Global Ship Lease

NetromK
GSL 31.07.2022 kl 19:58 7960

Global Ship Lease

Her kjem eit lite samandrag om Global Ship Lease og deira drift.
Til info kjem selskapet med Q2-rapport 04.08.22.
Tal nordnetkundar 31.07: 230

Global Ship Lease eig containerskip dei leiger ut, som andre selskap som MPCC, Danaos, Ernst Russ, Euroseas m.fl. Flåten bestod inn i 2021 av 43 skip, eit av dei er solgt. Dei kjøpte så i 2021 23 brukte skip for 498mUSD, så talet på skip skal no vere 65 om eg ikkje har oversett noko.
Ganske likt tal som hos MPCC, men storleiken på skipa er i gjennomsnitt betydeleg større sidan mange av skipa er >5000 TEU.

Earning per share (EPS) Q1 2022 var 1,91 USD/aksje. I dag står kursen til selskapet i 18,72.
Tal aksjar i selskapet er i underkant av 36 millionar.
Kursen har svinga veldig på kort tid, og både 52 veker høg og låg ligg ikkje langt bak oss.
Høg 30,02 mars 2022, låg 14,62 juli 2022.
2021 var det 4 utbyttebetalingar på 0,25 dollar/aksje.
2022 er beløpet auka 50% til 0,375/aksje.
I tillegg til utbytte har selskapet eit pågåande tilbakekjøpeprogram på 40mUSD der dei gjennom
Q1 kjøpte ca. 185 000 aksjar til ca. 26,6$ per stk. Ein kan sei timinga ikkje var optimal gitt at kursen har rast etter den tid. Snur ein på det vert eg overraska om ikkje dei har handla betydeleg aksjar og helst brukt heile ramma no gjennom Q2. Dei kjøpte også aksjar Q3-2021.
På lågaste kurs kunne ein kjøpt ca. 7,5% av aksjane i selskapet for eksiterande ramme.
Omsetjinga i aksjen er høg frå januar 2021 av med nær alle månader med omsetjing >10 mill aksjar. April 2022 over 30 mill aksjar, og nesten alle uteståande omsatt ein gong. Altså føregår det nok mykje trading her.

Utsikter:
Fundamentale forhold er litt som for andre selskap. Ein kan lese mykje om dette t.d i MPCC Bull trådane her inne. Ein forskjell er at skipa er betydeleg større, med fordelar og ulemper det kan ha.
Her som oss andre gjorde ein handelboom kombinert med nedsteningar og traffikkork 2021 ellevilt kva angår inntjening samanlikna med 2020, og 2022 vert truleg ei ny dobbling om ikkje litt meri frå 2021. Mange skip har veldig solide kontrakter i 3-5 år.
Resesjonsfrykt er nok det som i størst grad har dratt ned kursane i det seinare, saman med fall i spotrater. Men, utleigerater har holdt seg sterkt, og berre for få dagar sidan kunne ein sjå i rapportar at skip tilhøyrande GSL er forward-fixed frå 2023 av og 5 år fram i tid.

I tillegg: i Q2 og Q3 2022 gjekk/går 10 av GSL sine skip over på nye kontrakter, og det er ikkje små summar det er snakk om i dagleg rater, eller i endring for den saks skuld:
Kumasi 9300-> 38 000/d
Akiteta 9300-> 32 000
Manet 12 850-> 32 000
GSL Valerie 13 250-> 35 600
Dolphin II 24 500-> 53 500
ZIM Europe 14 500-> 24 250
UASC Al Khor 34 000-> 65 000
Maira X 31 650-> 65 000
Matson Moloka 20 250-> 36 500
GSL Rossi 20 000-> 38 870

Mykje å merke seg, kanskje spesielt dei to skipa på 65 000$/d. Ved evt. cash break even på ca. 10 000$/d vil disse over sine femårskontrakter dra inn netto ca. 5,5$/aksje aleine. Og aksjekursen var altså nettopp nede under 15.
Dei ti kontraktene aukar dagleg inntjening med ca. 210 000$/døgn og med det netto inntjening omtrent det same då break-even ikkje skal forandre seg særleg. Dette er nok til å auke kvartalsvis EPS med ca. 0,5$ per aksje frå 1,9 til litt over 2,4, dette utan å ta med tilbakekjøp i reknestykket.
Altså, med dette kan EPS 2022 truleg verte i området 9-10$/aksje. P/E då under 2, og kanskje ned mot 1,5 på lågaste aksjekurs og med evt. EPS 10$.

