Details on - NW OML141 RSC (Barracuda etc)

MarketGunsling
ZENA 17.11.2021 kl 11:40 30353

NW OML141 RSC is the NW section of license OML141 (Oil Mining License) which is a mining oil license in Nigeria that coversn1,295 km2 in the swamp/shallow waters (depth of less than 25 meters) of the Niger Delta in Nigeria.

ONL141 has an interesting history. It started life as OPL229 (Oil Prospecting License) and 38% of this was originally “bought” by the Chinese state China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation (SINOSURE) in January 2005 who put is into a SPV called Aerd Projects Nigeria Ltd. Less than 16 months later in April 2006 they sold this to the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) for $60 million. They also put an $80 million loan into the projects, spent about $16 million on seismic and drilled two wells (Barracuda in April 2007 and Dila later the same year). Both wells were described by CNOOC as “significant finds” but they did not give any reserve figures.

In August 2008 CNOOC surprised the O&G industry by returning its stake in OML141 to the operator Emerald Energy Resources. When asked why they did this they would only say “There are many blocks we are working on. We move in and out -- it’s very normal. But I can’t comment on any specific block,” however subsequent events have made it clear that this was to do with fears about corruption rather than worries about the block itself. Chinese media reported in April 2008 that SINOSURE’s chief, Tang Ruoxin, was under government investigation on charges of unspecified illegal activities and in 2010 he was sentenced to 14 years in prison for taking bribes. Given that Sinosure paid $30 million for their 38% in 2005 and sold it for $60 million in 2006 you can see why CNOOC may have wanted to get rid of this asset before anyone in the Chinese govt looked too much into why they paid double for this asset and what happened to the money…

Emerald Energy Resources then got involved in a $60 million court case with Sinosure in 2018 https://www.oeclaw.co.uk/images/uploads/documents/China_Export_Judgment.pdf and then had to give back the ONL141 license to the Nigerian government in 2019 due to non-payment of fees https://africaoilgasreport.com/2019/04/farm-in-farm-out/nigerian-government-revokes-licences-of-seven-oil-blocks/ however, over this time NW ONL141 appears to have becaome a license in its own right.

NW ONM141 Zenith is the North West 105 square kilometers of OML141. This area is completely onshore in the marshland as opposed to the actual offshore area and according to their website Noble Hill Network Limited have a risk-service contract executed that means that they will be the exclusive service provider and will provide funding and develop the Northwest 105 square kilometres of OML 141.

We know from Zenith’s RNS of August 31st that NW OML141 contains two discovered fields (Elepa South and Barracuda) which are “drill-ready” and that there is one prospective field that has an estimated 232.7 million barrels of oil. The also say that this has the potential to grow to more than 500 million barrels of Contingent and Prospective Resources with several TCF of prospective natural gas and condensate.

We also know that ADM said in their 18th April 2021 RNS that the first drill target (that they were aiming at when they still had the rights to the asset) was targeting production of 4,000bopd. They claimed that drilling six wells would target production of 23,000bopd and they also gave the details that the opex figure per barrel of oil in this region was $20 per barrel but this could be reduced down to $12 per barrel if the company develops a 12mk pipeline to the Brass Export Terminal. All of this can be seen at: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ADME/completion-of-barracuda-field-transaction-whzmetdfm0mtiqe.html

So clearly the license has great potential. Back in 2006 CNOOC bought Total’s OML-130 block which had recoverable reserves of 600 million barrels for $2.69 billion, and while the NW OML141 is not likely to yield anywhere as much as this, proving up recoverable reserves of 100 million barrels would still be worth hundreds of millions and be life-changing for Zenith and it’s investors.

We have an idea of what it will cost to get hold of a share in the RSC as ADM paid $1.3 million for what they thought was a 35% stake.

We know that there are two well-sites that are ready to go and if the funds and rig were in place then it would be possible to drill before the end of the year (but more realistically this will be in Q1 or Q2 next year).

We also know from AC’s comments in the conference call that we should expect news on this in early December

What we don’t know is:

1) How much of a share the RSC itself gives of the asset as Emerald resources are still marked down as the operator. What exactly doe the RSC give us?
2) How much money we are likely to have to put in to complete the drill.
3) Any details about the previous discovery that was made in Barracuda.
4) Any information about the CPR that ADM have supposedly been working on for the last 6 months.

