Zenith Energy - Analysis June 2021
I have spent the last few evenings going over my workings and putting together a list of what we should all expect from Zenith over the next few months. I apologise in advance because this is going to be a very long set of posts.
For those who cannot be bothered to read through 5 or 6 pages of text the main points to take note of are the many different things that are expected to happen in the near future. These are as follows:
1. Zenith should carry out a Tunisian work/development program that is aiming to deliver an extra 1,000 bopd (approx) to the company once all is complete (and assuming that everything is successful). This work programme should be starting very soon.
2. The company should finalise its ownership of SLK by the end of this month and once this is done will have access to $3.7 million (net) worth of oil (as well as the additional $1.7 million from oil stored at Essaouia) â total $5.4 million.
3. The company should receive approval on the Tilapia2 license by the end of next month. At the same time, I would expect them to receive a repayment plan on the $5.7 million owed by the SNPC (less the signing fee for Tilapia 2).
4. The company should hear something about the Nigeria marginal field bid as well as potentially acquiring other Nigerian asset(s) that are unconnected to this.
5. The company should also hear something on the additional Congo licenses that they were talking about.
6. The reserves report should be issued over the next quarter an certainly as part of the annual report in August.
7. Once the Tunisian workover program is under way the company should prove that they can finally deliver on the long-term promise of funding development through debt.
For those who want more detail â enjoy the following essay!
Best wishes,
MG
For those who cannot be bothered to read through 5 or 6 pages of text the main points to take note of are the many different things that are expected to happen in the near future. These are as follows:
1. Zenith should carry out a Tunisian work/development program that is aiming to deliver an extra 1,000 bopd (approx) to the company once all is complete (and assuming that everything is successful). This work programme should be starting very soon.
2. The company should finalise its ownership of SLK by the end of this month and once this is done will have access to $3.7 million (net) worth of oil (as well as the additional $1.7 million from oil stored at Essaouia) â total $5.4 million.
3. The company should receive approval on the Tilapia2 license by the end of next month. At the same time, I would expect them to receive a repayment plan on the $5.7 million owed by the SNPC (less the signing fee for Tilapia 2).
4. The company should hear something about the Nigeria marginal field bid as well as potentially acquiring other Nigerian asset(s) that are unconnected to this.
5. The company should also hear something on the additional Congo licenses that they were talking about.
6. The reserves report should be issued over the next quarter an certainly as part of the annual report in August.
7. Once the Tunisian workover program is under way the company should prove that they can finally deliver on the long-term promise of funding development through debt.
For those who want more detail â enjoy the following essay!
Best wishes,
MG
Redigert 10.06.2021 kl 14:32
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Herman*
19.06.2021 kl 17:08
3375
Om ett Är? 2-3 milliarder aksjer avhengig av ambisjonsnivÄ. Skal de raskt opp til 20000 f/d vil de trenge hele verktÞyskrinet av finansieringskilder-ogsÄ EK. Men verdien av et selskap som produser 20 000 f/d vil jo vÊre betydelig.
Nano Rekyl
19.06.2021 kl 14:46
3463
Med utgangspunkt i dagens antall aksjer i selskapet eller ved 3 milliarder aksjer? Da tenker jeg pÄ kursen!
Herman*
19.06.2021 kl 14:26
3480
Jeg forstÄr ikke protestene mot Ä kalle zenith for en lotto aksje. Jeg vil faktisk si at aksjen er et kroneksempel pÄ en lotto aksje. PÄ den ene siden sÄ jobber Zena i meget korrupte land, har en dÄrlig opersjonell track record, og en kontroversiell CEO. Dette er faktorer som taler i mot selskapets suksess. Men, de har en genial motstrÞms strategi om Ä kjÞpe lisenser pÄ billigsalg i en periode der mange ledere ikke en gang vurderer Ä fly rundt i Afrika, og mange energiselskaper prioriterer bort vanskelige land nÄr de en gang mÄ prioritere bort deler av virksomheten for Ä allokere ressurser til fornybar energi. Videre, har selskapet allerede skaffet seg noen lisenser og venter pÄ bekreftelse pÄ flere-en av dem (Tilapia II) er en company maker med en antatt verdi flere ganger hÞyere enn dagens market cap. PÄ grunn av disse faktorene, mener jeg kursen om ett Är kan ligge pÄ alt fra fire-fem Þre til 70-100 Þre. Hvis selskapet klarer Ä etablere en solid produksjon i flere land, vil de ikke vÊre en lotto aksje. Da er risikoen og oppsiden redusert til et mer normalt nivÄ.