Frå denne vekas Seasures, forward-fixing av GSL sine skip:
=GSL Susan= Pmax 4363 Hyundai Mipo 2008 – CMA CGM – 5 yrs USD 39000
=CMA CGM Jamaica= Pmax 4298 Hyundai HI 2006 – CMA CGM – 5 yrs USD 39000
=CMA CGM Sambhar= Pmax 4045 CSBC Kaohsiung 2006 – CMA CGM – 5 yrs USD 39000
=CMA CGM America= Pmax 4045 CSBC Kaohsiung 2006 – CMA CGM – 5 yrs USD 39000

For GSL Susan er rate 22 000/d og dei tre andre 25 350/d. Dei vert altså leigde til langt ut i 2027 så sant disse kontraktene startar medio 2023 og ikkje er ei forlening av pågåande kontrakter som ein har sett tilfeller av inni mellom. Altså vil inntjening etter alt sannsyn halde fram å stige også i 2023.

Oktober 2021 rekna Mintzmyer gjeld til ca 1,1 milliardar dollar og flåteverdi til i underkant av 4,5 milliardar. NAV per aksje den gong 62$. Samtidig satte han Fair value 45$/aksje som er gjentatt fleire gonger på twitter. Selskapet saman med Danaos og nokre andre er blant favorittane hans innan shipping. Og, lessors (utleigeselskapa) skal fylgje etter linere i ein containersyklus og vere meir attraktive når rater for linere faller.

I Q1 rapporten 2022 er det oppgitt net debt 1078 mm$ desember 2021, som skal falle til 913 des. 2022 og 742 des. 2023. Cost of debt er betydeleg ned no frå åra 2018-2020.

I same presentasjon viser GSL til at ordrebestillingar i 2000-9999 TEU storleik utgjer i underkant av 12% av noverande flåte. Og viss skip eldre enn 25år vert skrapa vil auken i flåten berre verte 3% innan utgangen av 2024.

Kursmål:
På investing.com ligg ned 3 kursmål med alle anbefaling kjøp (veit ikkje frå kven) på 30-35 og 38 dollar. Gjennomsnitt 34,33 og nesten dobbelt av noverande kurs.

Wall Street Journal oversikt kurmål:
Stock Price Target GSL
High $38.00
Median $32.50
Low $22.00
Average $31.25
Current Price $17.37

Mintzmyer sin siste "fair value" var 45$/aksje.

Meglarhus med analysar skal vere:
B.Riley FBR
Clarkson Platou Securities (med Frode Mørkedal)
Deutche Bank
Fearnley Securities
Jefferies

Artikkelen til Mintzmyer lenkja til på slutten er anbefala. Er også ein del andre artiklar ein kan kikke på i tillegg til kvartalsrapportar siste året og to.
Kvartalspresentasjon med flåteoversikt viser litt korleis stå er, og kor mange veldig sterke kontrakter GSL har inngått. Kommentarfelt i artiklane inneheld ofte ein del ny relevant info, og litt meir om risk-sida.

Kva Mintzmyer skriv om «counterparty risk»:
“Backlog Counterparty Risk
GSL's backlog also depends on liner companies like COSCO, Hapag-Lloyd, and ZIM making their contract payments. This should not be an issue; however, if freight rates plummeted in the next couple years and the situation was exacerbated by a global recession, then long-tail revenues could become more in question. Liners are making record profits this year and all of them have cleaned up their balance sheets, so I don't foresee any near- or medium-term risk; however, if situations markedly changed, this could be a risk for the out-years 2025+.”

Disclaimer: Eg eig akjsar/sitt long I GSL.
NB: Dette er ikkje investeringsråd, men informasjon. Investeringar er på eiget ansvar og må vurderast nøye av kvar enkelt.
NB 2: Feil i tekst kan førekomme. Vert dei påpeika vil eg mogleg endre i hovudinnlegget, men i så fall skrive endringslogg i botn.

