GOGL -Vi er i startgropen i en supersyklus (4)

nman
GOGL 21.06.2022 kl 22:26 283914

Lager nok en ny tråd, da forumet ikke takler store tråder.

Her er link til den forrige tråden:
https://finansavisen.no/forum/thread/146399/view
nman
19.11.2022 kl 08:49 7006

Nærmer seg brått igangsettelse selv om det det tar tid før en ser effekter. (Nå seiler jo også endel skip sakte allerede pga høye fuel-priser.)
The new rules require that as of 1 January 2023 all applicable vessels must start collecting data for the reporting of their annual operational carbon intensity indicator (CII) and CII rating, and at first survey after this time, verification of the calculated attained Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI).
EEXI
Existing ships of 400 GT and above will be required to calculate its attained Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI), which indicates its energy efficiency. The vessel must then meet a specific required EEXI, which is based on a required reduction factor to reduce its carbon emissions.
The vessel’s attained EEXI and technical file is to be verified at the first annual, intermediate or renewal survey after 1 January 2023. This forms part of the scope of the International Air Pollution Prevent (IAPP) survey, whereupon the vessel is issued with an International Energy Efficiency Certificate (IEEC).
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/marpol-changes-to-tackle-carbon-emissions-now-in-force/
nman
19.11.2022 kl 08:55 7010

Iron ore futures advanced on Friday and were set for their third straight weekly rise, as top steel producer China’s latest moves to shore up its flagging economy brightened demand prospects.
Expectations that Beijing will take more policy actions to support the economy, after easing some of its strict COVID-19 containment rules and unveiling fresh measures to aid an ailing property sector, added to the buoyant mood.

“(China’s) stimulus policies have pushed up price expectations for iron ore,” Huatai Futures analysts said in a note.
China should set its economic growth target no lower than 5% for 2023, Liu Shijin, a policy adviser to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), said on Friday, supporting Beijing’s pro-growth stance.

China has fine-tuned its zero-COVID strategy, which has caused significant economic damage, even as the number of new infections is surging.
“Looser quarantine rules suggest an end to the restrictions is closer than we thought,” ANZ commodity strategists said in a note.
Projecting a “softer landing” now for the Chinese property sector, ANZ has increased its forecast for China’s 2023 steel output to 1.05 billion tonnes from 1.01 billion tonnes, and expects the iron market to remain in deficit.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/iron-ore-extends-rally-on-china-demand-hopes/
nman
19.11.2022 kl 08:57 7022

Nov 19 (Reuters) - South Africa's state logistics firm Transnet said on Saturday it has reopened one of the two lines on the North corridor which was closed earlier this month following the derailment of a train carrying export coal.

The logistics company said that operations have commenced and Freight Rail teams are working to clear the staged trains and backlog.

Insufficient rail capacity and poorly maintained infrastructure have been hurdles for mining companies which have been seeking to export more coal as demand surges following a European Union ban on fossil fuel imports from Russia.
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africas-transnet-reopens-one-line-north-corridor-2022-11-19/
ørnen
19.11.2022 kl 09:46 7046

