Zenith Energy - Oljen priset til usd 1 pr fat?

Frodon
ZENA 29.04.2022 kl 12:56 176726

Er dette blant de billigste olje selskapene pr dags dato? Er oljen de eier priset til ca usd 1 pr fat? I tillegg til olje produksjon, selger også selskapet gass og strøm. Bare strøm produksjonen som selskapet har i Italia, tjener selskapet nok penger til å forsvare hele børs verdien på kr 180 millioner

"Electricity prices during the month of March 2022 averaged approximately EUR 295 per MWh, resulting in net revenues of approximately EUR 300,000 per month. Zenith’s current net production costs remain fixed at approximately EUR 35,000 per month"

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/558660

"Oil production:

Zenith has reported production from its Tunisian assets in the first half of 2021/22 at 517 b/d. Shipments were somewhat lower at 371 b/d. Significantly, production in Tunisia was running at 650 b/d net in late September including conditional SLK output. Zenith suggested that 1,000 b/d is possible by the second quarter of 2022 assuming successful workover and drilling activity

Tunisia work programme:

Zenith has interests in four producing licences in Tunisia. At Robbana in the south of the country the workover of the ROB-1 well was successfully
completed in early Q4 2021. Production was boosted from approximately 20 b/d to 100 b/d. Near-term, the work programme in Tunisia involves drilling a vertical well at Robbana and two side-tracks in non-producing wells at the Ezzaouia also in the south of the country. The objective is 1,000 b/d for the latter while for the former we believe 500 b/d might be possible. The cost of US$2.5m is underpinned by the recent US$4m equity raise

Valuation and financing

Reflecting the sometimes difficult operating and business environment, valuations for undeveloped resources in Nigeria are modest. We believe valuation might well be less than US$1/barrel. If we assume US$0.5/barrel and 233mm barrels of resources for the two discoveries the valuation would be US$117m. A 42% interest would therefore be US$49m which implies significant headroom vis-à-vis the US$20m as per the OML 141 option agreement.

Zenith has indicated that plans have already been finalized for drilling the Barracuda 5 well (B-5). Apparently, all the necessary civil engineering work has been undertaken for the well including dredging and site clearance. The well location is between two previously drilled wells which have encountered ‘significant hydrocarbons’. The indications are that drilling will commence in January 2022. In a success case Zenith has indicated that production is expected to start immediately using a barge-mounted early production facility. Production could commence during the second quarter of 2022 at a rate of approximately 4,000 b/d, according to Zenith. Further development is expected with the locations for Barracuda wells 6, 7 and 8 already identified. If Zenith chooses to exercise
the option agreement, there will, therefore, be an ongoing corporate and development financing requirement"

Informasjon hentet fra linkene under

Prospektet 4.3.2022

https://wp-zenith-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/03/315-033-Prospectus-2022-final-approved.pdf

Analyse fra Allenby Capital 14.12.2021:

https://www.allenbycapital.com/our-research/?msclkid=f7a374b5c7a911ecaa511cb87e0b4104&fwp_research_client=2618

Børs meldinger fra selskapet:

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/search?category=&issuer=12675&fromDate=&toDate=&market=&messageTitle=
Tricky
24.05.2022 kl 15:41 3414

Agree. Might take day or weeks or even a couple of months. Otherwise why all the work getting the funding ready.
TheLondonOiler
24.05.2022 kl 14:41 3496

nice summary MG - all in all we have a lot to look forward to just amount of when not if.
MarketGunsling
24.05.2022 kl 11:40 3729

Zenith has never been in as good a position as the company is now if you ask me. We are generating very real cash revenue out of our Tunisian assets and we have significant expansion plans in Tunisia (of which the remedial work at Rob-1 is already in process) which should enable us to double production from the current levels by the end of summer. This could leave Tunisia developing in excess of $20 million per annum in profit. Our Italian assets also continue to generate Euros 2-3 million per annum and also have the potential to expand with some investment.

So we are generating massive profit from both the Tunisian and the Italian operations. However, the big news that we are all waiting for is of course (still) Tilapia. This is the news that will drive the shareprice forwards into multiples of it’s current values and is also the most mysterious bit about the company’s current operations. As soon as this arrives the game changes for Zenith completely. I was always delighted at the (relatively small) revenue generation that we were originally looking at from Tunisia because this would have allowed us to take out debt to drill Tilapia instead of having to issue equity as we have done in the past. However, with oil prices as their current unparalleled levels then it seems that by the end of June we will already have enough cash in the back to drill two Tilapia wells without having to borrow any money at all – though I totally accept that some of this money has to go to cover general company opex. Of course, first we actually have to be granted the Tilapia license and there brings me to my only issue with Zenith at our current status – we always seems to just be waiting for governments to make their decisions and until they do then the real value of the company will never be shown in the share price.

