Zenith Energy - Oljen priset til usd 1 pr fat?

Frodon
ZENA 29.04.2022 kl 12:56 175591

Er dette blant de billigste olje selskapene pr dags dato? Er oljen de eier priset til ca usd 1 pr fat? I tillegg til olje produksjon, selger også selskapet gass og strøm. Bare strøm produksjonen som selskapet har i Italia, tjener selskapet nok penger til å forsvare hele børs verdien på kr 180 millioner

"Electricity prices during the month of March 2022 averaged approximately EUR 295 per MWh, resulting in net revenues of approximately EUR 300,000 per month. Zenith’s current net production costs remain fixed at approximately EUR 35,000 per month"

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/558660

"Oil production:

Zenith has reported production from its Tunisian assets in the first half of 2021/22 at 517 b/d. Shipments were somewhat lower at 371 b/d. Significantly, production in Tunisia was running at 650 b/d net in late September including conditional SLK output. Zenith suggested that 1,000 b/d is possible by the second quarter of 2022 assuming successful workover and drilling activity

Tunisia work programme:

Zenith has interests in four producing licences in Tunisia. At Robbana in the south of the country the workover of the ROB-1 well was successfully
completed in early Q4 2021. Production was boosted from approximately 20 b/d to 100 b/d. Near-term, the work programme in Tunisia involves drilling a vertical well at Robbana and two side-tracks in non-producing wells at the Ezzaouia also in the south of the country. The objective is 1,000 b/d for the latter while for the former we believe 500 b/d might be possible. The cost of US$2.5m is underpinned by the recent US$4m equity raise

Valuation and financing

Reflecting the sometimes difficult operating and business environment, valuations for undeveloped resources in Nigeria are modest. We believe valuation might well be less than US$1/barrel. If we assume US$0.5/barrel and 233mm barrels of resources for the two discoveries the valuation would be US$117m. A 42% interest would therefore be US$49m which implies significant headroom vis-à-vis the US$20m as per the OML 141 option agreement.

Zenith has indicated that plans have already been finalized for drilling the Barracuda 5 well (B-5). Apparently, all the necessary civil engineering work has been undertaken for the well including dredging and site clearance. The well location is between two previously drilled wells which have encountered ‘significant hydrocarbons’. The indications are that drilling will commence in January 2022. In a success case Zenith has indicated that production is expected to start immediately using a barge-mounted early production facility. Production could commence during the second quarter of 2022 at a rate of approximately 4,000 b/d, according to Zenith. Further development is expected with the locations for Barracuda wells 6, 7 and 8 already identified. If Zenith chooses to exercise
the option agreement, there will, therefore, be an ongoing corporate and development financing requirement"

Informasjon hentet fra linkene under

Prospektet 4.3.2022

https://wp-zenith-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/03/315-033-Prospectus-2022-final-approved.pdf

Analyse fra Allenby Capital 14.12.2021:

https://www.allenbycapital.com/our-research/?msclkid=f7a374b5c7a911ecaa511cb87e0b4104&fwp_research_client=2618

Børs meldinger fra selskapet:

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/search?category=&issuer=12675&fromDate=&toDate=&market=&messageTitle=
Gullit
23.05.2022 kl 13:45 4461

Det røres godt i grtyten, la oss håpe den ikke blir svidd i bunnen
Frodon
23.05.2022 kl 13:52 4433

Er vell samme om warrents på kr 0,25 løper ut eller ei? For at noen skal gidde å benytte dem, burde kursen være såpass mye over kr 0,25 at de skal kunne selge alle aksjene og fortsatt være i pluss ;)

"34,284,000 Warrants with an exercise price of NOK 0.25 expiring on July 1, 2022"
Barneskirenn
23.05.2022 kl 13:55 4507

Wasnt this cancelled? And its a new date in 2023?
Edit: that was something else. I can see that they are counting down on their site (22 days left).
Thats good :)
Redigert 23.05.2022 kl 14:12 Du må logge inn for å svare
TheLondonOiler
23.05.2022 kl 14:22 4450

I sincerely believe tilapia would be coming in the next few weeks
Barneskirenn
23.05.2022 kl 14:30 4507

If Tilapia is not announced in 2022.. then why did Zenith secure financing?.. Something is going to be announced soon.
It may be the final step before they sign.. the minister of hydrocarbones was in march/febrary critical to SNPC's lack of progress. So I guess he demand a solid guarantee that Zenith got the muscles to invest/operate.
TheLondonOiler
23.05.2022 kl 15:06 4605

I think zenith are just finalising the final loose ends before announcement - one thing is for certain when announced there will be a huge re-rating in the share price. I expect minimum double from where we are now.
Viking_I
23.05.2022 kl 15:07 4607

hidden volume to buy at 0.0990 5T, it will create pressure at seller side.
Redigert 23.05.2022 kl 15:08 Du må logge inn for å svare
Barneskirenn
23.05.2022 kl 15:17 4581

The price right now is a joke.. 20øre with the tilapia license is still very low. But in traditional Zenith-pricing, we should maybe expect around 20øre!...
Viking_I
23.05.2022 kl 15:27 4591

Tilapia 2 Valuation - Djeno+ Mengo +R1/R2 - 2P reserve 60% to zenith gives 16.49 MMBLL - loan $2.5 million to drill - current oil price $113 - Valuation kr 0.86
Redigert 23.05.2022 kl 15:28 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
23.05.2022 kl 19:01 4385

The price will be a joke next year aswell, according to this forum.
Slettet bruker
23.05.2022 kl 19:54 4294

Agre.