Hektor
19.06.2021 kl 13:34
3531
TSGarp, hvorfor spy ut med lotto osv? Er det for Ä kjÞpe mer og med slike kommentarer mÄ du vell komme med argumenter.
Jeg er ikke en av de som er interessert i kursutvikling time for time. Det er bare Ä sjekke historikken, som du selv skriver. SkjÞnner ikke hvorfor du er irritert over alt pisspreiket. For det fÞrste deltar du selv med dette nÄ, og for det andre finnes det en lukket trÄd som er ganske seriÞs. Du kan jo bare fÞlge den.
Redigert 19.06.2021 kl 11:57
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KjĂžpte pĂ„ grunn av deg Herbius, fordi du er sĂ„ sjarmerende đ€źđ€źđ€źđđđ
Men har virkelig ikke investert mye her. Hadde litt gevinst til overs, sÄ tenkte jeg Ä kjÞpe en lottokupong. SÄ absolutt amatÞr ja. Det er vel ikke lov det?
Men har virkelig ikke investert mye her. Hadde litt gevinst til overs, sÄ tenkte jeg Ä kjÞpe en lottokupong. SÄ absolutt amatÞr ja. Det er vel ikke lov det?
Herbius
19.06.2021 kl 11:45
3575
SpĂžrgsmĂ„let er vel nĂŠrmere sĂ„, hvorfor har de ABER kĂžbt aktien đđđ
Og derfor, AMATĂRER đđ Fordi de ikke aner hvad de har kĂžbt đ
Og derfor, AMATĂRER đđ Fordi de ikke aner hvad de har kĂžbt đ
Konjagi
19.06.2021 kl 11:44
3553
Det er nok bare en hÄndfull av dere som dreper alle gode diskusjoner med dette tullet. Dere vet det selv og historikken ligger i de fleste trÄdene. Har ikke sÄ mye Ä si for hvilke aksje man er i, nÄr man ser litt bakover i de ulike trÄdene
Redigert 19.06.2021 kl 11:44
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Har vel noe med AC og Zeniths rykte Ä gjÞre. NÄr ryktet er rÊvva og tilliten er lav er det vel sannsynlig at det kommer mye pisspreik fordi ikke mange tar selskapet seriÞst. SÄnn er det. Ikke noe du kan gjÞre med det. Bare noe man mÄ akseptere at kommer med pÄ lasset nÄr man investerer i en sÄnn aksje.
Konjagi
19.06.2021 kl 10:40
3610
Herbius skrev Det simple ord er, AMATĂRER đđđđ
AmatÞrer eller ikke amatÞrer. Det som irriterer meg grenselÞst (og sikkert flere med meg), er at alle trÄdene, som starter med godt innhold for gode diskusjoner, ender opp i "pisspreik" og kursutvikling time for time, og innlegg om den enkelte skal kjÞpe/selge. Ta dere sammen, og ikke Þdelegg trÄdene med dette vÄset.
Beklager "utblÄsingen"!
Beklager "utblÄsingen"!
Nano Rekyl
19.06.2021 kl 10:10
3621
Herbius skrev Det simple ord er, AMATĂRER đđđđ
Blir spennende Ă„ se hva som skjer til uka som kommer nĂ„đđđ ligger det noe i postkassa med et reisebrev fra vĂ„r venn AC med noe fra Congo!
Ha ellers en fin helg alle sammen!
Ha ellers en fin helg alle sammen!
Aldara
18.06.2021 kl 23:56
3799
HÄper heller Gullhaugen gÄr glipp av en plutselig oppgang! Det KAN nemlig skje i disse tider! Hadde egentlig vÊrt til pass nÄr man vingler og ikke sitter rolig i bÄten!
Konjagi
18.06.2021 kl 22:49
3793
Gullhaugen skrev Lurer pÄ en ny inngang snart pÄ 0.0980. Tenker 3 millioner aksjer.
Ja stakkars deg Gullhaugen...kjÞp nÄ whatever 3 eller 10 mill. WHO cares
Gullhaugen
18.06.2021 kl 20:20
3835
Lurer pÄ en ny inngang snart pÄ 0.0980. Tenker 3 millioner aksjer.
Konjagi
18.06.2021 kl 20:08
3851
Stakkars usle tullinger som sitter pĂ„ dette forumet og prater tĂ„keprat 24/7. Denne aksjen og dette selskapet utvikles skritt for skritt i et tempo, som sannsynligvis ikke sĂ„ mange av dere aner rekkevidden av. Ta det med knusende ro og har dere mulighet for Ă„ avvente utviklingen sĂ„ vil dere tjene pĂ„ det. Pust med magen i frisk luft đ€Ł
Barneskirenn
18.06.2021 kl 17:49
3885
Hadde vÊrt fint med en investorcall/update fra AC om fremgang/situasjon/standings i Tunisia og Kongo pt, nÄ som det virker Ä dra seg videre ut i tid (dog regnet med det fra fÞr jeg investerte, og investerte ytterligere i senere tid).