Oct. 13, 2021 Buy Global Ship Lease: Profit From Tight Supply Chains (Mintzmyer)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459541-profit-from-tight-supply-chains-buy-global-ship-lease

Global Ship Lease presentasjonar:
https://www.globalshiplease.com/investors/events-presentations
Nyheiter:
https://www.globalshiplease.com/investors/news

Jul. 18, 2022 Global Ship Lease Comes With A 9.5% Yield And A 50%+ Discount To NAV (Sismanis)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4523893-global-ship-lease-high-yield-50-percent-plus-discount-to-nav
Jul. 20, 2022 Global Ship Lease: Betting Big On Shipping (Ali)
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4524491-global-ship-lease-betting-big-on-shipping


Redigert 02.08.2022 kl 07:42 Du må logge inn for å svare
tapogvinn
31.07.2022 kl 20:07 7420

For et bra skrevet innlegg. Tusen takk.
Mass666
31.07.2022 kl 20:25 7376

Yes, herligt. Tak. Jeg håber flere får smag for GSL!
Patron72
31.07.2022 kl 20:47 7620

Glimrende med en GSL tråd. Så takk til trådstarter 👍

Gleder meg til q2 på torsdag. Litt usikker om rapport kommer før eller etter stenging.
Navios gikk forøvrig 15% opp etter sin q2.
Dac kommer med sin på mandag.
tapogvinn
31.07.2022 kl 20:54 7610

GSL: The Company will issue financial results for the second quarter that ended on June 30, 2022, on Thursday, August 4, 2022, before the open of market trading.
Patron72
31.07.2022 kl 20:54 7605

Takker 👍
Helg11
31.07.2022 kl 22:35 7512

Flott innlegg NetromK!
Jeg er også GSL-aksjonær.
Veldig positivt signal hvis CMA CGM nå leier 17 år gamle holker i 5 år på høye rater med oppstart i midten av 2023... Krysser fingrene for mer tilbakekjøp og økning av fast utbytte.
Slettet bruker
31.07.2022 kl 22:47 7484

Fantastisk, NetromK! Tusen takk for GSL tråd
NetromK
31.07.2022 kl 23:05 7462

Ja, det vil vere veldig positivt.
Legge til litt innsidekjøp evt. så har ein vel omtrent alt ein kan ynskje seg.
NetromK
01.08.2022 kl 12:12 7291

Nye kontrakter har spreidd seg på twitter og rundtforbi, vert spennande opning og dag i dag, og heile veka forsåvidt
med resultatframlegging torsdag 04.08.

Står akkurat no sterkt i pre-market:
18.72 +0.37 (+2.02%)
29/07 - Closed .Currency in USD (Disclaimer)
Pre Market 20.00 +1.28 (+6.84%) 05:58:04 - Real-time Data
NetromK
02.08.2022 kl 07:37 7141

Sterke tal frå Danaos i går, ikkje heilt uventa. Dei er ganske like på GSL mtp. flåtestørrelse, utbytter og tilbakekjøp (starta førre kvartal for DAC sin del).
EPS på 7,6$ gjev ein P/E per kvartalet på 2,4 på gårsdagens sluttkurs. Men for DAC så vil eg tru inntjeninga stig endå minst eit år framover i tid.
Dei betalar ned mykje gjeld.
Kjøper tilbake 409,200 aksjar for over 25mUSD.
Kunngjer utbytte på 0,75$/aksje, som er på eit anna plan enn hos t.d MPCC, men her kjøper dei tilbake aksjar i tillegg og gjer stor gjeldsnedbetaling.

https://www.danaos.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q2/Danaos-Corporation-Earnings-Release-Q2-2022.pdf

Shortandel hos fleire amerikanske containerselskap har også vore høgare enn hos MPCC, hos DAC rapportert opp mot 8-9%.
Så om disse byrjar dekke inn vil det kunne drive kurs raskt opp når resultata er så gode.

Vert spennande med GSL sine som kjem om kort tid. Forøvrig fin utvikling i går.
Helg11
04.08.2022 kl 14:25 6779

Da har kvartalsrapporten ankommet, EBITDA et ørlite knepp over forventning.
Ingen tilbakekjøp eller økning i utbytte enda.
4 skip forward fixed fra januar 2023 (kjent stoff fra ryktebørsen) + GSL Ningbo forward fixed i 4-5 år fra juli 2023 til 54kUSD/dag.
NetromK
04.08.2022 kl 15:14 6727