My assessment of what we are waiting on for Zenith is as follow.

In Tunisia:
1) We should be expecting the receipt of the $6.4 million any day now and it may already have been paid.
2) We are expecting to despatch another $5.5 million worth of oil next month and will, presumably, receive payment for that in July.
3) The remedial work on Rob-1 should also be finished any day (to be honest I am surprised that it has not already been completed) and this should allow us to generate an additional 100-120 bopd (which should generate a net revenue of $3.2 – 3.8 million per annum) at an oil price of $113 and an opex cost of $25.
4) We still have the fully funded work on Ezzaouia and Rob-3 to carry out towards the end of June.

In Italy
1. We continue to generate extremely high electricity revenues from our Italian assets which are generating a net revenue of between Euros 2-3 million per annum.
2. Looking at the website we also have the potential to significantly increase the revenues generated from our Italian assets. I have never paid too much notice to these in the past but it is interesting to note that on the website they mention that “Zenith’s Italian energy production interests hold significant potential for development and increased energy production. The development programme is primarily concentrated on the Torrente Cigno concession, where the Company is finalising a plan to drill a development well, to be named MV-2, to explore the updip structure of the Miocenic and Cretaceous carbonates formations”.
3. I wonder if the latest financing of E1.3 million that was announced alongside the last electricity revenue numbers may be to carry out this work.

In Congo
1. We are still waiting for confirmation that we have received the new Tilapia license and while AC says all of the signs here are good, we have still been waiting for over a year since we were announced as the preferred bidder.
2. Indications that things are likely to end up good here can be taken from the fact that Andrea has mentioned that when the license is approved then we are likely to get more than one Congolese asset and so presumably he has been in ongoing (and positive) negotiations about this for some time.
3. I presume that with the receipt of $12 million in revenue from Tunisia during May and June we will be in a position to immediately commence fully funded work on one or more of these assets as soon as we get the license.

But in short, and as ever, we are really just stuck waiting for news at the moment. I assume that we should hear news about ROB-1 next though, like everybody else, what I really want too hear about is Tilapia.

We must be due a new conference call any time now and it would be good to hear directly from Andrea what is going on. All the pieces are in place for a massive expansion in share price but the big question is when will this happen. As soon as we get Tilapia then this is a market-wide re-rate for the company as we will have cash income and exploration potential which is the holy grail of all small-cap companies.
Viking_I
24.05.2022 kl 11:06 3801

Detail calculation refer page 6, Zenith valuation report from 14th Dec Exhibit 3: Zenith valuation estimate analysis
https://wp-allenby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/12/20211214-Zenith-Energy-ZEN.L-Allenby-Capital-Interims.pdf?c2642=on
2p Reserve Djeno+ Mengo +R1/R2 - 2P reserve 60% to zenith gives 16.49 MMBLL ( report included only 56% of Djeno formation got 2P reserve for other formation (currently producing ) from AAOG report )

Metric EV/2P - 11 (oil price $70 -3.5 (Capex + tax royalty), oil price $70 to 100 - 7 and above hundred 50% (Tax and royalty ) $110 - ($113-$110)/2 = $6.5.
3.5 +3.5 +6.5 = 13.5 (i have taken 11 )
Loan - $2.5 million for remaining drilling.
Redigert 24.05.2022 kl 11:12 Du må logge inn for å svare
TheLondonOiler
24.05.2022 kl 09:41 3905

Price next year will be multiples where it is now according to how much oil we produce and sell from Tunisia and electricity sales from Italy alone. Now if we get Tilapia signed and sealed then you can add another multiples on top of that. Perfect buying opportunity right now.
Galv
23.05.2022 kl 20:46 4213

Hi Viking

I know your number from before. Still when we drill we can unlock more p2 reserv. Please make vikings valuation calculation for 0.86 nok public to all. Anyway hope Tilapia 2 in place before 1.7 and drill startet before 1.10 in 2022.
Slettet bruker
23.05.2022 kl 19:54 4314

Agre.

Sell.
Slettet bruker
23.05.2022 kl 19:01 4405

The price will be a joke next year aswell, according to this forum.
Viking_I
23.05.2022 kl 15:27 4611

Tilapia 2 Valuation - Djeno+ Mengo +R1/R2 - 2P reserve 60% to zenith gives 16.49 MMBLL - loan $2.5 million to drill - current oil price $113 - Valuation kr 0.86
Redigert 23.05.2022 kl 15:28 Du må logge inn for å svare
Barneskirenn
23.05.2022 kl 15:17 4601

The price right now is a joke.. 20øre with the tilapia license is still very low. But in traditional Zenith-pricing, we should maybe expect around 20øre!...
Viking_I
23.05.2022 kl 15:07 4627

hidden volume to buy at 0.0990 5T, it will create pressure at seller side.
Redigert 23.05.2022 kl 15:08 Du må logge inn for å svare
TheLondonOiler
23.05.2022 kl 15:06 4625