Jeg har satt stor pris på Kjepet sine kommentarer og innlegg. I dette konkrete tilfelle stiller jeg bare spm om han ikke legger inn tolkninger som det ikke er dekning for/som er høyst tvilsomme. Han har nå tolket tilsvarende nyheter positivt i flere mnd uten at det har materialisert seg.
En annen ting er selvfølgelig at jeg stiller meg svært skeptisk til alle offisielle nyheter fra Kina – ref eiendomssektor, nye store gigantprosjekter. Alt har jo i ettertid vist seg til å være «spill for galleriet» og hatt liten effekt.
Men for all del, man tolker nyheter forskjellig og det er positivt.
Det spekuleres fortløpende i om Kina er på vei til å endre sin C politikk. Lite tyder på det
09.11.2022 CNN
China's southern metropolis of Guangzhou has locked down a third district, as authorities rush to stamp out a widening Covid outbreak and avoid activating the kind of citywide lockdown that devastated Shanghai earlier this year.Guangzhou reported 2,637 local infections on Tuesday, accounting for nearly one third of new cases across China, which is experiencing a six-month high in infections nationwide. The city of 19 million has become the epicenter of China's latest Covid outbreak, logging more than 1,000 new cases – a relatively high figure by the country's zero-Covid standards – for four straight days.
19.11.2022 VG
I den sørkinesiske byen Guangzhou bygges det nå et provisorisk sykehus og karantenesteder med kapasitet til nesten 250.000 senger beregnet for covid-pasienter, ifølge nyhetsbyrået Reuters. Kina opplever nå det største utbruddet av corona-smitte siden april i år. Ifølge kinesiske myndigheter kjemper nå en rekke store byer, inkludert Chongqing og hovedstaden Beijing mot smitten.
Gogl er for meg uinteressant på denne siden av året, finnes mange mye bedre skippingaksjer. Blir sikkert interessant på sikt, men akter ikke å gå i en av de største fellene en aksjespekulant kan gjøre ved å definere aksjen som langsiktig – ref gg. Vi nærmer oss med stormskritt O1 og sesongmessig den svakeste perioden. Er redd at BDI da fort kan bli veldig stygg og at GOGL kan bli enda styggere – time will show.

Bra skrevet, jeg er enig
KJEPET
19.11.2022 kl 12:57 6864

Jeg skriver at det er lys i tunellen i eiendomsmarkedet i China, og at stållagrene er lave i China. Begge med referanser, er det "høyst tvilsomme tolkninger"?

Og du sier at ikke mine tidligere antagelser har materialisert seg? Du vet at GDP i China var +3.9% vs est. +3.4%? Ting snur ikke på blunket. Dette vil bedre seg over tid. Det kommer stadig meldinger nå om at CPP endrer sin holdning bort i fra zero-COVID politikken. Med den ultratynne ordreboken ser jeg meget positivt på bulk de neste årene.

Alle må selvsagt få mene og tolke nyheter på sin egen måte. Jeg angriper ikke noen for det. Respekt for andre meninger er viktig. Det er bare hyggelig at flere bidrar på forumet enten det er i den ene eller den andre veien.

Jeg tror også det er fornuftig å kjøpe på disse nivåene, alle vet Q1 er lavsesong. Men, GOGL har som vanlig sikret mesteparten av ratene sine, og når det snur i Q2 tror jeg ikke man får kjøpt GOGL under kr 100 igjen. Time will tell, lykke til. Håper også å plukke GOGL igjen på 70 tallet, men tviler på jeg er så heldig😀
Redigert 19.11.2022 kl 14:24 Du må logge inn for å svare

Jeg har ikke tilgang. Hva står det?

Se lilleguttens analyser så forstår du hvor mye lit du skal legge i disse kursmålene. :)
bulb
21.11.2022 kl 13:03 6017

Nybestilling av 10 newcastlemax ikke bra, men leveringstidspunkt er bedre.
Delivery of the vessels is due across 2025 and 2026. VesselsValue lists the price of each unit at $64m.
https://splash247.com/bocimar-orders-10-newcastlemaxes-at-beihai/
ørnen
21.11.2022 kl 13:04 6029

Du bør spørre den forgylte geita om ikke han kan komme med en bedre analyse, så får vi se hva som dukker opp! Geita har jo for vane å hause Gogl til krampen tar han, med liten evne til å se totalbildet.
gogl er en dødt case så lenge Kina holder fast på dagens C politikk:
China has locked down a major transportation hub in the south, as the country grapples with its largest nationwide Covid outbreak since April.In recent days, China had begun to ease its harsh Covid restrictions, which had crippled local and international businesses for months. But, experts are worried that Beijing’s resolve to reopen the country may weaken now as cases rise once again.

Nå vet jeg ikke hva lillegutt kursmål er, men det ser ikke ut som Petter haugens sky is the limit kursmål blir nådd med det første heller 🤔
Vampyren
21.11.2022 kl 13:16 5980

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Sparebank 1 Markets nedgraderer 2020 Bulker til nøytral fra kjøp og nedjusterer kursmålet til 85 fra 135, ifølge en analyse mandag.

