3x, Hissig på grøten?

Har ikke laga hovedposter på en stund, det kom ikke noe "ok" eller noe, tekstboksen ble bare lilla :)

1 minutt til take-off!

Hva starter vi på?

starta måneden på 80,15 :)

Baltic dry indeksen stiger i takt med GOGL

Skal opp til 100 i okt

Kan noen sier noen ord om hvorfor Jinhui går voldsomt i dag men ikke GOGL? Har GOGL gått mer i forkant? Ut fra presentasjonen til selskapene så ligger breakeven på ca samme nivå i begge selskap.

Det er bare å ta det med ro. Vi skal nok videre, både til 90 og 100

https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/10/Jinhui-kan-stige-100-prosent

Det kan se ut som at vi får et brudd opp gjennom 81,- i dag. Skjer dette er det et sterkt kjøpssignal.

Enig - stærkt købssignal i GOGL nu - tænker en kurs omkring 100-105 NOK er inde for rækkevidde indenfor en kort periode !

Nedgang i spotratene i dag, siden den snudde ned etter 12?
Jin snart opp 40% på noen uker..

Nej stiger viderer !!

BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS +2,5% TIL USD 19.217/DAG
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks er opp 2,5 prosent til 19.217 pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange tirsdag.

Bra, bør opp til 85 idag

Mon ikke lige vi skal have US til at åbne - GOGL har det jo med at slutte godt af om eftermiddagen, når US vågner :-) Men er enig, den bør stige kraftigt, efter vi har fået et brud op over nu !

JERNMALM: AUSTRALSKE MYNDIGHETER SER PRIS PÅ USD 51/TONN FOB I 2020
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Australske myndigheter venter at jernmalmprisen vil falle til 51 dollar pr tonn fob i 2020, som et resultat av en ventet nedgang i stålproduksjonen i Kina og et godt forsynt sjøbårent marked.

Det fremkommer av Resources and Energy-rapporten for september 2018, fra australske myndigheter, publisert tirsdag.

Videre ventes en gradvis prisnedgang til et gjennomsnitt på 52 dollar pr tonn fob i 2019.

I rapporten fremkommer det videre at myndighetene venter at etterspørselen etter malm med høyt jerninnhold vil tynge 62 prosents-fe-prisene i perioden frem til 2020. Kinas stålsektor er ventet å fortsatt bli påvirket av pågående kapasitetsreduksjoner og policyer som søker å adressere luftforurensningen.

Kina fortsetter å foretrekke malm med høyt jerninnhold.

Australias jernmalmeksportvolumer ventes å stige til 878 millioner tonn i 2019/2020 fra 2017/2018-nivået på 849 millioner tonn, drevet av en økning i produksjonen fra landets største produsenter, opplyses det.

Verdien av Australias jernmalmeksport anslås å falle til 56 milliard dollar i 2019/2020, fra 2017/2018-nivået på 61 milliarder dollar, med lavere priser som mer enn motvirker veksten i eksportvolumene, ifølge myndighetene.

HH, finans@tdn.no

Hva tror du volf er det bare og sitte rolig i båten no?

FFA: Better physical on Capes has provided support this morning as levels are up roughly 400 nearby. PMX and SMX are trading slightly firmer nearby as expecting their index to be slightly softer and possibly even flat. Decent activity so far given the Chinese holiday.

Slenger meg på sognoksen, hadde vært kjekt å høre volf sin mening.

Ser ut som det har blitt shortet en del de siste dagene.

Golden Ocean Group 1,84 1563361 01.10.2018
Golden Ocean Group 1,19 1724338 05.09.2018

De tallene er selvmotsigende. Prosenten går opp, mens antallet aksjer går ned!?

Enig, så det først nå. Tallene er forøvrig fra DnB "børsfeeder"

Old Mutual har redusert sin med ca 160.000 aksjer, mens andre har økt sin posisjon? Neppe regnefeil hos Finanstilsynet, men merkelig posisjonering i disse tider.

Ble ikke noe klokere av dennne...

https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/Home/Details/BMG396372051

Nå bikket vi 10 dollar i US. Psykologisk viktig kanskje?

81,77, skuffende dag på OSE. Fint med litt trøkk i US ikveld

Golden Ocean Group (GOGL) Hits 52-Week High, Can the Run Continue?

Golden Ocean Group (GOGL) is at a 52-week high, but can investors hope for more gains in the future? We take a look at the company's fundamentals for clues.

