Congo, Tilapia & MKB Fields.

Fakevenues
ZENA 06.02.2022 kl 13:00 12019

AGEOS
Today 11:52

Those who are aware of ZEN's potential interests in the Congo [Brazzaville] will know that the Tilapia Field is the first of several possible acquisitions under negotiation. An RNS on 07.07.2020 was the first to mention a second, though unnamed, target, and in a Feb 2021 Financial Fox interview AC referred to “discussions regarding second and possible third and fourth assets.”

In considering possible targets I detailed, in posts on 10.07.2020 & 12.02.2021, the merits of the MKB Fields [Mengo, Kundji, Bindi & Tchiniambi Fields] as the most likely candidates, with that of the Kundji Field conforming most closely with the characteristics of the target acquisition as described in the 07.07.2020 RNS. By that time [ie 2020] the MKB Fields were fully under the control of SONAREP, the Research and Production subsidiary of SNPC [National Oil Company] having progressively reverted to the state during the previous two decades due to falling production.

It now appears, from articles published on www.africaintelligence.com on 14.& 31. 01.2022 that operational control, in part or whole, of the “MKB Concession” or “MKB Block” may have been acquired by an entity described as an American company called “Trident OGX” I quote from “Africa Intelligence” in a qualified manner since its previous reportage on Congo matters has at best been inaccurate and at worst the object of litigation. Without going into detail on the merits or otherwise of this particular claim, it is sufficient to state that although there is no official corroboration of which I am aware; and the transfer of operational control from SONAREP does not appear to have been ratified by the Council of Ministers, there is circumstantial evidence to confirm involvement of a company named “Trident OGX International Pte Ltd” based in Singapore, in a study of the Mengo Reservoir mineralogy [see link below]

www.tridentogx.com [click on “experience”, then on “Congo Public Data”

This company is part of the Trident OGX Group, and appears to specialise in O & G Upstream Project Management. The document entitled “Reservoir Observations Related to Clay Content” Aug 2021 was probably prepared for a client/prospective JV evaluating the Mengo Reservoir production potential within the MKB group of Fields. Trident OGX is not itself directly involved in O & G Field Operations so the 'Africa Intelligence' claim that it has acquired operational control from SNPC seems unlikely; more so that a client of Trident OGX has, or is negotiating for, part or whole of the MKB interests.
Since the ZEN 07.07.2020 RNS announced a “Joint Venture Agreement for acquisition of a second oil production asset” with a “local oil and gas company” , this latest news regarding the MKB Fields does raise the, admittedly highly speculative possibility, of ZEN involvement. If it proves otherwise, and the MKB Concession is acquired by a rival, it will at least suggest that Bruno Itoua, the Minister of Hydrocarbons, is carrying out his threat to strip Maixent Ominga, the CEO of SNPC, of his control of the MKB Fields, and simultaneously and consequently likewise for Tilapia. AC's recent reference to “the potential near-term award of the Tilapia II licence” [RNS 26.01.2022] might then assume a more significant meaning.
AGEOS

FV: I suspect you hit something there, one way or another.....AGEOS

Yes Fakevenues, and we can only hope the impact is a positive one.

With Congo [Brazzaville] ranked 162 out of 180 on the Transparency org World Corruption Index it is not impossible that the individual, self-styled as the “Director General of Trident OGX Energy Afrique” on a well known website for four months during 2021, might end up as a proxy in control of MKB. Orion Oil paid $150m for a 20% interest in MKB in 2013 on the basis of 1.3 billion barrels of oil reserves so the political elite will have their eyes on this one.

If AC can bring Tilapia intact into the ZEN fold it will have been a considerable accomplishment. To add even one of the MKB Fields at a similar cost would be masterly.

Redigert 07.02.2022 kl 23:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
08.02.2022 kl 23:16 4893

Det er forskjell på 50% og 70% skatt ..
Vi får håpe Zenith ligger nærmere 50% enn 70%


Pessimist1
08.02.2022 kl 23:30 4864

Her har nok noen kommet med feil informasjon til meg, i følge PWC, er det 35%.

https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/tunisia/corporate/taxes-on-corporate-income

Om royalte ligger i størrelseorden 5-10prosent kan vi regne med enn 45% effektiv skatterate.

365 * 540 * 70 *8.85 *0.45 = 55 mill netto til Zenith.

Dagens tall gir dette enn PE på 172 / 55 = 3.12, langt under det PE-tallet på 10 som ble presentert på en annen post her.