Sterkt drift, men litt overraskande at ikkje inntjening stig noko meir når 4-5 skip har nye kontrakter (ikkje gått i detalj endå).
Sterkt med alle nye kontrakter annonsert, endå større backlog. Ningbo går frå 22 500/d til 54 000 altså.
Slik eg ser det tullete og skuffande at ein kjøper aksjar på 26,6 og ingenting under 20 og faktisk heilt ned under 15 med den ramme for tilbakekjeøp dei har.
Eg kjem uansett til å holde større posisjon likevel sidan inntjeninga skal stige vidare dei neste kvartal.
Skulle den fall handlar eg kanskje meir også.
Helg11
04.08.2022 kl 15:28 6695

Ja, jeg trodde GSL Ningbo måtte være ny siden det var fra juli 2023. Den nye kontrakten skal gi årlig EBITDA på 16,6 mUSD, så da tok jeg et overslag ut fra dette for å finne estimert TC på 54kUSD/dag.
Ang. tilbakekjøp har de refinansiert flere lån, så mulig de har hatt lange blackout-perioder der de ikke har hatt mulighet til å kjøpe. De har gjentatt at de vil bruke tilbakekjøp når de har muligheten, så mulig det blir mer aktivitet fremover.
Redigert 04.08.2022 kl 15:30 Du må logge inn for å svare
NetromK
04.08.2022 kl 16:12 6638

J Mintzmyer
@mintzmyer

$GSL excellent earnings, strong refinance, blowout charter extension deal, but zero repurchases during Q2.
How can you buy at $26 and then ‘freeze’ all the way down to $15-$16⁉️

Perhaps blackout due to refinancing?

Adding this am, but hoping for more color on the conf call. 🤔
3:56 PM · Aug 4, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
NetromK
04.08.2022 kl 16:37 6616

Kan håpe det er gjort litt tilbakekjøp i juli, altså etter Q2 sidan kursen var lågast då, men kanskje ltit rart å ikkje rapportere om det no likevel.
Danaos rapporterte vel nettopp det. Uansett, overreaksjon ned etter mitt syn, refinansieringar og nedbetaling av gjeld er ikkje å kaste vekk pengar, og
inntjeninga er veldig solid. Vert spennande kva dei legg fram under "earnings call".
Helg11
04.08.2022 kl 21:54 6504

I følge Ortex har GSL en shortandel på massive 8,84%, og har økt den siste tiden. Til sammenligning har MPCC 1,89%. Når shorterne skal dekke inn alt dette kan det gå fort oppover...
NetromK
05.08.2022 kl 07:23 6406

Bud på Atlas Corp
https://gcaptain.com/atlas-corporation-seaspan-buyout-offer-plus-one/

Mintzmyer Twitter 05.08.22
First ‘takeunder’ attempt of a containership #shipping firm at $ATCO. Likely won’t be the last… These companies are insanely cheap… $DAC $GSL or $MPCC next??
https://twitter.com/mintzmyer/status/1555361099637092352?t=q0PPcUMmnzc9TiYzNzn7Mw&s=19
NetromK
06.08.2022 kl 10:37 6282

Litt "DNB-feeling" over sjølv kursmålet, men Jefferies holder på "kjøp" og aukar kursmål frå 22 til 25. Rett veg i alle fall.
NetromK
14.08.2022 kl 09:35 5612

Frå Seasure Report fredag.
Veldig låg rate på Ningbo her, kan dette stemme?
Også rater på dei to andre skipa ligg under opsjonssummen presentert i nyleg Q2-rapport.

=GSL Ningbo= Post P 8667 Samsung 2004 – MSC – 51 mths USD 22500
=GSL Grania= Post P 7849 Hyundai HI 2004 – Maersk Line Ltd – 2 yrs USD 14500
=GSL Kalliopi= Post P 7849 Hyundai HI 2004 – Maersk Line Ltd – 2 yrs USD 14500
viggi87
14.08.2022 kl 12:49 5536

Selskapet selv oppgir at Ningbo får en årlig EBITDA på godt over 16 mill USD, så den kan ikke stemme. Jeg får det til å bli midt på 50k-tallet et sted. Ellers er det ikke alltid at disse rapportene er helt spot on, så jeg tar dem med en klype salt.
durrrrant
14.08.2022 kl 19:24 5423

J Mintzmeyer snakket nylig om dette på Twitter
https://twitter.com/thewaltzy/status/1558527715111800834

Total feilinfo fra Seasure, og Banchero har ikke sluppet sist ukes market report, synd å miste innsyn i chartermarkedet
NetromK
30.08.2022 kl 15:07 4581