I think zenith are just finalising the final loose ends before announcement - one thing is for certain when announced there will be a huge re-rating in the share price. I expect minimum double from where we are now.
Barneskirenn
23.05.2022 kl 14:30 4527

If Tilapia is not announced in 2022.. then why did Zenith secure financing?.. Something is going to be announced soon.
It may be the final step before they sign.. the minister of hydrocarbones was in march/febrary critical to SNPC's lack of progress. So I guess he demand a solid guarantee that Zenith got the muscles to invest/operate.
TheLondonOiler
23.05.2022 kl 14:22 4470

I sincerely believe tilapia would be coming in the next few weeks
Barneskirenn
23.05.2022 kl 13:55 4527

Wasnt this cancelled? And its a new date in 2023?
Edit: that was something else. I can see that they are counting down on their site (22 days left).
Thats good :)
Redigert 23.05.2022 kl 14:12 Du må logge inn for å svare
Frodon
23.05.2022 kl 13:52 4453

Er vell samme om warrents på kr 0,25 løper ut eller ei? For at noen skal gidde å benytte dem, burde kursen være såpass mye over kr 0,25 at de skal kunne selge alle aksjene og fortsatt være i pluss ;)

"34,284,000 Warrants with an exercise price of NOK 0.25 expiring on July 1, 2022"
Gullit
23.05.2022 kl 13:45 4481

Det røres godt i grtyten, la oss håpe den ikke blir svidd i bunnen
Øretriller1
23.05.2022 kl 13:34 3118

Oljeprisen er god.. men la oss få nyheter først i juli. Synes å huske at det løper ut noen titalls millioner warrants på 15 øre fra 1.Juli. Og nyheter vil nok komme. Et selskap med markedsverdi på 177 millioner kommer i juni til å sitte på 180 millioner i cash, fra oljesalg i april&juni + låneopptak i mai. Noen tror at dette er fordi de er på vei til luksusfellen. andre tenker at det er AC som skal på shopping etter nye felt. Så får folk selv bestemme seg for hva de tror er sannsynlig :)
Viking_I
23.05.2022 kl 13:00 3186

Next month oil sale will also give $5 million to Zenith. I am expecting IC after 20th June After Tilapia announcement with some more update from other new big field.
Gullit
23.05.2022 kl 12:32 3249

Helt sinnsyk oljepris…. Måtte vi få noen gode nyheter her snart… skal sies att vedvarende høy oljepris er en daglig god nyhet for en produserende oljemygg…
Frodon
23.05.2022 kl 12:29 3225

Takk for bra svar. Får håpe de oppdaterer markedet snart.

I mellom tiden får vi nyte økende olje pris ;) Hadde vært fint med olje pris på usd 120 ++ før salget av oljen i neste måned
Øretriller1
23.05.2022 kl 10:30 3372

Workover i fjor gikk ut på å trekke produksjonsrør, rengjøre for voks, og kjøre det tilbake.
Denne workover går ut på å trekke produksjonsrør, logge for å finne ut hvor det kommer inn vann, reparere området, og så kjøre tilbake produksjonsrør. mye mer omfattende jobb, og det kan være utfordringer å identifisere området det kommer vann fra.
Slettet bruker
23.05.2022 kl 10:00 3437

Les børsmelding så finner du hvor aksjene kommer fra
Frodon
23.05.2022 kl 09:50 3460

Det tok ikke så lang tid på forrige workover på samme brønn ifjor. Fått større utfordringer nå enn ifjor da?
kaunis
23.05.2022 kl 09:41 3436

Tross en veldig høy og stigende oljepris så fortsetter Zena aksjen å falle. Noen selger hele tiden og hvor henter de aksjer fra?????
happi67
23.05.2022 kl 09:07 3560

Merkelig at det skal ta så lang tid med workover. Må komme noe info ettervært.
Barneskirenn
20.05.2022 kl 11:23 4513

Takk skal du ha. Det rører seg flere steder. Blir spennende å se vedrørende finansieringen(e) som nylig er sikret av zenith.
Fakevenues
20.05.2022 kl 11:07 4543

Jeg videresendte linken til AGEOS:

Fakevenues; thanks for the link to what is a significant development.

In my post of 06.02.2022 regarding the involvement of Trident OGX Int Pte Ltd in an MKB Field production potential study, I maintained a previously outlined proposition that MKB in part or whole might be the “second production asset” first announced by ZEN in an RNS of 07.07.2020. Clearly this latest announcement confirms that the MKB Concession will henceforth be shared by Trident OGX, Orion Oil Ltd [controlled by Lucien Ebata], SNPC [state oil company] and the Congolese government, and operational control is granted to Trident OGX for 20 years.