Legger man til Italia er man vel fort oppe i 172/80 = 2.15

Alt i alt ekstremt billig.
Hektor
08.02.2022 kl 23:38 4841

Når det gjelder skatt står det mye om R faktor osv hva enn det vil si 😀 ref world bank dokument. Mindre fat = mindre skatt?
Redigert 08.02.2022 kl 23:43 Du må logge inn for å svare
Pessimist1
09.02.2022 kl 01:33 4775

Dokumentet du viser til er forslag til endringer i skattesystemet i Tunisia, ikke de faktiske skattereglene.
Allroad18
09.02.2022 kl 09:13 4584

Noen som skal putte penger i solide Vår Energi? Bør man kaste kortene i Z og komme seg videre? Utbytteaksje og stigende kurs fra dag 1- tipper mange vil delta på emisjonen. Just saying...
Gullit
09.02.2022 kl 10:06 4477

Ingen planer om det, hver gang eg kaster kortene så kommer melding eg har ventet på, denne gangen skal eg stå løpet her. Hadde man ikke hatt troen på Zenith så hadde man vel gått videre uavhengi av Vår Energi… Synes utviklingen i Tunisia i 2021 gir en fin grunnmur så landing av Tilapia, Nigeria eller videre utvikling i Tunisia vil sette fart på kursen. Men lykke til i Vår energi, kan hende vi ses der også en dag..
TheLondonOiler
09.02.2022 kl 10:26 4433

Yes it has happened many times where investors have given up and sell, then week later the news they were waiting for comes and they are locked out on the rise. Fact is we are still considerably cheap, and if Tilapia news comes this time there will be no chance to buy back in.
Allroad18
09.02.2022 kl 10:41 4393

Jeg ska heller ikke kaste kortene, selv om man burde gjort det for over ett år siden, men vi får satse på at gjenværende aksjonærer tenker litt lenger fremover enn neste uke.
Tigerberget
09.02.2022 kl 11:22 4337

Kanskje kjøpe meg inn igjen snart…?
Gullit
09.02.2022 kl 11:25 4330

Slettes ikke dumt.. kan ikke være mye nedside igjen no.. Heldig med innfang idag..
Braincool
09.02.2022 kl 12:51 4212

Hva er galt? Zenit blir solgt nedover og nedover for hver dag som går. Bare den siste mnd er Zenit ned 15 %, 6 mnd ned 28 %. Det er jo ikke alt som henger på greip her selv om det er markedet som bestemmer. Stigende oljepris, høye el.priser. De tjener godt med penger så hva er det som skjer? Hvor langt ned skal vi før det snur?
Viking_I
09.02.2022 kl 13:06 4181

We will continue go down until company intervene with new concrete message like Tilapia (I don't expect it will come until June), SLK, or ROB-1 in production or share buyback program like 2 million share for each day next 3 month.
Redigert 09.02.2022 kl 13:09 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
09.02.2022 kl 13:18 4143

AC har kjøpt i Zenith ....
Resten av ledelsen venter kansje på ytterligere nedgang i kursen før de kjøper ?
Gullit
09.02.2022 kl 13:22 4129

Vi blir nok liggende mellom 9 og 10 øre frem til nyheter ja. Trenger å få opp produksjonen eller landet tidligere meldte avtaler. Når AC fyller opp beholdning sin er det ikke uten grunn. Fremtiden er god den, men investorer kan bli utålmodig( forståelig det)
traktoren
09.02.2022 kl 13:54 4057

Pr idag finnes det neste ikke handel i aksjen...En robot er satt på for å holde den i sjakk, og det kjøpes eller selges dermed kun opp eller ned med 3-4000 kr pr handel, altså ingenting...Nå vil aksjonærene ha noe håndfast å forholde seg til , og ikke alle disse "kanskje" mulighetene...Selvsagt ikke dumt at AC velger å putte 4 mill inn, men det fortalte også at det ikke umiddelbart kom en avklaring..Nå nermer det seg 14 dager etter dette kjøpet, og vi er dermed på ny i en situasjon at det kan komme en avklarende melding når som helst..Uansett må vi huske på en ting...Produserer selskapet idag? JA, Tjener selskapet penger på produksjonen idag? JA. Har selskapet penger på bok? Ja, de bør de ha etter siste emi og inntekter fra produksjon.. I UK ligger aksjen på 10,7 øre men null i omsetning...den som lever får se, men at Zenith har potensiale er ubestridt..
BMU
09.02.2022 kl 15:03 3972

Helt Enig med deg, de har Jeg ikke blit noe klok av dette som foregår med kurset?. De skall ikke vare son at de må basere seg kurset om,hvis,når de kommer noe mange har ventet på (Tilapia). De skull ha vært en stabil kurs,ikke som faller så mange % når produksjon / inntekter har vært stabil, faktisk de er mer insekter i dag en for et år siden hvor kurset var på 0.12 - 0,13 kr. Vi kan ikke anklage markedet, store forhåpninger eller hva de kan vare.De er 2 midr aksjer i den prisen som er i dag,selv om en gang aksjen stiger til 0.50 kr. de vil bli en veldig kort vei tilbake til utgangspunktet hvor var vi for i slutten av (desember /2019 ).
TheLondonOiler
09.02.2022 kl 17:45 3824