Kan vel vÊre lottoaksje likevel? AltsÄ, gitt ACs rykte.... Jepp, lotto.
Nano Rekyl
18.06.2021 kl 15:37
3992
Lisensavtaler er en ting! Men jeg husker bestemt at de har produserende felt allerede, eller husker jeg feil? Om det er kun disse lisensene du baserer deg pÄ sÄ mÄ du ta deg et dyp dykk Ä lese deg opp pÄ hva selskapet faktisk har! Ha ellers en fortreffelig aften! PS det er snart popcorn tid!!!
Enig, lotto
Zenith er definitivt ein lotto aksje.
Alt avhenger pÄ lisensavtaler i korrupte land.
Coinflip
Alt avhenger pÄ lisensavtaler i korrupte land.
Coinflip
citius
18.06.2021 kl 14:12
5555
Lotto listen er slik
Vow: -1,5 prosent
poLight: 5,5 prosent
Zaptec: -8,1 prosent
Lifecare -19,7 prosent
SoftOx Solutions: -13,8 prosent
Seadrill: 4,4 prosent
Norwegian: -72,5 prosent
Slettet brukerskrev Kan ikke lese pga betalingsmur. Hva med Ă„ sitere
i don't think it mention Zenith there as it was "soft sale" last Friday around 0.1150.
Kan ikke lese pga betalingsmur. Hva med Ă„ sitere
Barneskirenn
18.06.2021 kl 12:41
5687
Excactly! We need these confirmations before Mr. Myrseth & co even want to consider ZENA.
This is Africa. Things can turn quick. It looks positive now, but its still huge risk waiting for these approvals.
This is Africa. Things can turn quick. It looks positive now, but its still huge risk waiting for these approvals.
Herman*
18.06.2021 kl 12:28
5653
Needed cash. I think there is no point to analyze these low volume trades. People are hesitant to buy because they want more proof that the company knows what they are doing. Tilapia and SLK do not formally belong to Zenith, and the Tunisian assets require intervention/work over. At any time (theoretically) we can get Tilapia and SLK confirmed, and the share price should move towards 30 Þre and still be discounted. Then we gave progress in Tunisia and well 103c during 2h that can boost the share significantly. Then there is the chance of 1-2 new l arge licenses. The company has to deliver and improve their visibility, then the share price will «rock our world)
Redigert 18.06.2021 kl 12:28
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yes, but it is fact there is trading system which allows hidden volume or robot trading which make small investor irritate. Many just buy and sell on signal from investment firms on technical analysis many, use norskbull. Here technical signal kills rise in share price for 3 new field bought in April and May.
Redigert 18.06.2021 kl 12:14
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I have my data to guessing that 17.06 9:57PM 1Million, 2:52 PM - 1Million, 18.06- 9:13 to 9:21 1 Million , and 10:39 -1Million.
Galv
18.06.2021 kl 12:04
5681
Thanks viking
Today i learned something new about hiden volum
đ€đ
Today i learned something new about hiden volum
đ€đ
do you know why the person lost faith? or did the person simply require cash?
viking: not my intention to be rude. but this forum is riddled with speculations presented as facts and i don't like it. and as herman just wrote, that seems to be the case here also :o)
viking: not my intention to be rude. but this forum is riddled with speculations presented as facts and i don't like it. and as herman just wrote, that seems to be the case here also :o)
Redigert 18.06.2021 kl 11:59
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Herman*
18.06.2021 kl 11:30
5760
Yes, the Baltic Viking is wrong. The player that sold a few million shares is not trying to buy at 10.7 Ăžre. How do I know this for a fact? I know the person who sold-nothing dramatic there. As a big shareholder, Viking should be in touch with AC directly-expressing the need for material news. ( as opposed to hopes, plans and dreams)
it is simple most of the time, if open volume is having set value 98000 will appear after same after completing order of 98000 and shows flat line graph, second is if open volume is appearing in order (for me on E24) before 9 am or after 16.20 if it is first value in sale or buy. most of them set around 100T for Zenith. I am not afraid of my investment as my average is around 0.07 and Tunisian one field sufficient to defend that value for next few years.