Hopefully, this will be cleared up when we get the announcement that we have come to a deal with NHNL over the license. This definitely looks like it could be the “big one” that AC promised us a few conference calls ago.

Viking_I
17.11.2021 kl 12:15 11545

As i said before it is huge and many times more than Tilapia II.
ADME RNS dated -23 March 2021
"NHNL has advised the Company that a previous CPR prepared by Ryder Scott (2016) has indicated P50 resources of 1.3 billion barrels of oil in place from two sand reservoir intervals (subject to the production of a new CPR)"
As per Zenith
The NW OML 141 RSC contains two discovered fields and one prospective field with an estimated 232.7 million barrels of discovered oil (Degeconek 2019 CPR) with the potential to grow to more than 500 million barrels of Contingent and Prospective Resources with several TCF of prospective natural gas and condensate."
2P - 1.3billion barrels CPR prepared by Ryder Scott (2016)
2P- 232.7 million barrels to 500 million barrels (Degeconek 2019 CPR)
Without SLK, $5.6 million and with 1.8 billion shares, OML141 gives following value.
Debt - $7 Million
OML-141 - Zenith 116MMBL (50% of 273.7 million barrels )
Tunisia + Tilapia - 19.5 MMBL
Metric EV/2P US$/boe - 3 - Kr - 2.21
Metric EV/2P US$/boe - 6 - Kr 4.43
Metric EV/2P US$/boe - 9 - Kr 6.65
(EV/2P US$/boe range is 2.5 to 18) as Zenith is small company I will go upto 9 with current oil price and with their own rig.

For above calculations please refer page 57 from August 21 report by Allenby change is number of shares increase from 1.4 to 1.8 billion 2P reserve added from Nigeria.
"The initial test will be the success or otherwise of the planned development programme in Tunisia. Assuming signs of success from infill drilling and workovers, we believe the Zenith valuation basis is likely to trend higher. We believe a valuation of US$3/boe might be plausible. This would reflect a discount of approaching 60% to our Africa Oil and Panoro benchmarks."
Redigert 17.11.2021 kl 12:24 Du må logge inn for å svare
Viking_I
17.11.2021 kl 12:23 11504

Declaration well within next 11 working days. 20% stake in OML 141 will give zenith kr1 value with Metric EV/2P US$/boe - 3 (Without SLK ) almost 9 fold increase as per IC, AC is 100 entering into RSA this month end. Why people are selling below 0.12 it time to fill there is 0 chance share price will come down to øre10 but 99% chance to go 9 times more with this announcement.
Redigert 17.11.2021 kl 12:28 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
17.11.2021 kl 12:27 11493

Hva skal til for at Zenith får kommet inn i denne avtalen?
Viking_I
17.11.2021 kl 12:36 11466

It is up to zenith to decide to enter into this agreement or not with investment and production sharing. ADME enter with $1.3 million and with 35% in OML141. AC will surly go further up to 49% with Noble Hill-Network Limited with his exclusivity agreement paying around $2million and drilling cost up to $5million.
zenith will earn $60 million per well per year.
From IC
1) Clarify Nigeria announcement. There is speculation about the ownership of this asset. Is there any comment you can make?

I can only say to investors that we have never made imprecise descriptions of our situation regarding acquisitions. We have declared that OML141 NW is the object of our exclusivity agreement. The fact that this is exclusive means that nobody ekse is there and I have nothing else to add.
Redigert 17.11.2021 kl 12:47 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
17.11.2021 kl 12:51 11407

Har vi pengene klar?
Kan vi låne på pengene?
Viking_I
17.11.2021 kl 14:29 11310

Oil sell from Tunisia $4.5 is there it is not used yet some will go in loan payment. Currently they required around $2million which is with them and drilling money will come from next oil sell from Tunisia, which is $6million worth can be used for drilling. SLK $9 can be used for Tilapia II drilling and EBB3 well. Form Q322 company having $30 to $40 million/ year from Tunisia.
Slettet bruker
17.11.2021 kl 14:37 11281

Men de må få landet avtalen rundt SLK slik at de får ut pengene og produksjonen må opp.

