Rob-1 workover value to zenith exciting times

TheLondonOiler
ZENA 21.10.2021 kl 11:49 12776

I personally see the value bigger than we think. With a ramp in production in Tunisia alone we should be sitting at double where we are now, with a Tilapia sealed and delivered update multiples, very excited to be a Zenith investor
Herbius
21.10.2021 kl 12:47 6583

Hvis de lykkes denne gang, har de bevist til markedet at mulighederne er enorme fremadrettet.

Så succesen er større ind folk lige regner med, hvis de lykkes snakker vi ikke kun fat/ kr, men at de ikke længere er en Fiasko 👍🙏
Oilinvestor
21.10.2021 kl 12:58 6531

Økning på 60-80 fat er ikke all verden, men at de kan oppnå en suksessfull workover operasjon, vil demonstrere at selskapet innehar tekniske kompetansen til å videreutvikle feltene sine. Selskapet har kommunisert at ROB1 vil gi viktig informasjon når de nå skal gå igang med ROB 3, hvor økningen vil være +200 boe/d.
Ezzaouia skal også igjennom et borreprogram i Desember som også vil gi et betydelig løft i den daglige produksjon.*

Suksessfull ROB1 vil gi oss en kraftig pekepinn på hvor veien går videre og samt tilliten til selskapet tekniske evner vil gjenvinnes.


*e shortly also look forward to delivering news regarding planned drilling activities in the Ezzaouia concession, following agreement with our local partners, which we hope to begin prior to the close of 2021.
https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/540107

Planned field production optimisation and workover activities are expected to increase Ezzaouia gross production to 1,000 bopd (potentially resulting in a production of 450 bopd net to Zenith).
https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/527660
Redigert 21.10.2021 kl 13:03 Du må logge inn for å svare
Herbius
21.10.2021 kl 13:24 6465

Såååå enig 👍👍

Plans to drill an infill well in Robbana (“ROB-3”), first announced on June 10, 2021, remain unchanged and the Company is pleased to confirm that, having carried out an inventory inspection, the long-lead equipment required for the drilling of ROB-3 are already on location and meet the prescribed technical and safety standards.
Oilinvestor
21.10.2021 kl 13:29 6449

Short term (1-3 month)
Follow drilling activity is expected before year end:

Rob 1 (result pending): 60-80 boe/d
Rob 3 ( Drilling TBA): 100-150 boe/d
El bibane (EBB3): Offshore field 500-600 boe/d (potentially, last produced)
Ezzaouia (drilling ETA before Year end): 250 boe/d

Successful workover = 910- +1000/boe/d. Yearly revenue $26-28mill

Todays production: 650 boe/d (incl. SLK)
Herbius
21.10.2021 kl 14:17 6357

Ja og vi ligger på en M-Cap på 180 mio. 🙈
Oilinvestor
21.10.2021 kl 14:22 6341

"Yte før man kan nyte"

Alt ligger hos selskapet, leverer de sakene, så kommer belønningen!
Herbius
21.10.2021 kl 14:34 6308

Ja de skal leverer varen nu 👍

Men prøv og tænk hvad AC kan udrette med penge kontoen 🙈😃🛢🛢🛢

Kan blive en eventyrlig rejse..
Aldara
21.10.2021 kl 14:47 6261

Nå må dere slutte å selge under 13 øre jævla nolduser! Vi får jo ikke oppgang på denne måten.
TheLondonOiler
21.10.2021 kl 16:12 6224

+0.016 (+13.07%)

I think we have big news coming. Buy time!
Oilinvestor
22.10.2021 kl 09:04 5927

Testing pågår, ingen oppdatering idag tolker jeg (mulig) som at brønnen opplever høyere flow enn først antatt dermed avventer de til stabil flow før de børsmelder.
Bove
22.10.2021 kl 09:31 5847

Enten er det noen som på død og liv må selge, eller så vil noen ha kursen lenger ned.
Ingen med høg kurshorisont selger på dette nivået. Eller kanskje noen som leker seg?