Viking I don’t believe that is the case. I think we have firmly hit bottom and news is sooner than we think. We are at the mercy of the Congolese government and I would expect a month or two after ACs latest top up. But that’s my opinion let’s wait and see what unfolds.
Slettet bruker
09.02.2022 kl 18:50 3746

The SNP court case due in February 2022 should be an interesting gap filler while we wait for the result of the ADM/Noble Hill court case on the 1st March and on the same day the sale of our 114,000 barrels of oil. It's not long then for the market to catch wind of the financial progress about to show in the forthcoming end of year results up to 31st March.

I'm expecting a decent payoff in excess of $5.3m from SNP so well worth the wait. The ADM/Noble Hill conflict should also present a number of opportunities to us whatever the outcome in that we seem to be the only party involved with any money to spend, so we could end up dealing with any one or both of them.

The 1st March could also bring a slightly smaller bonus in that since the stated RNS the 114,000 barrels may have increased and the price of oil may increase with it, so plenty of good stuff to come.
MarketGunsling
10.02.2022 kl 14:49 3521

Yes, the SNP court case should be very interesting - I didn't realise that it was so soon, have you got the link to wherever shows the court date?.

Regardless of when the court date is, we do know that Andrea has always been very bullish about the chances of success in the court case. In the April conference call from last year he said:

"We are very happy with our lawyers and we have been very active in providing documentation about the wrongdoing of SNP and we are very confident that the Paris courts will decide in our favour possibly even higher than the $5.3 million that we have asked for. The SNP have carried out two other terrible drills in Congo We expect this ruling in 12 months."

Obviously, you never know what is going to happen when a case goes to court but the French courts are not corrupt like some jurisdictions and so we can know that we will get an honest decision - so the fact that Andrea is so bullish about our chances looks like a really good sign.
Slettet bruker
10.02.2022 kl 15:03 3489

Vi kommer stadig nærmere inngangsnivået jeg hadde på 0.04.

Fy faen for en taper aksje 😂

Nei gutter, be smart.
traktoren
10.02.2022 kl 15:15 3466

ose mest spennende aksje...hahaha
Sia
10.02.2022 kl 15:22 3448

Kursen idag har ikke noe med selskapet og gjøre. Emi på 35 000 000 NOK pålydende 0,13 gjorde ikke disse "gutta" for morro skyld. Når det kommer nyheter så trekkes alle salgspostene til "robotene" du refererer til å kursen går i taket. Da blir det trangt gjennom døra som alltid. Hadde vært fint om man tenker litt mer på potensialet enn dagskursen.
Viking_I
10.02.2022 kl 15:54 3393

look like someone unable to break 0.09 after all his might
Redigert 10.02.2022 kl 16:07 Du må logge inn for å svare
Gullit
10.02.2022 kl 15:55 3388

Så sant, man går seg litt blind her om dagen. Burde bare parkert bussen frem til de viktige tingene ble avgjort…
jantt
10.02.2022 kl 16:17 3347

indtil videre hører Zena til en af mine dårligste investeringer :(
eneste der holder mit humør lidt oppe er at ceo køber flere aktier. Det burde give en indikation om at det bliver bedre
MarketGunsling
14.02.2022 kl 14:45 2891

The key next step for Zenith is clearly going to be Tilapia. We have been waiting for this for more than two years and it clearly has the potential to be a company-maker in terms of share-price impact. We can see why too, considering that Andrea has said that Tilapia once it is worked over could flow at anywhere between 1,000-5,000 bopd. AAOG once announced that the cost of production out there was only $5 per barrel and so even being conservative and doubling this to $10 there is an absolute fortune to be made out there. With oil prices currently at $95 per barrel then we are looking at Zenith’s 49% share of Tilapia to deliver a net profit each year of:


1,000 bopd = $15 million
2,000 bopd = $30 million
3,000 bopd = $45 million
5,000 bopd = $76 million


TLP-103C is a nearly completed well that was drilled to 80% of the depth and, according to Andrea’s interview with Financial Fox in February last year there only remains a few hundred meters to drill as a sidetrack/completion before it can be taken into production.


So the moment that we get granted the Tilapia license not only do Zenith have the potential to generate huge amounts of revenue by selling oil but they have the potential to do this quite quickly as there is not much of the drill left to do.


How likely are we to get The Tilapia License and when would we get it?


1. We know that things move very slowly in Africa.
2. We know that back in the November investor call Andrea hinted that he expected that we would get news on Tilapia before the end of 2021 so we are already behind schedule.
3. From all of the information that has come out on twitter last week it looks like Andrea is due to meet with the Congolese very soon – even today if some of the information that has been uncovered is to be believed.
4. We know that Andrea has repeatedly said that he is absolutely confident that we will be granted the Tilapia2 licence.
5. We know that Andrea would not be going to the Congo if it were not likely that we could be signing the next stage of the deal on the Tilapia license.