Have you been paying attention to shares of Golden Ocean Group (GOGL)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 6.7% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $9.95 in the previous session. Golden Ocean Group has gained 21.1% since the start of the year compared to the 3.6% move for the Zacks Transportation sector and the 2.5% return for the Zacks Transportation - Shipping industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has an impressive record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on August 17, 2018, Golden Ocean Group reported EPS of $0.07 versus consensus estimate of $0.03 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 42.51%.

For the current fiscal year, Golden Ocean Group is expected to post earnings of $0.49 per share on $470.53 million in revenues. This represents a 2550% change in EPS on a 1.83% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $0.68 per share on $477.77 million in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 39.46% and 1.54%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

Golden Ocean Group may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

Golden Ocean Group has a Value Score of C. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are B and B, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 20.1X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 14.4X versus its peer group's average of 5.3X. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Golden Ocean Group currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Golden Ocean Group passes the test. Thus, it seems as though Golden Ocean Group shares could have a bit more room to run in the near term.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/golden-ocean-group-gogl-hits-134001539.html

Shorten i GOGL ble igår økt med 0,65%. Shortregisteret er alltid en dag forsinket. Mulig de bruker GOGL som hedge mot andre posisjoner.

Der var det noe som skurret for meg;
antall aksjer shortet var før ca 1,7 mill tilsvarende 1,19 %. Nå omfatter shorten ca 1,5 mill aksjer og representerer prosentuelt 1,84 %
????

Opp 0,8% til USD 9,95 i New York i natt, var over USD 10 ett par ganger. Scorpio, Star Bulk, Safe Bulkers og de fleste andre gikk ned. Ser ut til at det går bra med GOGL for tiden :-).

Australia expects resource exports to hit record $182 billion in 2018-2019
in Dry Bulk Market,Freight News 02/10/2018

Australia’s government expects the nation’s resource and energy exports to hit a record of A$252 billion (£139.5 billion) in 2018-2019, buoyed by climbing prices for commodities such as natural gas and by a weaker Australian dollar.

However, the country’s Department of Industry also said in a report that the value of such exports would edge back to around A$238 billion in 2019-2020 even as volumes rise again, pulled down as growing global supply and concerns over demand pressure prices. The figure for 2017-18 was A$227 billion.

“While global economic growth, industry production and manufacturing output have continued to grow strongly so far in 2018, there are some concerning signs for resource and energy commodity producers, particularly with rising global trade tensions,” the department said in the report, released on Tuesday.

China and the United States have been bogged down in a tit-for-tat trade dispute that has hit global markets and stoked worries over the outlook for the global economy.

China buys just over half of Australia’s commodity exports, followed by Japan, then South Korea.

Australia expects prices for steelmaking material iron ore to fall to around $52 a tonne on a free on board basis in the 2019 calendar year and $51 a tonne in 2020, as China’s steel production moderates, down from $59.40 this year.

Still, Australia’s iron ore exports are expected to increase to 878 million tonnes in 2019-2020 from 869 million tonnes this financial year and 849 million tonnes in 2017-2018, driven by a ramp up in production from the country’s largest producers.

But the overall value of iron ore exports is expected to drop to $56 billion in 2019-2020 from $61 billion in 2017-18.

The government said prices for metallurgical coal would average $159 a tonne in the 2019 calendar year, trimming a forecast drop to $156.80 that it made in June. That would also be down from the $201 a tonne it sees for 2018.

It also said that prices for the commodity would average $145 a tonne in 2020, less than an earlier forecast of $147.90.

For the first time, the department offered an outlook for lithium, used to make batteries for electric cars. Australia accounts for 17 percent of the world’s lithium production.

Australia’s exports of spodumene, the raw material for lithium, are expected to rise to around $1.1 billion by 2020, from $780 million in 2017 and $117 million in 2012.

Five large plants are planned or under construction in the state of Western Australia that will turn spodumene into intermediate products for the lithium industry such as lithium carbonate or hydroxide.

That investment pipeline will ensure Australia shifts rapidly beyond concentrate production to becoming a refiner of “significant scale” by the early 2020s, the government said.

Source: Reuters (Reporting by Melanie Burton; Editing by Joseph Radford)

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/australia-expects-resource-exports-to-hit-record-182-billion-in-2018-2019/

De siste 10 børsdager har ratene på cape skutt i været med 24,2%. Kursen på Gogl har kun gått 11,47%, så her har vi masse å gå på.

Nå er ikke alle skipene i spot, så regnestykket er nok litt mer komplisert

Kursen falt jo sammen med fallende rater, selv om ikke alle skip går i spot. Så det er ikke så utrolig avansert!

BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS +0,5% TIL USD 19.319/DAG
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks er opp 0,5 prosent til 19.319 pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange onsdag.

Re: Laser kl 23:47.
Her er det nok lagt inn feil i formelen.
Prosenten skal være 1,0838, eller 1,08

Riktig, for eksponeringen er redusert og ikke økt.

Alt av bulk stiger unntatt GOGL! Var den fullpriset allerede?

Niks, men smør deg med litt tålmodighet - det kommer fine utbytter og antageligvis også ytterligere rateøkning. Asset value skal antageligvis også opp.

Traderpengene brukes vel på Jin akkurat nå, inntil shorterne plutselig tar penga deres.

Her kommer ganske heftige stimuli til cape-ratene!!

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/china-shifts-stimulus-to-infrastructure-supportive-of-capesize-freight/

Ja, dette har vært kjent i markedet en tid. Men i GOGL er det ratene i ferien som styrer kursen. Hva som skjer fremover, er uten betydning ser det ut til. Så da får vi bare vente på at kursen skal følge ratene frem til jul. Dvs kraftig nordover.

Nå ligger alt til rette for at vi skal opp mot 100. Last opp

Skjønner ikke de som selger på lavt 77-tall! Enten kjøpe på disse nivåene, eller i det minste selge over 81!

China Shifts Stimulus To Infrastructure, Supportive Of Capesize Freight
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 05/10/2018

China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment has opened the door to a substantial increase in the use of coal for power production in the country’s northern provinces who will now be allowed to set their own winter output curbs for heavy industry.

‘Local authorities should carry out production cuts based on their individual situation and refrain from adopting blanket cuts,’ the Ministry said in its final plan released before the weekend.

The most coal intensive of all Chinese industries is the steel sector, which in turn responds rapidly to changes in construction and infrastructure spending.

According to the OECD Chinese steel mill capacity dropped 100 million tonnes from 1.15 billion tonnes in 2015 to 1.05 million tons in 2017 which does not include an estimated 140 million tonnes of illicit production, since shuttered by authorities seeking to curb pollution and drive efficiencies in a sector heavily dominated by State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). Steel exports have dropped 13 percent to 47.2 million tonnes so far this year.

The Australian Governments Office of the Chief Economist, today said China’s steel market is about to hit its peak in 2018, but will shrink next year as local demand drops.

OCE said iron ore export earnings are forecast to decline 7.8 percent from A$60.4 billion in 2018-19 to A$55.7 billion in 2019-20, mainly due to lower prices but that iron ore will however, remain Australia’s biggest export earner in 2019-20.

Strong demand persists however, thought to emanate largely from domestic infrastructure spending and One-Belt-One-Road projects. Coupled with the lower production capacity, this demand has substantially boosted the profitability of steel makers, driving up the cost of steel and keeping the price of iron ore elevated.

The mill closures, and in particular the illicit production volumes shuttered during 2016 and 2017 combined with a ‘free flow’ production schedule over the winter months is now likely to cause a flood of steel into the local markets and abroad.

Going into next year as steel demand from housing construction skews to a slower growth trajectory, Beijing is increasing its spending on infrastructure including more than 75 million tonnes of construction steel needed to build subway networks in several large Chinese cities. Some will hit the export markets.

This stimulus package in all but name is very supportive of iron ore and Capesize iron ore transportation from both Australia (C5) and Brazil (C3) over the next few months, as mills will be looking to restock their iron ore inventory before the winter.
Source: FreightWaves

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/china-shifts-stimulus-to-infrastructure-supportive-of-capesize-freight/

South American exports help shipping industry offset trade war fallout
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 05/10/2018

Exports from South America are helping the shipping industry to fend off the effects of the U.S.-China trade war, the chief of shipping information provider Baltic Exchange said in an interview.

Mark Jackson, CEO of the 274-year-old London-based organization which is wholly owned by Singapore Exchange, said rates in the bulk freight market were holding firm and goods continued to flow despite the imposition by Washington and Beijing of tit for tat tariffs. But he conceded that the growing wave of trade protectionism could disrupt traditional shipping routes.

Jackson told the Nikkei Asian Review in an interview that grain export volume from the U.S. to China had fallen in reaction to the 25% tariffs imposed on products such as soybeans. Yet exports from South America have increased, he said. Rates remained solid because the overall volume of cargo remained strong. “Shipping, because it is a very global marketplace, reacts very fast [to the new rules],” Jackson said. “It is very hard to contain trade.”