Videre nedjusterer meglerhuset kursmålet på Golden Ocean til 78 kroner pr aksje, fra tidligere 85 kroner, og gjentar en salgsanbefaling.

Sparebank 1 Markets skriver at begge aksjene handles høyere relativt til langsiktige rater enn de historisk har gjort.

Meglerhuset ser videre nedside i jernmalmvolumene, gitt tilstanden til den kinesiske byggesektoren.

Som et resultat nedjusteres capesize-rateestimatene for 2023 fra 20.000 dollar pr dag til 18.000 dollar pr dag, som fortsatt er betydelig høyere enn nåværende 2023 capesize-rater indikert av FFA-kurven på 12.100 dollar pr dag.

"Vårt inntrykk er at markedet satser på at Kina om kort tid går vekk fra sin null-covid-politikk, med en påfølgende økning i etterspørselen etter råvarer. Vi sliter imidlertid med å bruke dette som et utgangspunkt ettersom en brå slutt på den strenge politikken kan skape en stor 'exit-bølge' av nye smittetilfeller, som kan overbelaste helsesystemet, og selv om Kina skulle åpne igjen raskt, er vi ikke sikre på at problemene i byggesektoren ville være løst", heter i oppdateringen.
hogan
21.11.2022 kl 15:26 5732

Det er bevilget store penger til grønn infrastruktur og dette skal ikke starte i 2025.
Når alt er klart i dagen engang i 2023 så står Gogl høyere.bulk er bull, rart at ingen analytikere nevner grønn infrastruktur. Alle holder kjeft om det, de gir jo ikke bort viktig informasjon gratis og med en veldig lav ordrebok pluss skraping tror jeg bulk blir veldig bra utover, overraskelsene kommer på oppsiden, alt negativt er priset inn. Hvis du skal kjøpe ørnen når det er skyfri himmel må du betale en del mer.
Hvem bryr seg om kursmål fra sparebanken på hjørnet
Redigert 21.11.2022 kl 15:27 Du må logge inn for å svare

Ok, så alt negativt er priset inn i golden. Det var betryggende.

Enig i at kursmål i seg selv ikke trenger å være så interessant, men begrunnelsen bak kan det være en grunn til å se nærmere på. Det var også ganske kraftige nedjusteringer av kursmål.
desirata
21.11.2022 kl 16:40 5682

Har merket tidligere at ved kurser rundt 80kr, kan en ikke gjøre feil. Gogl kommer til å gi utbytte på 20% eller deromkring på en slik kurs. Da har en kurs upside på toppen. Neste bulk syklus vil aksjen stige til 150kr igjen. Win - Win spør du meg
nman
22.11.2022 kl 08:37 5209

Tar for seg jernmalmutsiktene i Kina, konklusjonen:
Overall, the picture for steel demand outside of residential property is resilient, and if the outlook for the housing sector is improving, it could be a bullish signal for China’s iron ore imports in coming months.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/iron-ores-bounce-may-be-based-on-more-than-just-china-hopes/
Redigert 22.11.2022 kl 08:39 Du må logge inn for å svare
Vampyren
22.11.2022 kl 12:54 4909

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Baltic Capesize-indeksen er ned 3,27 prosent til 9.057 dollar pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange.
Vampyren
22.11.2022 kl 13:23 4843

11:29 Koronasmitten øker kraftig i Kina

De siste tre ukene er det registrert over 253.000 koronatilfeller i Kina, og antall nye tilfeller per dag er økende, opplyser kinesiske myndigheter.

Smitten har økt etter at myndighetene lempet på koronastrategien tidligere i november. I stedet for å stenge ned hele byer, har de satset på mer lokale nedstenginger.

Dessuten er karantenetiden for tilreisende redusert fra sju til fem dager.