bove
storm.com
22.10.2021 kl 09:40 5804

Når det gjelder melding fra Zenith eller AC så kan melding komme hele døgnet og ikke bare kl 0800 for det har vi opplevd mange ganger. Det kan fort komme i helgen også.
storm.com
22.10.2021 kl 09:41 5834

Når det gjelder melding fra Zenith eller AC så kan melding komme hele døgnet og ikke bare kl 0800 for det har vi opplevd mange ganger. Det kan fort komme i helgen også.
Gullit
22.10.2021 kl 11:15 5734

No skal vi ikke ta av her, men kan det tenkes de ble overrasket av alt for gode resultater og kjører testing ytterligere så de ikke må trekke tilbake meldingen på senere tidspunkt… tror nok de har flow testet en stund allerede..
Oilinvestor
22.10.2021 kl 13:21 5598

Fra london forumet nå:

Another possible driver of investor interest is that the Congo [Brazzaville] Conseil de Ministres is meeting today at 14.00hrs so understandably there is speculation that Tilapia might be on the agenda. The recent increasing frequency of meetings, ie on Oct 7 & 12 indicates a possible end to months of legislative inactivity, so maybe Stev Onanga the new DG of Hydrocarbons will finally present this for ratification by Council. We will know by Monday.
AGEOS
MarketGunsling
22.10.2021 kl 16:11 5572

Robanna-1 Workover.
With oil prices as they are today $83per barrel then the additional 55bopd that should be produced by the ROB-1 workover would be worth $1.6 million per year in gross income. Assuming that the production cost is $23 per barrel then this should be $1.2 million net to Zenith per annum.

However, I think that there is more potential to Robbana than we realise. We know that the only reason that ROB-1 is not already producing 50+ bopd is because the botched well intervention by the previous owners got it stuck at this low rate. The Robanna concession as a whole was discovered in 1988 and peaked at 500bopd production in 1994 even though ROB-1 and ROB-2 were the only two wells ever drilled there. In short, we know that there is plenty of oil at Robbana and it has flowed in large volume in the past.

We also know that that Zenith has plans to drill a third well at Robbana and have said in their RNS that a successful infill well (ROB3) that is planned to be drilled nearby ROB-1 would be expected to produce 200bopd and cost $1.5 million.

These predicted $1.5m cost of the ROB-3 well is really interesting though as it is pretty close in numbers to the $1.2m in net revenue that ROB-1 should deliver if my production cost estimates are correct. This would mean that it would be very easy to get further debt funding from Winance or someone similar to drill ROB-3 and service the debt out of the production from ROB-1. The trick can then be repeated for any additional wells drilled in Robbana.

If Rob-1 produced 50 bopd then it would be worth $1.1 million per annum net to Zenith
If Rob-1 produced 100 bopd then it would be worth $2.2 million per annum net to Zenith
If Rob-3 produced 200bop then with would be worth $4.4 million per annum net to Zenith

If things go well with both this workover and then Rob 3 then for a total expense of $2 million the company could have a profit of $5.5 million per annum from Robanna for the next 5 years plus.

The first step is a successful workover of ROB-1 and company said on October 12th that they expected operations to be completed in 10 days. That was today so we should hear about this any day now.
Herbius
22.10.2021 kl 17:38 5461

Hej MG, tak for en god opdatering 👍

Ja mange begge små, det løber op i store penge til sidst, ligesom gassen fra Italien 👍💰
TheLondonOiler
24.10.2021 kl 21:16 5123

thanks for the write up Market Gun lets hope for news on Robana soon because if positive I see it going up 50% on both the UK and the Norwegian market.
Oilinvestor
25.10.2021 kl 08:19 4771

Bra oppdatering! Arbeidet har gått bra, det var deilig å få bekreftet.
Da er det bare å vente på gode produksjonstall:)
Pessimist1
25.10.2021 kl 08:21 4757

Får krysse fingrene for at produksjonstallene blir bedre enn forventet! :)
Hektor
25.10.2021 kl 08:22 4736