Nye forward-fixtures av skip. 6 skip på femårskontrakter, opsjon på eit til. Leige til Hapaq-Lloyd.
Kontraktene startar i tidsrommet "late 2023 to late 2024".

https://www.globalshiplease.com/news-releases/news-release-details/global-ship-lease-announces-forward-charter-agreements
https://www.globalshiplease.com/node/13981/pdf
Redigert 30.08.2022 kl 15:14 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
31.08.2022 kl 07:33 4506

Gikk opp som ei kule i går, spennende å se om det innebærer smitteeffekt på Mpcc
Redigert 31.08.2022 kl 07:33 Du må logge inn for å svare
Patron72
06.09.2022 kl 18:51 4120

Counterparties (i.e., liner companies) have never been in a stronger financial position. Even if freight rates drop, contract renegotiations are highly unlikely.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539145-global-ship-lease-lopsided-risk-reward
NetromK
10.09.2022 kl 10:24 3895

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4539440-danaos-and-global-ship-lease-strongest-conviction-buy-of-my-career

• Long Ideas
Danaos And Global Ship Lease: Strongest Conviction Buy Of My Career

Summary
Sep. 08, 2022 9:00 AM Danaos Corporation (DAC), GSL
• Two of my current top picks in the shipping sector are Danaos Corp. (DAC) and Global Ship Lease (GSL).
• Despite negative macro sentiment, both firms have continued to expand their contract backlog. GSL just announced a deal for six ships which adds $393M of EBITDA from 2024-2029.
• DAC controls six newbuilds with even better specifications, all of which come due for delivery on a similar timeline (mid-2024). I expect an update soon.
• Both stocks have traded weakly this year due to macro sentiment. Total enterprise value is less than contract EBITDA plus demolition: the entire residual business is valued <$0.
• This is the best risk/reward setup I have seen in my career. This report reviews the 'risk/reward' concept, scenario-driven targets, and recent developments.
• This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Value Investor's Edge. Learn More »

Business Overview: Danaos & Global Ship Lease
Danaos Corp. (NYSE:DAC) and Global Ship Lease (NYSE:GSL) are very similar businesses with the same general model as "containership lessors" or "tonnage providers." These firms own and operate the vessels, which serve as the backbone for global trade; however, they do not handle the point-to-point logistics. DAC and GSL lease all of their ships out to major global liner companies like Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM). The rates and terms they can secure depend solely on the supply/demand balance for the vessels themselves. While the underlying freight market rates (i.e. shipping costs) factor into counterparty profits and overall counterparty credit risk, DAC and GSL are otherwise isolated from the volatile freight markets.

Danaos Corp. controls a fleet of 75 vessels (including six newbuilds due in 2024) and has approximately 20.6M shares outstanding for a market cap of roughly $1.35B with a current dividend yield of 4.6%. GSL controls a fleet of 66 vessels and has approximately 36.7M shares outstanding for a market cap of about $670M with a current dividend yield of 8.3%. Both firms have active repurchase programs and both firms are likely to significantly increase their dividend by early-2023.

Record Low Valuations
I have personally followed both of these firms for more than a decade, across a variety of market conditions. The current enterprise valuation levels (vs. EBITDA, cash flow, earnings, or fleet valuations) are at the lowest either of these firms have traded in their entire history while their balance sheets have never been stronger and contract backlog has never been higher. This is a perplexing valuation setup, which can only be explained by the horrendous macro sentiment and a mixture of investor misconceptions and mistrust for these business models.

Both of these firms carry an enterprise value (net debt + market cap of equity) which is below their secured EBITDA + fleet demolition value alone. This means the market is valuing the entire residual value of their fleet below $0. Climent Molins, associate researcher at Value Investor's Edge, has recently published an excellent write-up on Global Ship Lease, which I recommend for more detail on the valuations. Danaos Corp. trades at a very similar valuation, which suggests this is more of an industry-wide misconception and valuation skew as opposed to something specifically 'wrong' or misunderstood about either DAC or GSL.

In this report, I am reiterating my maximum bullish posture on both DAC and GSL. These are among the best risk/reward setups I have seen in my career. If you do nothing else today, please set a one-year calendar reminder with: "J Mintzmyer: GSL $18, DAC $65." I am willing to stake a portion of my portfolio and my reputation as an investor and industry expert on the setup with these two firms. Regardless of how the markets pan out, I encourage everyone to hold me accountable and check back in a year to see how things pan out.