Når de 1000 boe/d pr. dag ved utgang av 31.12.2021? Om man ikke tar med SLK som ikke er landet.
Viking_I
17.11.2021 kl 14:42 11266

$4.5 million and $6million is excluding SLK so don't worry. they required around 2 million to enter the agreement.
All other work is fully funded as per RNS November 2, 2021 by last issue will take 1000bopd and SLK will with zenith and money must be in bank as crude oil cannot store more than 6 month otherwise it will loose viscosity and quality of crude too.
Redigert 17.11.2021 kl 14:44 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
17.11.2021 kl 14:54 11243

The Company intends to use the proceeds of the Subscription as follows:

• £1,300,000 – funding of Zenith’s share of work programme costs in respect of
the Ezzaouia concession onshore Tunisia. This will include the drilling of two
sidetracks in non-producing wells with the objective of achieving a gross
production of 1,000 bopd from the Ezzaouia concession.

• £600,000 – expected cost of drilling a new well in the Robbana concession,
also onshore Tunisia, where Zenith holds a 100% working interest. Long-lead
items required for drilling of two wells already acquired and on location.

• £300,000 – transportation expenses for Zenith’s 1,200hp drilling rig to
Africa.

• £250,000 – Tilapia II licence, (located onshore Republic of the Congo),
development costs, including finalisation of licence award process and
employment of operational personnel to optimise the planned beginning of
drilling operations in well TLP-103C.

• £150,000 – expenses associated with the preparation and publication of a UK
Prospectus. See below for more details.

• £400,000 – general working capital.
Viking_I
17.11.2021 kl 15:48 11199

here $4.5 million and $6million (excluding SLK) is not included. 20% to zenith will also give zenith kr1 valuation (considering too conservatively $3 as range is $3 to $18 and 273 MMBL) if zenith gets 49% then it will be lottery.
Redigert 17.11.2021 kl 15:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
Gullit
17.11.2021 kl 22:21 10946

Men vi må få noen i havn snart. Skulle ikke AC til Kongo ??
Herman*
17.11.2021 kl 22:39 10895

How can you calculate a future market cap/fair value when you do not know the terms of such an agreement in Nigetia? I am not saying anything about this license because I do not know enough to have an opinion. From what I understand, Zenith has the exclusive right to do due dilligence on the asset, and that by the end of the month, they have to inform their counterpart if they wish to proceed to negotiations. Negotiations and financing options go hand in hand, and I guess that 1-4 months later the matter should come to a conclusion. I also read somewhere that Tilapia is expected before Christmas. I think it can come more or less any time, but I cant find a place in the transcript where AC says it will come this year. What he did say is that he hopes there will be concrete deals to be made before the next investor call next year. I think the deals that have the biggest chance to be closed in December are found in Tunisia. I dont see why these deals need to drag out for months.
Hektor
17.11.2021 kl 22:55 10849

Dette ble sagt for 1 uke siden:
I am travelling to Congo in the next 10-15 days and I will be able to report factual developments when we are face to face with the hydocarbons ministry. I am confident that there will be news before the next investor call but it is not our lack of pushing or being out of favour with the ministry.
Hektor
17.11.2021 kl 23:13 10801

... Holder en lav profil, selvfølgelig kan melding komme når som helst.
Redigert 17.11.2021 kl 23:14 Du må logge inn for å svare
Viking_I
18.11.2021 kl 04:43 10664

I know you are out of zenith from last few months. If you don't know how last time valuation done for zenith or other oil companies please go through it. Check last IC transcript available here on this forum. We will see what will come on 1st Dec max or may be in next week about % and finances in RNS about Nigeria deal. Many things will get clear in 30st Nov Half year report.
Viking_I
18.11.2021 kl 09:11 10471

Alert ..............0.1140 -200k (hidden volume of 1.8 million )
C-Eiken
18.11.2021 kl 09:27 10420

Snart 25% fald siden 25 oct. :(
Gullit
18.11.2021 kl 11:48 10288

Ikke vits å se på kursen her før Nyheter, om du ikke skal kjøpe mer da….
Viking_I
18.11.2021 kl 11:54 10290

it is just few days more course will bounce back, will never reach 10 øre again.
Aldara
18.11.2021 kl 11:58 10272