Jackson’s view is shared by Jayendu Krishna, director of Drewry Maritime Advisors. “Total traded volume of soybeans, grains and coal, the three largest traded commodities between the U.S. and China, is just about 1% of total global dry bulk trade,” Krishna said. “Therefore, the potential for the dry bulk market to get severely affected due to the trade war is limited.”

The Baltic Dry Index, Baltic Exchange’s main index for tracking the cost of shipping dry bulk cargo, has been on a recovery track since it hit the lowest level in its three-decade-plus history in early 2016. Despite a weak spell in August, things are still looking up.

Industry watchers expect the index to head higher due to a tighter supply of ships coupled with healthy demand. Maritime research consultancy Drewry sees dry bulk shipping demand growing 2.7% per annum over the next five years.

A strong global economy has helped the shipping market bounce back from its crisis in 2016. Though oversupply has not been completely wiped out, Jackson observed that “the amount of new building of ships is very slow.”

Nonetheless, with the trade tensions fueling uncertainty, interest in freight rate information is increasing, he added. Baltic, started releasing grain freight indexes in July for the new routes from the U.S. Gulf to China, as well as from South America to China.

Baltic traces its history back to 1744 when sea merchants gathered in a London coffee shop to exchange news on chartering vessels. Its indexes are used as bench marks for freight or ship charter rates, as settlement tools in freight futures trading, or simply to understand the health of the shipping market.

Singapore Exchange, or SGX, acquired the operation in November 2016 for 87 million pounds ($108 million at the time). The bourse wanted to cultivate the maritime financial derivatives market. Since then, the storied London institution has been focusing on Asia expansion.

In the first year after the acquisition, Baltic’s individual members — ship owners, vessel operators, commodity traders, brokers and so on — increased by about 300, of which about 100 came from Asia, Jackson said.

Currently, Baltic counts 602 corporate members, with 126 from Asia. It welcomed its first Vietnamese member in 2018, and Jackson said new members from countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and Japan have come aboard too.

Along with access to freight indexes as well as dispute settlement services, being a Baltic member confers a certain status within the industry. Jackson said the organization aims to attract more Asian members with new services.

One example is an escrow service, where the organization acts as a trusted agent for members’ ship purchase transactions.
The service is to be offered from Singapore, starting this month. Baltic will hold deposits paid by the buyer — often several million dollars — to make the process simpler than having to use a bank. The decision to begin in Singapore was made because “[Asia] is where most ship purchase transactions are taking place,” Jackson explained.

The plan is to expand the service to Tokyo within two years, where secondhand ship transactions are active.

“We are leveraging on Baltic’s brand and trusted position in the shipping marketplace, and on SGX’s knowledge of running a financial marketplace,” Jackson said.

Baltic also is working to launch new indexes geared to Asian needs. A new liquefied natural gas index will go live in October. Covering the route from Gladstone, Australia, to Tokyo, the new gauge is to provide a benchmark for spot charter rates for LNG carriers, given increased spot trading of LNG in Asian countries including Japan.

On the container shipping side, Baltic tied up with Freightos, a Hong Kong-based online freight marketplace, to launch a series of container freight indexes in April.

These new initiatives are the result of a long-term strategic vision for Baltic, now that it has SGX as its owner, according to Jackson. “We can take a bit more business risk, and start investing for the future and looking at a longer horizon.”
Source: Nikkei

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/south-american-exports-help-shipping-industry-offset-trade-war-fallout/

Denne kommer nok med en kraftig rekyl, så det er bare å ta det med ro

Atlantic Panamax grains freight hits near 4-year high on bunkers
in International Shipping News 08/10/2018


Panamax grains cargo freight rates from the East Coast of South America have reached near four-year highs and are set to go even higher in mid-October as bunker fuel prices continue to soar, market sources said.
IFO 380 CST was assessed up $10 to $532/mt in Santos on Thursday, up 22% since September 5. The Santos to Qingdao, 60,000 mt grains route was assessed at $39.25/mt on Thursday and Friday, the highest since S&P Global Platts began assessing the route in December 2014.
“Owners may soon be asking well into the $18,000s/day on time charter for Panamax vessels from the ECSA,” a ship broker source said. “Especially at a time when bunker fuel prices are so high. Owners are asking crazy numbers to try and hedge against the bunker increases — we could see the voyage rate hit $40/mt by next week.”

Interesant å se at kursen stiger 1,32%, selv om 60% av alle handler er initiert av selgere.