(NTB)

Er vel bra at det er såpass med smitte, så kanskje de snart oppdager at det ikke blir så ille som de forestiller seg..
nman
22.11.2022 kl 18:43 4610

Til sammen dekket Citadel og MW inn ca 377k short i går.
https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/Home/Details/BMG396372051

Tipper at GOGL sitt tilbakekjøpsprogram gjør at shorterne ser begrenset «oppside» fra det nivået aksjekursen ligger på om dagen!
nman
23.11.2022 kl 08:08 4519

Kina setter nye rekorder, både når det gjelder elektrisitetsproduksjon fra ren energi, og ifra kullkraft. Og til neste år kan kraftproduksjonen nå nye høyder.

LITTLETON, Colo Nov 23 (Reuters) - China is set to delight and depress climate trackers in equal measure in 2022 by setting new global records in both clean power utilisation and coal-fired electricity emissions.

China's electricity generation from solar power was up by more than 30% in January to October on the same period in 2021, while electricity from wind power jumped 25% to cement the country's status as by far the world's largest deployer of renewable energy, data from Ember shows.
But over the same period, China's use of coal to produce electricity also climbed to new highs, as did the associated emissions.

Indeed, if China's coal use follows traditional seasonal patterns and rises by roughly 30% in December from October's total, then full-year carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired electricity production will top 4.5 billion tonnes in 2022.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-track-hit-new-clean-dirty-power-records-2022-maguire-2022-11-23/
nman
23.11.2022 kl 08:16 4729

Limited Ship Supply Growth Driven By New IMO Regulations To Help Shipping Freight Market Recover In Mid And Long Term.

In its latest analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence, argues that a lack of newbuildings will limit tonnage supply during 2023, thus offering significant support in the freight rate market.
Key highlights from the analysis include:
• While freight rates are expected to return to the pre-pandemic level in 2023, limited active supply growth driven by regulations (demolitions and speed) will likely help the market to recover in 2024 onwards, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

• The Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) is a design requirement for existing ships. Many vessels will go for Engine Power Limitation (EPL), and maximum and operating speed are expected to be reduced.
• The Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) regulation, which will be assessed yearly with stricter emission limits, will start to reduce sailing speed from 2024 and the impact may become significant in scrap activities from 2025 onwards with favorable age profile.
• The CII rating issue would incentivize higher demurrage to reduce idling time and prevent further upside risk in congestion in coming years. While a significant drop in freight rates with high bunker prices has already reduced sailing speed, EEXI-EPL will prevent potential speed recovery.
According to Mr. Daejin Lee, Lead Shipping Analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “Freight rates may return to the pre-pandemic level in 2023 with absence of congestion and weaker economic condition. However, limited active supply growth driven by regulations, which will lead to vessel demolitions and speed reduction, may help the market to recover in 2024 onwards. Since 95% of vessels in service are still using conventional fossil fuel, with IMO’s CII regulation, many vessels will end up scrapped earlier than normal historical lifespan of vessels, which will support freight market in the medium and long term.”
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/limited-ship-supply-growth-driven-by-new-imo-regulations-to-help-shipping-freight-market-recover-in-mid-and-long-term/
phantom1
23.11.2022 kl 09:40 4749

Even as stringent lockdowns, mass screenings and quarantine controls – hallmarks of zero-Covid – continue to weigh on people’s livelihoods while depleting local governments’ finances, most economists do not expect China to fully reopen until after the completion of its political reshuffling in March.
“In the face of the zero-Covid policy, all of the other policies [to boost the economy] are powerless,” said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, who projects a 4.3 per cent growth rate for the Chinese economy in 2023.
But Lu cautioned against blindly expecting a rapid economic recovery even if China does fully reopen towards the end of the first quarter.

Stemmer det. Den gode nyheten vi fikk for et par uker siden var at gjenåpning mest sannsynlig vil skje i Mars 23 versus tidligere forventning om tidligst Sommer 23. Er overaskende for meg at folk blir 'skuffet' i etterkant av disse nyhetene at det faktisk var snakk om Mars og ikke 'nå'. Viktig for folk å lese mer enn bare overskrifter.

Nordnet har ex-dag til 25.11 for utbytte. Dette må da være feil??

Declared currency: USD. Dividends payable to shares registered with Euronext VPS
will be distributed in NOK.