Redigert 18.06.2021 kl 11:31
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how would you know that if the volume is hidden? the answer is that you don't know,and that you are only speculating. guessing that you feel the need to justify your investment following the previous day's drop.
look like someone sold around 3 million share from yesterday and try to buy with open volume at 0.1070
From last one year they haven't report sell of single barrel of oil. I think management is not interested to notify in future too.
Aldara skrev Aksjen fra Helvete! Kursen skuffer hele tiden! 24-7!
Folk tror jo zena skal opp i skyene bare pga hĂžy oljepris.
Selger de i det hele tatt olje per dags dato??
Tror de gikk i pluss pÄ munnbind da
Selger de i det hele tatt olje per dags dato??
Tror de gikk i pluss pÄ munnbind da
When the hell are they going to report something meaningful
Barneskirenn
17.06.2021 kl 16:35
6391
Aldara skrev Aksjen fra Helvete! Kursen skuffer hele tiden! 24-7!
Buhu.. Dette er aksjemarkedet, ikke en veldedighet.
Stockdance
11.06.2021 kl 14:11
7237
You do not have to excuse yourself. I am just pleased to see you could make good use of it.
MarketGunsling
11.06.2021 kl 12:55
7318
Stockdance - your comments have prompted me to write my own piece on the Italian assets in order to complete the overview of everything else. Please excuse me for repeating some of what you said - everything you have mentioned is absolutely correct and I am merely putting it in my own words for the sake of completeness.
Italian Assets
There is no cash value to the Italian assets. According to the 2020 accounts (page 82) the value of property and equipment and the liabilities pretty much cancel themselves out and the revenue is only NOK6 million (ÂŁ500k) and this is in itself cancelled out by expenses. The Italian assets basically either break even or lose a small amount of money each year and so on a purely balance-sheet basis it would make sense to get rid of them.
However, as has been mentioned, in the Stig Myrseth interview on 6th may 2021 Andrea Cattaneo made it very clear that the value of the Italian assets is not in their financial side but more as a marketing side for Zenith when it comes to acquiring operatorship of future assets.
He pointed out that the fact that we were: (a) operating gas fields there (b) working with condensate (c) successfully delivering gas to electricity in the real world and this all gave us operatorship experience in different areas. This is important because when the company is negotiating with oil ministers in Congo / Tunisia / Nigeria etc they only want to grant license concessions to companies that can operate them themselves and they only want to be dealing with operators who already have experience in the areas that they are pitching for. He said explicitly that when you visit an oil minister they do not ask you âwhere have you been a participant?â they ask you âwhere have you been operator?â because the concessions are often mandated to only go to companies who are operators.
This was already proved when the Congolese delegation came to visit these assets in Italy as part of the Inquiry of Public Utility process and they saw that the company was operating gas fields and that they were already working with the technology for generating electricity from flared gas. This is a process that AC has stated that Zenith is keen to carry out in the Congo and it fits into the countryâs own electricity requirements.
It is for this reason that in the interview AC specifically stated that operatorship of the Italian assets have a significant value to the company that cannot be put on the balance sheet and this is one of the reasons that the company keeps the Italian assets even though outsiders always claim that they have negligible value.
Italian Assets
There is no cash value to the Italian assets. According to the 2020 accounts (page 82) the value of property and equipment and the liabilities pretty much cancel themselves out and the revenue is only NOK6 million (ÂŁ500k) and this is in itself cancelled out by expenses. The Italian assets basically either break even or lose a small amount of money each year and so on a purely balance-sheet basis it would make sense to get rid of them.
However, as has been mentioned, in the Stig Myrseth interview on 6th may 2021 Andrea Cattaneo made it very clear that the value of the Italian assets is not in their financial side but more as a marketing side for Zenith when it comes to acquiring operatorship of future assets.
He pointed out that the fact that we were: (a) operating gas fields there (b) working with condensate (c) successfully delivering gas to electricity in the real world and this all gave us operatorship experience in different areas. This is important because when the company is negotiating with oil ministers in Congo / Tunisia / Nigeria etc they only want to grant license concessions to companies that can operate them themselves and they only want to be dealing with operators who already have experience in the areas that they are pitching for. He said explicitly that when you visit an oil minister they do not ask you âwhere have you been a participant?â they ask you âwhere have you been operator?â because the concessions are often mandated to only go to companies who are operators.
This was already proved when the Congolese delegation came to visit these assets in Italy as part of the Inquiry of Public Utility process and they saw that the company was operating gas fields and that they were already working with the technology for generating electricity from flared gas. This is a process that AC has stated that Zenith is keen to carry out in the Congo and it fits into the countryâs own electricity requirements.