Although this removes MKB from the ZEN list of potential “second assets”, it provides some reassurance that the Ministry of Hydrocarbons may now be about to move on the Tilapia concession also. As previously posted [20.07.2021 & 08.08.2021], Bruno Itoua the new Minister of Hydrocarbons, was highly critical of Maixent Ominga CEO of SNPC for not having developed the MKB Fields, and had also appointed Stev Onanga as DGH [Directeur General des Hydrocarbures] within the Ministry to expedite this and other developments. Onanga was previously General Manager of SONAREP, the Research & Production subsidiary of SNPC, with responsibility for the State's interest in both Tilapia and MKB.

With the MKB II licensing process now underway it seems likely that Tilapia II will follow shortly.
AGEOS

Barneskirenn
19.05.2022 kl 23:53 4986

Begynner det å skje ting i Brazzaville? Trident OGX for MKB-lisensen:

https://www.adiac-congo.com/content/petrole-la-societe-trident-ogx-va-exploiter-le-champ-mkb-ii-137877
Google translate:
"The American company managed to take the status of operator on the MKB concession (Mengo, Kundji and Bindi), operated until then by the National Petroleum Company of Congo (SNPC). The process of transferring the MKB II permit from SNPC to Trident OGX was launched on May 17 in Brazzaville, bringing together all the parties involved.

Negotiations for the transfer of the MKB II concession involve the company Trident OGX, Orion Oil LTD, SNPC and the Congolese government. They aim, according to the parties, to strengthen the collection of data with a view to increasing production from the oil field. The operating permit was granted to the American company by decree no. 2021-539 of December 14, 2021, for a period of twenty years.

The launch of the transfer of the operating license from MKB II to Trident is an important step in the development of the oil block, said Trident OGX Managing Director John W. Chisholm. "It's about seeing how we are going to work together in the spirit of collaboration and partnership and to mobilize experts in order to strengthen the capacities of the SNPC, to share and analyze block data, to maximize production,” said John W. Chisholm.

A study conducted by the SNPC for the reassessment of the hydrocarbon potential and the implementation of the development plan on the MKB II field revealed the existence of areas of interest not yet exploited, as well as the need to use new technologies better suited to the characteristics of the fields, with a view to boosting production. The results of the seismic reprocessing and reinterpretation are very interesting and confirm the potential of the block.

The deposits of the MKB field were discovered in the 1980s, the site is composed of three deposits (Mengo, Kundji and Bindi) located respectively 15, 20 and 25 km from the Djeno oil terminal. The MKB II production sharing contract was signed in June 2018 by the State, SNPC (60%) and Orion Oil LTD (40%). SNPC took over these fields and carried out two 3D seismic surveys, over a total area of ​​240 km². It has drilled and brought into production eight wells, which produced 1,437,440 barrels, on the Kundji field alone."
Barneskirenn
19.05.2022 kl 23:40 4880

Artikkel fra 18.05.22 i Africa Intellegence. Noen som har tilgang til hele artikkelen? Skulle gjerne lest hele.. Ser det gjelder SNPC.
https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-and-west-africa_politics/2022/05/18/andely-turns-his-attention-to-the-debt-of-public-sector-companies,109785553-art

"Andely turns his attention to the debt of public sector companies

After having negotiated debt agreements with the Republic of the Congo's bilateral partners and trading groups, finance and budget minister Rigobert Roger Andely has turned his attention to state-owned companies. First in line will be the all-powerful Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo, which has contracted debts totalling more than $2bn. [...]"
Gullit
19.05.2022 kl 15:55 5060

Da er det mange som vil laste., skjer nok ikke det. Men 0,2-0,3 innen juli er ett firsiktig anslag..
Redigert 19.05.2022 kl 15:56 Du må logge inn for å svare
futureistoday
19.05.2022 kl 15:32 5031

I am not here to spread negativity, i am very positive towards zena 😊 I would not invest here otherwise. But i like to seperate fact’s and opinions. I have read the article you posted earlier. But it does not mention zenith anywhere, and it most certainly do not mention that tilapia is in zeniths bag. So this is my point, if you draw the conclusion that zenith will Get tilapia over the finish line at the conference. It is only your opinion not a fact. I myself have also an idea of what will happen the next months, but its only my opinions so i dont state them as fact’s here. I think you deliver many good posts, but regardiing timelines and the difference in fact and opinion it could be wise to say its your opinion etc, instead of stating facts that turns out to be bs regarding timeline. I think zeniths time will come in due course😉
Billyjojimbob
19.05.2022 kl 14:08 5169

Du får bruke komfepengene dine , hvis du får noen og kjøpe deg noen luter,, før den skyter ivei👍🇧🇻