I believe that Viking when I see it! Not a second before!
Herman*
18.11.2021 kl 12:05 10252

I know a thing or two about valuations and I have read the transcript, but I also know that you keep spamming with non stop bs, which is actually undermining the Zenith investment case. I may not be a shareholder, but I am not negative to Zenith as the downside risk is limited.
Furuen
18.11.2021 kl 15:16 10102

How can the volume be hidden, if you can see it?
Herbius
18.11.2021 kl 15:44 10051

Herman:

Han finder i det mindste konstruktive ting ang aktien, i forhold til dig 👍👍

Tror nok folk her sagtens selv kan vurdere hvad som er godt og skidt 👍
Barneskirenn
18.11.2021 kl 16:23 10061

Herbius, nå får du gi deg. Jeg mener Herman* er, og har vært, ganske konstruktiv i sine innlegg. Men i dine øyne, så er det KUN positive hause-innlegg som har verdi.
Er så drit lei å lese meningsløse hauseinnlegg (dog også baiseinnlegg) dag inn og dag ut. Selv om man står uten eller med aksjer, bør man kunne komme med konstruktive "negative" kommentarer uten at du Herbius, og resten av hause-kompaniet hyler.

Ps. Herbius; vi trenger flere emojier på innleggene. Flere raktett-, pengesekk-, og gråtele-emojier. Bare å smøre på.
Herbius
18.11.2021 kl 16:31 10037

Muligt du synes det, men i forhold til dig og Herman kommer han da med konstruktive ting ang aktien han har aktier i.

Har du fundet noget som helst ang aktien ???
Du stiller spørgsmål som en hver mand der er i aktien ved.
Herman*
18.11.2021 kl 16:35 10015

Som sagt er jeg ikke negativ til Zena. Tror ikke den går under 9-10 øre om det ikke skjer noe veldig negativt. Oppsiden er selvsagt betydelig, selv om jeg synes det er mest fornuftig å snakke om 20-30 øre før en snakker om kroner. Har ikke sagt noe negativt om Nigeria eller Tilapia. Alle skjønner at det er to kursdrivende avtaler som antagelig landes i løpet av vinteren. Det som provoserer meg grenseløst er alt snakk om at aksjen går til himmels innen x dato, og så flytter en bare datoene noen uker i slengen. Til slutt blir det så mye ulv ulv, at en ødelegger for alle de seriøse aksjonærene.
Barneskirenn
18.11.2021 kl 16:40 10004

Jeg har ikke kommentert om Viking, hvis det er han du hinter til. Syntes det er bra at noen har tid og kompetanse til å grave frem all informajsonen de kommer med (Aqualight, Viking, MarketGunsling m.fl.). Noe jeg ikke har mulighet til.
Tetro
18.11.2021 kl 17:16 9914

Veldig glad for at Herman følger med. Innleggene hans er veldig informative og nyanserte. I positiv og negativ retning. Viktig at aksjonærene har mulighet til å se hele bildet. Ikke alle har mulighet til å grave og lete etter nyheter som andre har. Vi har et forum for å få alle vinklinger på et selskap. Vikings inlegg har svært mye å god informasjon men bommer jo totalt på alle datoer. Da trenger ikke du komme med sure oppgulp hver gang noen stiller spørsmål som du føler er negative.
P.S har vært med mye lengre enn du tror.
Herbius
18.11.2021 kl 18:14 9828

Det eneste jeg pointere er at, Herman angriber Viking, som har aktier her, Og Herman ikke.

Tror du Herman havde smidt det indlæg hvis aktien var steget 50 -100 % på dagen..