Sell.
Galv
23.05.2022 kl 20:46 4193

Hi Viking

I know your number from before. Still when we drill we can unlock more p2 reserv. Please make vikings valuation calculation for 0.86 nok public to all. Anyway hope Tilapia 2 in place before 1.7 and drill startet before 1.10 in 2022.
TheLondonOiler
24.05.2022 kl 09:41 3885

Price next year will be multiples where it is now according to how much oil we produce and sell from Tunisia and electricity sales from Italy alone. Now if we get Tilapia signed and sealed then you can add another multiples on top of that. Perfect buying opportunity right now.
Viking_I
24.05.2022 kl 11:06 3781

Detail calculation refer page 6, Zenith valuation report from 14th Dec Exhibit 3: Zenith valuation estimate analysis
https://wp-allenby-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/12/20211214-Zenith-Energy-ZEN.L-Allenby-Capital-Interims.pdf?c2642=on
2p Reserve Djeno+ Mengo +R1/R2 - 2P reserve 60% to zenith gives 16.49 MMBLL ( report included only 56% of Djeno formation got 2P reserve for other formation (currently producing ) from AAOG report )

Metric EV/2P - 11 (oil price $70 -3.5 (Capex + tax royalty), oil price $70 to 100 - 7 and above hundred 50% (Tax and royalty ) $110 - ($113-$110)/2 = $6.5.
3.5 +3.5 +6.5 = 13.5 (i have taken 11 )
Loan - $2.5 million for remaining drilling.
Redigert 24.05.2022 kl 11:12 Du må logge inn for å svare
MarketGunsling
24.05.2022 kl 11:40 3709

Zenith has never been in as good a position as the company is now if you ask me. We are generating very real cash revenue out of our Tunisian assets and we have significant expansion plans in Tunisia (of which the remedial work at Rob-1 is already in process) which should enable us to double production from the current levels by the end of summer. This could leave Tunisia developing in excess of $20 million per annum in profit. Our Italian assets also continue to generate Euros 2-3 million per annum and also have the potential to expand with some investment.

So we are generating massive profit from both the Tunisian and the Italian operations. However, the big news that we are all waiting for is of course (still) Tilapia. This is the news that will drive the shareprice forwards into multiples of it’s current values and is also the most mysterious bit about the company’s current operations. As soon as this arrives the game changes for Zenith completely. I was always delighted at the (relatively small) revenue generation that we were originally looking at from Tunisia because this would have allowed us to take out debt to drill Tilapia instead of having to issue equity as we have done in the past. However, with oil prices as their current unparalleled levels then it seems that by the end of June we will already have enough cash in the back to drill two Tilapia wells without having to borrow any money at all – though I totally accept that some of this money has to go to cover general company opex. Of course, first we actually have to be granted the Tilapia license and there brings me to my only issue with Zenith at our current status – we always seems to just be waiting for governments to make their decisions and until they do then the real value of the company will never be shown in the share price.

My assessment of what we are waiting on for Zenith is as follow.

In Tunisia:
1) We should be expecting the receipt of the $6.4 million any day now and it may already have been paid.
2) We are expecting to despatch another $5.5 million worth of oil next month and will, presumably, receive payment for that in July.
3) The remedial work on Rob-1 should also be finished any day (to be honest I am surprised that it has not already been completed) and this should allow us to generate an additional 100-120 bopd (which should generate a net revenue of $3.2 – 3.8 million per annum) at an oil price of $113 and an opex cost of $25.
4) We still have the fully funded work on Ezzaouia and Rob-3 to carry out towards the end of June.

In Italy
1. We continue to generate extremely high electricity revenues from our Italian assets which are generating a net revenue of between Euros 2-3 million per annum.
2. Looking at the website we also have the potential to significantly increase the revenues generated from our Italian assets. I have never paid too much notice to these in the past but it is interesting to note that on the website they mention that “Zenith’s Italian energy production interests hold significant potential for development and increased energy production. The development programme is primarily concentrated on the Torrente Cigno concession, where the Company is finalising a plan to drill a development well, to be named MV-2, to explore the updip structure of the Miocenic and Cretaceous carbonates formations”.
3. I wonder if the latest financing of E1.3 million that was announced alongside the last electricity revenue numbers may be to carry out this work.