It is for this reason that in the interview AC specifically stated that operatorship of the Italian assets have a significant value to the company that cannot be put on the balance sheet and this is one of the reasons that the company keeps the Italian assets even though outsiders always claim that they have negligible value.
Stockdance
11.06.2021 kl 07:36
7559
Thank you for a FANTASTIC analysis. It is also great to see that it has not been «polluted» by nonsens. One aspect I miss is gas to electricity and the importance of continuing a small scale production merely for demonstrative purposes. In Aqualightâs thread I have earlier referred to the interview with Mr Myrseth where this was stressed:
« I siste intervju med Myrseth forklarer AC fra ca 35. min. betydningen av Ä vÊre operatÞr. Han sier at nÄr de gÄr til «ministry» ikke fÄr spÞrsmÄl om hvor de har vÊrt deltaker, men om hvor de har vÊrt operatÞr. Dette er ogsÄ grunnen til at de har valgt Ä fortsette som operatÞr i Italia. Selv om de har liten produksjon kan de likevel bevise at de har teknisk kompetanse. Gjennom operatÞrskapet i Italia kan Zenith bevise at de ogsÄ har kompetanse pÄ elektrifisering av gass.
Senere i intervjuet gir AC et eksempel pÄ dette hvor han sier at det var viktig for den kongolesiske delegasjonen Ä komme til Italia for Ä se at Zenith har kontroll pÄ deres operasjoner der, hvor blant annet HMS her som ellers i oljeindustrien er viktig. I Kongo vurderer de Ä bruke Zeniths kompetanse til Ä lage elektrisitet av flaring (norsk.: fakling) for Ä utnytte energien fra etterforbrenningen.»
That a congolese delegation goes to Italy indicates to me a strong interest in Zenith.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration provides a descpription of the countryâs current energy status.
https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/COG
«The Congolese government wants to attract new investment and to develop its hydrocarbon resources by making changes to its legal and regulatory framework that would create more favorable terms for operators and investors. We assess these efforts to be insufficient in attracting investor interest in exploiting the Congoâs resources in the short term.»
Which fields would in this context be more attractive?
« I siste intervju med Myrseth forklarer AC fra ca 35. min. betydningen av Ä vÊre operatÞr. Han sier at nÄr de gÄr til «ministry» ikke fÄr spÞrsmÄl om hvor de har vÊrt deltaker, men om hvor de har vÊrt operatÞr. Dette er ogsÄ grunnen til at de har valgt Ä fortsette som operatÞr i Italia. Selv om de har liten produksjon kan de likevel bevise at de har teknisk kompetanse. Gjennom operatÞrskapet i Italia kan Zenith bevise at de ogsÄ har kompetanse pÄ elektrifisering av gass.
Senere i intervjuet gir AC et eksempel pÄ dette hvor han sier at det var viktig for den kongolesiske delegasjonen Ä komme til Italia for Ä se at Zenith har kontroll pÄ deres operasjoner der, hvor blant annet HMS her som ellers i oljeindustrien er viktig. I Kongo vurderer de Ä bruke Zeniths kompetanse til Ä lage elektrisitet av flaring (norsk.: fakling) for Ä utnytte energien fra etterforbrenningen.»
That a congolese delegation goes to Italy indicates to me a strong interest in Zenith.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration provides a descpription of the countryâs current energy status.
https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/COG
«The Congolese government wants to attract new investment and to develop its hydrocarbon resources by making changes to its legal and regulatory framework that would create more favorable terms for operators and investors. We assess these efforts to be insufficient in attracting investor interest in exploiting the Congoâs resources in the short term.»
Which fields would in this context be more attractive?
Hektor
11.06.2021 kl 01:21
7712
Slettet brukerskrev Meget bra! Har du noe kursmÄl?
Vell, skal si vi fÄr en fin stigning nÄr det bygges stein pÄ stein. Det er sÄ mye positive triggere. Dette skader vell heller ikke pÄ sikt:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/NNPC-Lack-Of-Investment-Could-Push-Oil-To-200.html
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/NNPC-Lack-Of-Investment-Could-Push-Oil-To-200.html
Meget bra! Har du noe kursmÄl?
Konjagi
10.06.2021 kl 19:45
8055
Thanks alot MarketGunsling for a valuable summary of information. And just as a reminder to all of us, all of these possibilities are created over the last year or so.
Aqualight
10.06.2021 kl 18:11
8172
Brilliant work MG đȘ Thank you -
Aqualight đ©đ°đłđŽđŹđ§
Aqualight đ©đ°đłđŽđŹđ§