Dette blir bare bedre og bedre. Er følgende meldt tidligere?
Third party geophysical analysis suggests that the Robbana concession has potentially only produced 5-10% of its reserves potential to date.
Redigert 25.10.2021 kl 08:22 Du må logge inn for å svare
Mdg1
25.10.2021 kl 08:25 4736

Det tar vel 2-3 uker før flow er stabil?
Stockdance
25.10.2021 kl 08:26 4768

Det kan vel ikke bli så mye dårligere enn tidligere utgangspunkt:

"It was discovered that the previous sucker rod pump was functioning at only 20% capacity and that the well did not have a tubing hanger installed, in contradiction of the 2012 well report."
Pessimist1
25.10.2021 kl 08:29 4726

Nei, det har du helt rett i!
Mdg1
25.10.2021 kl 08:37 4657

Da står vel ROB-3 for tur?
Pessimist1
25.10.2021 kl 08:42 4619

Det stemmer vel, var vel budsjettert til 1.5 mill dollar å produksjonsmål på anslagsvis 100-150 fat bopd om jeg ikke husker feil.
TheLondonOiler
25.10.2021 kl 08:46 4677

https://www.investegate.co.uk/zenith-energy-ltd/zen/successful-workover-of-rob-1--onshore-tunisia/202110250700141088Q/?fe=1&utm_source=FE%20Investegate%20Alerts&utm_medium=Email&utm_content=Announcement%20Alert%20Mail&utm_campaign=Zenith+Energy+Ltd%20Alert

The wellbore of ROB-1 was cleaned out to the total depth of 2,225 metres and scraping of the casing, which was found to have good integrity, was performed. Once this work was finalised, a new tubing anchor and sucker rod pump supplied by Weatherford were installed. It was discovered that the previous sucker rod pump was functioning at only 20% capacity and that the well did not have a tubing hanger installed, in contradiction of the 2012 well report.



The Company can now confirm that a Weatherford team has successfully installed a new sucker rod pump in ROB-1, which has been tested on surface and adjusted. A period of 36-72 hours is now required to pump out the well killing fluid and water emulsion from the wellbore before oil production will begin to be received.



Andrea Cattaneo, Chief Executive Officer of Zenith, commented:



"We are very pleased with the successful outcome of the ROB-1 workover which has been our inaugural operational engagement in Tunisia. Our team successfully executed the workover and garnered significant insight into the potentially very material upside potential of the Robbana concession.



Third party geophysical analysis suggests that the Robbana concession has potentially only produced 5-10% of its reserves potential to date.



We intend to report flow rates from ROB-1 shortly, once they have stabilised, and we remain cautiously optimistic about the relatively sizeable production uplift we may be able to achieve from ROB-1 against a backdrop of a highly favourable oil price environment."

Looks like a big upgrade in ROB 1, time to add significantly to my holding first thing before the share price moves up. Very exciting times ahead and great work by the Zenith team.
Herbius
25.10.2021 kl 08:49 4655

Det starter bedre ind forventet 👍

Vores primære mål for Robbana er at opnå en daglig produktionshastighed på cirka 200-250 bopd, der skal opnås via den vellykkede overgang af ROB-1 og boring af ROB-3, hvilket repræsenterer en tidobling i forhold til den aktuelle daglige produktion fra koncession.
altinex..
25.10.2021 kl 08:54 4615

Weatherford er noen de beste på dette området
Viking_I
25.10.2021 kl 08:55 4603

$1.5 million for ROB-3 and $0.5 for ROB-1 total production around 200bopd but now we are expecting more from ROB-1 up 100 to 150 bopd. if todays message is right that pump was working 20% and 100% working means 100bopd without workover now it is done so we expect more at least 150 to 200bopd. A production of approximately 100-150 ROB-3 so total now around 300bopd to 400 bopd from Robbana.
Redigert 25.10.2021 kl 08:56 Du må logge inn for å svare
MarketGunsling
25.10.2021 kl 08:56 4582

That RNS is fantastic news. It gives us a substantial amount more detail on what we can expect as production rates from the ROB-1 workover if we are lucky and mathematically this could be an increase in production far beyond anything that we were expecting.