In Congo
1. We are still waiting for confirmation that we have received the new Tilapia license and while AC says all of the signs here are good, we have still been waiting for over a year since we were announced as the preferred bidder.
2. Indications that things are likely to end up good here can be taken from the fact that Andrea has mentioned that when the license is approved then we are likely to get more than one Congolese asset and so presumably he has been in ongoing (and positive) negotiations about this for some time.
3. I presume that with the receipt of $12 million in revenue from Tunisia during May and June we will be in a position to immediately commence fully funded work on one or more of these assets as soon as we get the license.

But in short, and as ever, we are really just stuck waiting for news at the moment. I assume that we should hear news about ROB-1 next though, like everybody else, what I really want too hear about is Tilapia.

We must be due a new conference call any time now and it would be good to hear directly from Andrea what is going on. All the pieces are in place for a massive expansion in share price but the big question is when will this happen. As soon as we get Tilapia then this is a market-wide re-rate for the company as we will have cash income and exploration potential which is the holy grail of all small-cap companies.
TheLondonOiler
24.05.2022 kl 14:41 3476

nice summary MG - all in all we have a lot to look forward to just amount of when not if.
Tricky
24.05.2022 kl 15:41 3394

Agree. Might take day or weeks or even a couple of months. Otherwise why all the work getting the funding ready.
Slettet bruker
24.05.2022 kl 15:51 3364

Du glemte,- til og med år!
Tricky
24.05.2022 kl 16:25 3295

Nei var bevist. :)
VårDitto
24.05.2022 kl 16:29 3286

Bevisst kanskje, men ingenting er bevist, det er jo det som er problemet ;-)
Konjagi
24.05.2022 kl 20:03 3086

Må si det er klasseforskjell i kvalitet på innleggene her, fra det enkle og barnslige til analytiske og veloverveide. Thank you for keeping up the good work despite the noise
Slettet bruker
25.05.2022 kl 10:56 2644

Aktiv går, internasjonal i formuleringene, stille i dag.

Klar for ny short?
flingaas
25.05.2022 kl 11:01 2909

Håper du tjener pengene du tapte på Zenith tilbake i Havyard så vi slipper surmulingen din på forumet :)
Slettet bruker
25.05.2022 kl 11:03 3010

Godt svart!
Slettet bruker
25.05.2022 kl 11:10 3054

Ante meg at alle lån og aksjetrykking gikk til andre ting enn å utvikle selskapet
futureistoday
25.05.2022 kl 11:13 3063

Til og være en klovn på dette forumet så har du jo innimellom morsomme tekster av og til og😂🤡
Frodon
25.05.2022 kl 11:15 3063

Fint bidrag for å blidgjøre myndighetene ;) Tviler sterkt på at dette er tilfeldig
Svartsyn
25.05.2022 kl 12:51 2935

Et genialt trekk. Flere av de. .Takk
Frodon
25.05.2022 kl 12:57 2939

Kanskje et lag i Kongo trenger hjelp? ;)
Computum
25.05.2022 kl 13:07 2924

Oljeprisen er opp 45% i år, mens Zena er ned 16% (mine aksjer er ned 30% siden jeg kjøpte).
Hvordan ville aksjekursen vært uten stigende oljepris?
Jeg har ikke satt meg særlig inn i selskapet, men sitter med en følelse av at her er noe som ikke lukter helt bra.
Hva sier Herman?
Viking_I
25.05.2022 kl 14:19 2830

No point to sell below 0.10, it just tactics to buy cheaper. Hidden order at 0.0988 10T
Redigert 25.05.2022 kl 14:48 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
25.05.2022 kl 15:31 2745

Er det noe poeng å kjøpe under 0,10 da?
heltos
25.05.2022 kl 16:05 2694

Tenker det same, her skulle Zena virkelig fått betalt etter de siste par årene med god innsats med å legge grunnlag for vekst og økende oljeproduksjon, samt videre god hjelp og løft av en høy oljepris. Er virkelig tilliten til dette selskapet så skakkjørt?
Frodon
25.05.2022 kl 16:08 2710

Tja, godt spørsmål. I min verden vinner regnskap alltid til slutt, men tiden det tar kan variere utrolig mye. Det viktigste er at energi prisene er høye i lang tid og at pengene ikke blir sløst bort.

Med dagens olje og dollar kurs, skal olje salget i juni 2022 på ca 52.000 fat olje, utgjøre en inntekt på ca kr 57.177.432. Det er ca kr 10 mill mer siden forrige olje salg, kun fordi olje pris og dollar har steget. Det er mye penger for et selskap som er priset til kr 173 mill
Slettet bruker
25.05.2022 kl 16:16 2755

Jo, men 100 mill i nye lån siste mnd er mye det også, når det eneste en får er sponsing av av en slags klubb. Heia Sæbø!

Rart det ikke børsmeldt.
Redigert 25.05.2022 kl 16:17 Du må logge inn for å svare