Enterprise Value: Record Low Valuations
If someone quickly pulls up a simple stock price chart for DAC or GSL, they will see shares have appreciated by roughly 12x and 4x respectively over the past two years; however, this is just the common equity price, which started from extremely low levels. In the interim, both of these firms have massively paid down debt, generated significant free cash flow, and expanded their fleets. Since net debt has come down significantly while assets and contract backlogs have surged, both Danaos Corp. and Global Ship Lease are significantly cheaper today at $65 and $18 than they were in 2020 at $6 and $5.
Keep in mind that both firms now have far larger fleets, their balance sheets are night-and-day, and contract backlogs are now the largest in company history. I have never seen a valuation discrepancy like this where a company goes through such a massive transformation and yet overall enterprise value goes down!

Strength and Stability of Lease Contracts
A common misconception is that lease contracts are at high risk of being "renegotiated" if markets weaken. These vessel lease contracts are extremely strong and have been tested in the past; there is essentially no way for terms to change unless the counterparty goes bankrupt or both parties enter mutual negotiations around a major financial restructuring. This model has been stress-tested twice in recent decades when freight markets have struggled: immediately following the 2008-2009 global financial crisis and again during the multi-year freight market downturn from 2012-2018. With limited exceptions for bankruptcy (Hanjin, ZIM) or restructuring (HMM), these contracts were honored during both periods with no shenanigans.

Following the GFC and during the 2012-2018 downturn, liner balance sheets were very weak. Today, liner balance sheets are the strongest in modern history. Counterparty risk is essentially nil on these contracts, but a common refrain from those who do not understand the industry is that "contracts will be renegotiated if shipping rates drop." That viewpoint is not supported by precedent. These contracts are extremely strong and there are no major historical cases of renegotiation outside of major financial distress. In the case of ZIM's bankruptcy in 2013-2014, vessel owners received debt compensation and also received a large equity stake which would eventually provide over 10x returns vs. lost revenues. In HMM's restructuring in 2016, vessel owners received 100% compensation in the form of unsecured bonds and new equity. There was only one clear case of major loss in the past twenty-years: when Hanjin went bankrupt in 2016. This was a complete bankruptcy (i.e. Hanjin ceased to exist as an entity) which also wiped out almost all creditors. There is zero precedent for liners renegotiating rates just because market conditions have changed or liners "don't like" paying high lease rates.

Strong Contracts Are Still Being Signed
Despite weakening freight markets and horrendous macro sentiment, the market balance for vessels remains extremely tight and is expected to be tight through at least mid-2023. The orderbook is elevated (roughly 30%), but the deliveries are weighted mid-2023 onwards, and the industry is facing the largest environmental regulation in history: EEXI and EEDI, which will phase in from 2023-2027. This regulation will require older ships to significantly slow down, which will create a bifurcated market between legacy tonnage and modern eco-design vessels (2014 or newer) while also reducing available supply capacity (ships x speed) by up to 20% over the next five years.

Liners understand these dynamics even if they are far too nuanced for the equity markets to properly value. This is evidenced by a slew of massive contracts, which continue to be signed in recent weeks. Just last week, GSL announced a major forward contract extension for six modern ships with Hapag-Lloyd. This deal doesn't even begin until late-2023 to mid-2024 and will extend contract cover by five years through 2029 at an estimated time-charter equivalent ("TCE") rate of about $43k per day, for $393M in minimum EBITDA. This single deal, for just six vessels, is worth 60% of GSL's entire market cap!

This latest announcement is in addition to a slew of deals previously signed by both DAC and GSL as well as those signed by numerous peers across the market (i.e. not just a 'one-off' deal). The recent contract was obviously good for Global Ship Lease, but arguably the even bigger implied winner was Danaos Corp. DAC owns six newbuilds of even higher specification (slightly larger, more efficient engine design, and dual-fuel methanol capable), all of which deliver around the same timeframe (early- to mid-2024). If GSL can fix their ships for five years at $43kpd, then I believe DAC can likely secure at least mid-$50k, likely for an even longer duration, potentially extending into the 2030s.

Ironically, DAC was widely panned by investors for its decision to add a handful of speculative newbuilds earlier this year, but based on the latest contract extension between GSL and Hapag-Lloyd, I believe Danaos is set to announce a major contract with lucrative terms, potentially announced within a matter of weeks.
NetromK
10.09.2022 kl 10:25 3893

Resten...