1. Firstly, we know that the workover has been successful and nothing has gone wrong.
2. We know that ROB-1 had originally been producing 50bopd but a botched workover by the previous owners back in 2012 reduced this to 20bopd.
3. We know that the current workover has cleared out nine years worth of paraffin and wax that were blocking the lower well perforations have now been cleared out.
4. We know (and this is the key one) that the well pump was only functioning at 20% of capacity.
5. We know that there were missing elements to the well structure (the tubing hangar) that have now been replaced.
6. We know that in 2-3 days (presumably by Wednesday or Thursday) we will start to receive the new oil production data from ROB-1.

So,, looking at this information we categorically know that ROB-1 is going to flow more oil than it did before the workover simply because of the amount of gunk that has been cleared out and the fact that broken and missing equipment has been replaced to bring the well back up to full working capacity. The big question is: how much extra oil is going to be produced?

I think from having read the RNS that it is an absolute given that we will exceed production of 50bopd, but actually what I am now extremely hopeful about is that we may exceed 100bopd. If the old pump was only functioning at 20% of its capabilities and the well was still producing 20 bopd then it is no stretch to think that a new modern pump working at 100% of its capabilities will easily be able to produce five times as much oil and hit 100bopd.

When you add in the fact that all of the gunk has been cleared out of the well then it is entirely possible that we could be seeing flow rates in excess of 100bopd and we should know by Wednesday.

Andrea is really starting to deliver not just in deal-making but also in the logistics of oil production and Zenith is quietly beginning to generate significant cash flow from operations. When the market catches up with the real potential on this share I think that we have the opportunity to see a share price that is many multiples of the current level. There is so much news to come here in so many different places and only some of it has to come in for it to be completely company-changing.

Roll on Wednesday/Thursday for the first step in this journey.
Gullit
25.10.2021 kl 09:05 4508

Det var jo en gigantisk bonus..
TheLondonOiler
25.10.2021 kl 09:07 4494

Rob 1 is going to be huge more oil and more money for us shareholders. Excellent result by AC!
TheLondonOiler
25.10.2021 kl 09:13 4441

copied from MarketGun

If Rob-1 produced 50 bopd then it would be worth $1.1 million per annum net to Zenith
If Rob-1 produced 100 bopd then it would be worth $2.2 million per annum net to Zenith
If Rob-1 produced 150 bopd then it would be worth $3.3 million per annum net to Zenith
If Rob-1 produced 200bop then with would be worth $4.4 million per annum net to Zenith

$4.4 million from just Rob 1 is superb, with sales in Italy, Tunisia, congo and Nigeria we should be at a multiple of our current share price.
Viking_I
25.10.2021 kl 09:18 4424

One more important thing regarding Robbana and El bibano 2P reserve is considered less than 1MMSTBO SLK is not considered so price target should be upgrade with current oil price and it will cross kr1 if rate considered $6 to $9 per barrel instead of 3 in report.
As per announcement
Reserves (1C) of Robbana which evaluated remaining oil in place as 10.99 MMSTBO.
Reserves (1C) of El Bibane which evaluated remaining oil in place as 25.7 MMSTBO and 6.5 BCF of natural gas.
if we considered 50% as it is already proven now 20 MMSTBO including gas.
using $3 - kr 0.6
using $6- kr 1.2
using $9 - kr 1.8
Redigert 25.10.2021 kl 09:45 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
25.10.2021 kl 09:34 4325

Nå må det handles! Hva tenker vedkommende som selger på 14,8 øre??
TheLondonOiler
25.10.2021 kl 09:36 4307

LATO no one will be selling only buying! this will rise significantly from here!
Herbius
25.10.2021 kl 09:36 4309

Så prøv og tænk hvad der sker når Tilapia kommer 🙈🙏

Men 8 % er fint til at starte med..

Også en fin opdatering der fjerner en hver tvivl om hvad der foregår, Det kan jeg rigtig godt lide 😃
Slettet bruker
25.10.2021 kl 09:37 4311

Sikkert at kursen synker gradvis når ting får roet seg. 🤔