Last day including right: 24 November, 2022

Ex-date: 25 November, 2022

Record date: 28 November, 2022

Payment date: On or about 5 December, 2022. Due to the implementation of CSDR in
Norway, dividends payable on shares registered with Euronext VPS is expected to
be distributed to Euronext VPS shareholders on or about 7 December, 2022.

2 uker til reinvestering, blir en glede å forhøye antall aksjer inn mot 2023.

Så de på Nasdaq må eie aksjen ikveld med andre ord, siden det er stengt der i morgen pga Thanksgiving.
nman
23.11.2022 kl 13:49 4938

Vietnam planlegger å øke kullforbruket de kommende årene.

Under the government's latest baseline scenario, coal would remain Vietnam's most important source of energy until 2030 with more than 36 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity and up to 11 new coal-fired power plants to be built in coming years, up from about 21 GW in 2020 and 30 GW in 2025.

https://www.reuters.com/business/cop/vietnam-boosts-coal-use-plan-2030-g7-climate-offer-stalls-2022-11-23/
nman
24.11.2022 kl 08:01 4206

BEIJING, Nov 23 (Reuters) - China will use timely cuts in banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR), alongside other monetary policy tools, to keep liquidity reasonably ample, state media on Wednesday quoted a cabinet meeting as saying.

Hurt by COVID-19 restrictions and a sharp property downturn, China's economy has been struggling to get back on its feet, even after a flurry of policy measures this year to spur domestic demand.

The cabinet also called for speeding up investment and construction of major infrastructure projects, and called for stabilising and expanding consumption and vowed to support sound development of the platform economy, state media said.

To support the sluggish housing market, China will push forward the implementation of special loans for home delivery and encourage commercial banks to issue new loans, CCTV reported.

Deputy PBOC governor Pan Gongsheng said the bank would provide 200 billion yuan ($27.93 billion) in loans to six commercial banks for housing completions, state media Economic Daily said on Monday.

Three of China's biggest commercial banks have agreed to provide fundraising support to property developers, including industry giant Vanke, in a coordinated effort to support the country's embattled property sector.

On Wednesday, the PBOC issued a notice outlining 16 steps to support the property industry, including loan repayment extensions, in a major push to ease a liquidity crunch which has plagued the sector since mid-2020. Reuters reported last week on the rescue package, citing sources.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-will-use-timely-rrr-cuts-keep-liquidity-ample-state-media-cites-cabinet-2022-11-23/
nman
24.11.2022 kl 08:13 4203

Brazil’s 2023 corn exports could get big boost from China.

Brazilian corn exports could jump exponentially next year if farmers harvest a full crop and Chinese demand is strong, Brazil’s National Association of Grain Exporters said on Tuesday.
Brazil is poised to export 40 million tonnes to 50 million tonnes of corn next year, boosted by a new trade protocol with China and a potential bumper crop, said Sergio Mendes, director general of the group, known as Anec, in an interview.
Brazil could export as much as 5 million tonnes of corn to China alone in 2023, making it a key supplier to the country alongside the United States. China’s import demand is 18 million tonnes for the 2022/2023 cycle, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/brazils-2023-corn-exports-could-get-big-boost-from-china/
KJEPET
24.11.2022 kl 09:18 4221

Når alle mener ting vil bli veldig bra om noen måneder, men at man kan vente med å kjøpe pga CNY så kan det være et godt tidspunkt å kjøpe på. Å vente med å kjøpe til etter CNY har jeg hørt om før. Mange har gått på en smell der :-)
phantom1
24.11.2022 kl 10:45 4068

mest pga Argentina har værste på 20 år - tonnmilene veier hverandre opp siden de er nabo land. 15 mill tonn

“The sector is preparing for one of the worst Argentinian crop years in the last 20 years,” said Cristian Russo, an agronomist at the Rosario stock exchange. “Water reserves are like fuel for these crops, and we are starting the crop year with an empty tank.”

Sluttet på 86,6 i US i går, stengt idag... tror det ødela taktikken for noen i dag...