Strong Conviction Based on Risk/Reward Skew
I have pounded the table on both Global Ship Lease and peer Danaos Corp. for most of this year (I have been net bullish on DAC dating back to September 2020 at $5.05/sh as well as GSL from the $4s), and I realize that I likely sound like a broken record or seem like the 'boy who cried wolf' at this point, but the cash flow should speak for itself. Eventually, I believe we will collectively look back at this market opportunity and wonder how things could ever have been so mispriced and so collectively misunderstood.

I have been investing in shipping for over 12 years now, and this is arguably the best risk/reward setup I have ever seen in my career. In discussions with other investors, I have noticed that many investors have differing views or constructs of what exactly "risk/reward" constitutes, so I will outline my framework and approach below, which is essentially part of the 'secret sauce' to our consistent and massive market-beating returns we have produced at Value Investor's Edge.
Risk/Reward Framework

We talk a lot about 'risk/reward' on Value Investor's Edge, but I have noticed a lot of people have their own definitions and views of what that means. When I discuss this concept, I am referring to the potential gains or losses across a variety of market scenarios. My typical target holding period in shipping is 12-24 months, but sometimes we get really lucky and an investment turns into a 'trade.'

Some recent examples of investment-turned-trade include TORM (TRMD), where I was perfectly happy owning for a year or more, yet the market continued rising and people finally realized what we already knew (massive dividends incoming). This gave us liquidity and the chance for an amazing lay-up trade across the summer and I have since exited that position for massive gains after just a few months. Scorpio Tankers (STNG) was similar this Spring, where I loaded the wagons around $13/sh and was able to ride the position to $30 in a matter of months. ZIM Integrated Shipping was another position which worked out that way in early/mid-2021 and provided multi-bagger returns across a few quarters. Danaos Corp. itself was yet another example: $5.05 in September 2020 to over $100 in April 2022. Those were amazing setups and follow-throughs, but despite numerous multi-baggers in recent years, normally things take a little longer to pan out. My personal target for investments is normally 12-24 months.

As any seasoned investor knows, not everything goes according to plan with investing or trading. There can be bearish market and macro outcomes, which drag realistic value well below the initial base case. There can also be bullish outcomes, which shoot value far higher than initially expecting (e.g. ZIM in 2021 or STNG this year). Since I am certainly not infallible and I am prone to make mistakes judging future market conditions, the 'secret' to our massively outsized success over the years has been achieved by allocating to stocks with excellent risk/reward. These are positions where even if I am totally wrong and/or everything goes against us, the losses will be minimal. At the same time, the base case has significant upside, and any potential bullish surprise leads to enormous gains. If you invest with great risk/reward, you only have to hit big winners a limited amount of time (i.e. 1 out of 5 or even 1 out of 10 times). This is because you never really lose much with the 'bad' ones while the base case also provides strong average returns.

DAC and GSL are two of the best such setups I have ever seen in my career. It's probably my fault for being a flawed communicator, but I haven't been able to properly convey to skeptical investors just how cheap these names are. Our track record in shipping is well established and my bullish position is well known, yet both firms have traded poorly over the past 5-6 months. The slide has gotten so extreme that both firms are currently valued below their fixed contracts alone, yet they still have significant additional future value from demolishing their older ships and signing the remaining newer ships on new charters from 2024-onward. My 'fair value estimates', which imply around 100% upside for both firms, are already based on semi-bearish market outcomes. The orderbook is large? Yes. Obviously! We have been talking about the orderbook for over a year now... Macro conditions are rough? Obviously! That has also been clear for at least six months by now.
In the worst case of lease rates collapsing in the next few months and DAC and GSL never signing another deal (which seems odd, because GSL just signed six ships last week), DAC is still worth about $100/sh and GSL is worth about $30/sh. In the semi-bearish base case of about six months left of decent markets, followed by a subsequent collapse, I believe DAC is worth about $125 and GSL is worth about $40.

If anything happens remotely better than the above scenarios of a collapse in rates and charters within six months, then DAC could be a $200+ stock (DAC has a bit more leverage to upside because of their newbuilds and ZIM shares) and GSL could easily trade north of $50 by 2024.

