available shipping finance has contributed to dry bulk market’s revival
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 21/09/2018

The dry bulk market is heading for a revival as a result of the balance achieved in the global orderbook, both as a result of a rebound in demand, but also because of a lack of available financing, says Allied Shipbroking. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted that “it was 10 years ago this past Friday, when the world encountered the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression. A crisis that affected the whole business world and led shipping markets into a tail spin recession unlike any seen in decades. In the summer of 2008, the BDI had reached its highest point in its history, peaking at 11,793 points. The booming market conditions noted since the latter half of 2003 had boosted market confidence to new highs, while many were proclaiming a new market reality was taking shape. This optimism, which as usual occurs at the top of any market cycle, had as a result a spending spree that was unmatched, as a consequence leading to the biggest orderbook pile up in history being held by shipbuilders. The orderbook had reached 3,700 vessels just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008”.

According to Allied’s Research Analyts, Yiannis Vamvakas, “the harsh impact of the crisis was swift and unpleasant for the dry bulk sector, though despite all this, the orderbook number fell by only 7% in 2009. The orderbook remained above 3,000 vessels up until the last quarter of 2011 thanks to renewed interest for new orders post the financial crash. With the end of the commodity super-cycle in 2011 we began to see a drop in the orderbook of 15% per year on average, reaching 863 at August 2018. As a result of all this, the fleet grew vastly in the years following the collapse, with the YoY% fleet growth figures being 8% and 9% respectively for 2010 and 2011, while in the last 10 years it has increased by 62% in terms of vessel numbers”.

Vamvakas added that “after 2011, fleet growth started to drop gradually, reaching 2% in 2017. Demolitions volumes increased in this time period helping alleviate the market from some of these excesses, though even with these removals it took a while before a balance could be reached. Meanwhile, global trade took a serious hit just after the 2008 crash, with total volume falling by around 14% in 2009, according to WTO. Consequently, this huge gap between supply and demand sent rates plummeting. Capes saw the worst of this, going from exuberant rates of around $200,000pd at its peak, down to lower than $10,000 per day in the last quarter of the same year”.

Meanwhile, “unlike previous financial and economic downturns, the recovery this time around was fairly swift, yet the ground work had been laid down for the gradually retreat of the double figure growth rates in trade. Today, with the orderbook to fleet ratio is at around 12%, with market fundamentals turning positive and with a considerably improved global trade growth noted over the past 2 years, the question is what will happen if all this starts to build up to over exuberance amongst shipowners. The truth is that another aspect of this crisis is still playing a key role here. More specifically, the ship financing market has not completely revived yet”, said Allied’s analyst.

“Traditional ship financing houses are still limiting their involvement in the market. Over the past couple of years we have seen limited fresh lending, as well reduced credit lines and even withdrawals from previously agreed commitments. Alternative financing is only just coming into the spotlight, with Chinese leasing being the latest flavor of the month. All these have helped keep the orderbook at low levels, a fact that has facilitated to bring about some breathing space in the market. All in all, as shipping finance starts to become more accessible and finds new ways to reinvent itself and with market fundamentals continuing to improve, it is matter of time before we see if George Santayana’s quote, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”, will be confirmed once more”, Vamvacas concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/lack-of-available-shipping-finance-has-contributed-to-dry-bulk-markets-revival/

I dag er det Generalforsamling på Bermuda. (5 timer tidsforskjell)
Kanskje vi kan vente oss noen positive overraskelser??
Hva med den saken som skal opp til behandling om å flytte store midler fra bunden til fri egenkapital?
Det står jo i forslaget at deler av dette kan benyttes til utbytte.
Kanskje det kommer en melding i dag, eller kanskje ikke før på mandag.

Det er mye mulig det kommer noe snadder i dag ja, time will show.

Lurer på hvor desperasjonen til å selge unna kommer fra, når vi ser at ratene på Brasil-Kina ruten endelig har snudd? Er jo fin interesse fra større aktører i dag for å komme seg inn, mens denne aktøren lemper ut en haug med aksjer på "best" som det skulle vært et rent tvangssalg?

Ja, det blir spennende framover. På møtet idag blir det stemt, og så har de maks 30 dager på seg til å offentligjøre avgjørelsen.
Og det er ikke småpenger det er snakk om. $ 473 Mill. Det vil si ca kr 27 pr aksje som de vil bruke til å styrke utbetaling av utbytte.
Her vil det nok bli ekstraordinært utbytte også, vil jeg tro.

Vet ikke om jeg skal le eller gråte over alle de som absolutt ikke vil være med på moroa. Men her er nok mange som ikke har fulgt med i timen.

Møtet startet kl 0900 Bermuda tid som vil si kl 1300 her. Det er nok lukket møte.

Om det jeg leser på Twitter nå stemmer (som nevnt tidligere litt usikker kilde9, så setter jeg kursen mot polet for en god flaske rødvin :-)