So in short, we must be expecting news on the Tilapia 2 license soon as this news is very overdue. However, if the tweets that were put out from the Congolese side last week are accurate and Andrea is indeed on his way to, or even already in, the Congo then it would appear that we might be very close to getting the news we have all been waiting for in the very near future.


If we can get the license granted and then get the well producing at a point in time when oil prices are at 10 year highs, then the rewards to Zenith for our efforts, and the impact to our investments as shareholders could be astronomical.
Aqualight
14.02.2022 kl 15:21 2809

@MG - Thanks

But your numbers are a little off - it is 56% not 49% - to Zenith -

At 95$ -5$ = 90$ boe

1,000 bopd = $15 million - 17 million (110,7 mill nok kr.)
2,000 bopd = $30 million - 34 million
3,000 bopd = $45 million - 51 million
5,000 bopd = $76 million - 85 million (554 mill nok kr.)

Aqualight 🇩🇰🇳🇴🇬🇧
MarketGunsling
15.02.2022 kl 12:33 2557

Aqualight, you are absolutely right, it was 56% with the previous Tilapia license but since this is an entirely new 25 year license I thought it prudent to mark down the value a little. It is for the same reason that I put in the costs as $10 per barrel as opposed to the $5 per barrel that AAOG originally quoted.

Your figures are correct at 56% and $5 per barrel cost but I have put a little flexibility in mine by making it 49% and $10 per barrel cost and it still comes out at a very large amount of money.

I'd be happier if we came in at your figures but I would still be delighted if we came in at mine.
Slettet bruker
15.02.2022 kl 12:45 2530

Lenge siden det har vært så stille. 16 dager siden innsidekjøp. Må gå fint å melde news nå.
Viking_I
15.02.2022 kl 12:53 2507

In new Tilapia II it will increase to 60% or more to in terms of reduce $5.6 million payment. (AAOG planned similar way in 2019 to increase interest more than 56% for Tilapia II before drilling)
Ref- yearly report page 15 Annual Report 2021
(iv) its wholly owned subsidiary, Zenith Congo SA ("Zenith Congo") which has received (subject to final approval and negotiation of a production sharing agreement) a 25-year license for the Tilapia oilfield in the Republic of the Congo, in which it holds a 60% interest;
Bond holders document - Prospectus dated 4 March 2021 - Page VII
Congo License II - a 60 per cent interest in the Tilapia II oilfield in the Republic of the Congo, which has not yet been awarded to the Group.
I also saw same figure in second and third IC document published around last year.
Redigert 15.02.2022 kl 13:00 Du må logge inn for å svare
TheLondonOiler
15.02.2022 kl 13:21 2452

That’s going to be big money for zenith. Surely the market cap would be multiples of where it is now. I have added significantly to my holding in zenith now my biggest share holding. Good times ahead.
MarketGunsling
15.02.2022 kl 16:04 2320

Viking - I have looked at page 15 of the annual report as you suggested and I stand corrected and am very happy to see that we will own 60% of the Tilapia 2 license. Thanks to both you and Acqualight for spotting my error.

So now, my revenue figures (still putting opex as $10 per barrel to be conservative) come out at:

1,000 bopd = $19 million
2,000 bopd = $37 million
3,000 bopd = $56 million
5,000 bopd = $93 million

Even 1,000 bopd is massive for Zenith and our share price but once we get above that it is stratospheric stuff. Now we just need to hope that AC can get the deal over the line in the near future.
Redigert 15.02.2022 kl 16:05 Du må logge inn for å svare
Gullhaugen
09.05.2022 kl 11:20 1451

H.E Didier Budimbu Ntubuanga, Minister of Hydrocarbons of the Democratic Republic of Congo- Det beynner virkelig å komme klare tegn på at det løsner nå.

Det ser ut som om han endelig har forstått sitt egent beste. Da kan det se ut som det virkelig skjer noe : https://african.business/2022/05/apo-newsfeed/democratic-republic-of-congo-drc-minister-of-hydrocarbons-to-make-a-strong-case-for-democratic-republic-of-congo-energy-investment-at-african-energy-week-2022/

https://aecweek.com/drc-minister-of-hydrocarbons-to-make-a-strong-case-for-drc-energy-investment-at-aew-2022/
Redigert 09.05.2022 kl 11:24 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
09.05.2022 kl 11:37 1411

Lite å gå på i nedslaget. Kommer sikker en melding uten substans så kursen løftes før videre nedsalg. Tipper det blir bekreftelse av oppgjør for oljesalg.