Outcome Valuations
• GSL: $30 Bearish, $40 Base, $50+ Bull vs. $18.00
• DAC: $100 Bearish, $125 Base, $200+ Bull vs. $65.00

Fair Value Estimates- DAC: $125.00, GSL: $40
Our current 'fair value estimate' at Value Investor's Edge is $40/sh for GSL, which implies roughly 120% upside. Our 'fair value estimate' for DAC is $125/sh, which implies over 90% upside. Both value estimates are already based on semi-bearish scenario outcomes as outlined above.

Maduro
20.09.2022 kl 23:12 3418

Sikkert lurt å slette det du har repostet fra VIE….
NetromK
26.09.2022 kl 16:47 3289

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4543109-excellent-time-to-overweight-shipping-positions

Global Ship Lease: 'Fair Value Estimate' of $40.00 (154% Upside)
Global Ship Lease (GSL) is a massively discounted and misunderstood stock, which trades below the value of their contract backlog alone. GSL stock has plummeted over the past 5-6 months even as they have completed a comprehensive refinancing and recently added massive new contract deals, some of which extend as far as 2029!
I expect GSL to ramp up repurchases later this year and they are also likely to raise their dividend in early-2023. GSL already yields near 10% and this current payout is more than 4x covered by expected cash flows in 2023-2025. Our research associate, Climent Molins, recently published a comprehensive review of GSL and I included them, along with peer Danaos Corp (DAC) in a 'career conviction' update a few weeks ago.
Patron72
26.09.2022 kl 18:33 3258

Sendte et spørsmål til selskapet.
Her er svaret så da regner jeg med at dere forstår hvilket spørsmål jeg sendte 👍

Thanks.

In the context of your question, our charter contracts, as with pretty much all others in our industry, do not allow the charterer (or us) to walk away or give any rights to change the terms.

Any changes would need to be consensual and willingly agreed by both parties.

Our charter contracts have always performed, even during the depths of the global economic crisis starting 2008. We have never had a bad debt and have always collected monies due.

I hope this helps.
NetromK
28.09.2022 kl 10:11 3151

Kollisjon for GSL skip

GSL Grania på 7874 TEU går på kontrakt for Maersk. Dårleg betalt med ikkje meir enn 17 750$/døgn.
Veldig lite for skip av denne storleiken.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/casualties/turkish-aframax-and-gsl-container-ship-crunched-in-malaysian-crash/2-1-1321751
Redigert 28.09.2022 kl 10:14 Du må logge inn for å svare
NetromK
19.10.2022 kl 12:13 2838

Litt om shortandel i GSL, og denne er stor, og langt over det ein har sett t.d i MPCC.
Fleire dagar handelsvolum short her, i alle fall per utgangen av september. Kan vere
ein del er dekka inn her den seinare tid under kursoppgang, som hos MPCC.

https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nyse-gsl-options-data-report-2022-10-2/
NetromK
19.10.2022 kl 12:17 2837

AMERICAN SHIPPER: Even if existing charters aren’t renewed because liners replace older chartered ships with newbuilds in 2023-2024, lessor companies still have huge backlogs right now, which do not seem to be reflected in the stock prices.

NOKTA: “When we look at valuations of Danaos [NYSE: DAC] or Global Ship Lease [NYSE: GSL], they’re not getting credit for the backlog they have. I don’t want to say these stocks are misvalued, because we don’t know what the future holds. But there’s a lot of pessimism at this point.”

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/the-fall-of-container-shipping-stocks-and-the-rise-of-tankers
NetromK
01.11.2022 kl 14:12 2554

LONDON, Oct. 31, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Global Ship Lease, Inc. (NYSE:GSL) (the “Company”) a containership charter owner, announced today that it will hold a conference call to discuss the Company’s results for the third quarter 2022 on Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The Company will issue financial results for the third quarter that ended on September 30, 2022, on Wednesday, November 9, 2022, before the open of market trading.

What: Third Quarter 2022 Conference Call and Webcast

When: Wednesday, November 9, 2022 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time

Where: There are two ways to access the conference call:

Dial-in: (646) 307-1963 or (800) 715-9871; Passcode: 8514573
Please dial in at least 10 minutes prior to 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time to ensure a prompt start to the call.

Live Internet webcast and slide presentation:
http://www.globalshiplease.com
The webcast will be archived on the Company’s website: http://www.globalshiplease.com

https://www.globalshiplease.com/node/14046/pdf