Hvis det havde været løgn det Viking skrev, havde det været noget andet. 🙈🙈
Men så må Herman eller i andre jo komme med noget Fakta det beviser Viking har fejl ??????
Jeg venter spændt 😃😃

Viking har været super optimist, og det er der vel ikke noget galt i, Men han har lært ar Ting tager Tid, det skal i andre nok også lærer på et tidspunkt 👍😃
Herman*
18.11.2021 kl 18:43 9773

Bevise? Viking skriver daglige eventyr om at aksjen shortes, at noen bevisst manipuler den ned, at alt ordner seg innen x dato. Les historikken. Dette gavner ikke dere som er aksjonærer, folk som stikker innom tråden må jo tro at enkelte har fått solstikk. Det går sakte med Zenith, men går i det minste fremover. Spesielt positivt er at de har hatt operasjonell suksess i Tunisia. Selv om jeg ikke har aksjer, gidder jeg ikke å ødelegge min troverdighet bare for å kunne rakke ned på et selskap. Jeg er lettere kritisk til alle selskaper, uavhengig av posisjon. Om jeg kjøper meg inn i Zena noen gang vil tonen være den samme. Ellers så savner jeg også Aqualight. Han er positiv uten å ty til fantasifull haussing.
Redigert 18.11.2021 kl 19:05 Du må logge inn for å svare
Herbius
18.11.2021 kl 19:47 9689

Det tror jeg nu heller ikke 🙈🙈

Men at folk skak købe aktier efter hvad der bliver skrevet her på dette site, har jeg nu lidt tro på 😴😴
Eller det håber jeg da så sandelig ikke 🥲

Herman du har misset det pointen ved at handle aktie, de er bygget på drømme og derfor er det spændende at følge 😃
Slettet bruker
18.11.2021 kl 22:57 9493

Haleluja - kurt nilsen

Fra spøk til alvor, absolutt ingen som vet når avtaler blir signert. Ikke engang AC. Så dette kan ta veeeeldig lang tid, middels lang tid, eller kort tid 😂

Blir dog ikke sjokkert om det tar en 10 år+ før tilapia kommer. Opererer jo med sneglefart i disse landene, er en grunn de er 1000 år bak andre land.
Viking_I
19.11.2021 kl 09:01 9252

I am not writing in air, all dates based on RNS published by company and share trading data available on trading platform. my next date is 30th Nov half year report and 1st Dec Nigeria announcement. I am not missing dates company is missing date as i got info Tilapia will be announce before summer end but company missed the time frame. SLK long stop dates given by company and its depends on CCH meeting in Tunisia now we know the link where we can find out minutes of meeting in Arabic.
Regarding short - 30million sold by someone in 5million block in hidden volume and trading number and pattern confirms it.
Hidden Volume - you can see it on e24 before 9 am or 16.20 to 16.24 if it is first order in line also from 9am to 16.20pm you can detect it in trading pattern.
also I am confirming Zenith will enter agreement into Nigeria as per all hints from IC only thing is % of share. 20% will value zenith kr1 with 1.8 billion shares.
Redigert 19.11.2021 kl 09:10 Du må logge inn for å svare
Herman*
19.11.2021 kl 09:07 9226

How do you know there will be an announcement on Dec 1? What will be the content of this RNS?
Viking_I
19.11.2021 kl 09:14 9201

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/541228
you are free to interpret as your wish.
i will focus on following
"This opportunity is in line with our strategy of identifying assets, which are ‘drill-ready’ and with significant near-term production potential, that will position the Company to achieve its goal of becoming an oil and gas company with a well-balanced portfolio producing more than 10,000 bopd.”

Slettet bruker
19.11.2021 kl 09:21 9188

Noen som har topp 20/ topp 100 liste?
Slettet bruker
19.11.2021 kl 09:23 9173

Hadde jeg hatt ledig cash hadde jeg tatt de 4,5 millioner på 11,17 øre nå.
Slettet bruker
19.11.2021 kl 09:47 9097

Antall eier av Zenith aksjer hos Nordet har gått ned fra 1363 til 1 312
Zenith har heller ikke besvart forespørsel på mail om innsyn i aksjeeier boken
Herman*
19.11.2021 kl 10:04 9030

I think you are missing my point. There may or may not be an RNS on December 1, but you are categorical about the date even if you are usually wrong about your predictions. You also wont answer my question with regards to what may be the content of such an RNS. Personally, I think there may be an RNS some time in early December, saying that Zenith has completed due dilligence and would like to proceed with negotiations. This would be a good start, with a deal potentially finalized sometime next year.