BWLPG - Øker kursmålet til 267

omans
BWLPG 30.08.2022 kl 09:49 123675

DNB oppdatering etter rapporten:

We find the company overly discounted, despite consistently delivering shareholder value with a constructive sector backdrop. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK110 (108).


Etter q4 rapport februar 2023
We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target to NOK141 (120).

Nytt mål den 20.4.23
We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK145 (141).
-------
Oppdater oktober 2023:
LPG-SHIPPING: Fearnley øker kursmålet i BW LPG til NOK 175 (150), gjentar kjøp.

1.nov 23
Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): DNB Markets oppgraderer Avance Gas til en kjøpsanbefaling med et kursmål på 175 kroner pr aksje, som er opp fra tidligere 108 kroner. BW LPG er meglerhusets toppvalg og kursmålet høynes til 210 kroner pr aksje, fra 147 kroner, med en gjentatt kjøpsanbefaling.

09.1.24
BW LPG: Kepler øker kursmålet til NOK 267 (142), gjentar kjøp.

Redigert 10.01.2024 kl 16:21 Du må logge inn for å svare
Stockflow
19.11.2023 kl 15:07 10335

Ja det er vel det da vil jeg tro.. om NPAT har ligget til grunn for utbytte fra før så vet jeg ikke helt hva som er forskjellen🤷‍♂️

Hva i all verden er det som skjer denne aksjen om dagen?????

Skulle gjerne ha visst hvem det er som "leker seg" med denne!!! Synd at børsen idag skjuler slikt!
Redigert 20.11.2023 kl 16:12 Du må logge inn for å svare

1 443 611

ACC. SHORT %
1,03%

LATEST POSITION (DD.MM.YYYY)
31.10.2023
Mr Jinx
20.11.2023 kl 18:27 9798

1% shorting har det vært en god stund.
Tror fortsatt det er litt etterdønninger etter utbytte. Gev.sikring. Snart setter den fart igjen.
Selv tippet jeg utbytte hentet inn Onsdag kl 12. Vi får se....

Dorian got upgraded by Jeffries from hold to buy, price target 50$

Dorian (NYSE:LPG) rose as much as 10.3% on Monday after Jefferies upgraded its rating on the LPG shipping company to "Buy" from "Hold" along with a price target raise.

The broker research firm changed the price target on Dorian to $50 from $37.

Dorians byks ser ikke ut til å ha umiddelbar smitteeffekt på BW LPG.
Tor Svelland i artikkel i DN:
«De fleste franske og tyske banker er ferdige med å låne penger til shipping. DNB, Nordea og SEB er noen av bastionene igjen som faktisk gjør det.»

Enda vanskeligere å se for seg at markedet blir bygget i hel med det første:
* Verftene fullbooket til 2027.
* Skipsbyggingsindustrien generelt er bygget ned, liten interesse for å bygge nye verft.
* Meget kostbart å bygge nye skip.
* Usikkerhet rundt drivstoff, hvilke regler vil gjelde i framtiden.
* Vanskeligere å finansiere nybyggingskontrakter, flere banker ikke interessert i å være med å låne penger til shipping.
Redigert 21.11.2023 kl 09:37 Du må logge inn for å svare

Det er så bra at det blir vanskelig å bygge nye båter. Jeg tror selgere i Bwlpg er små sparerer hvis en ser på volumet, de som har vært med fr lav nivå og som sikret seg utbytte, mulig kommer vi å se det samme m Avance senere. Volumene flytter seg til Gogl, Fro, Hafnia og det er noe peng å hente der og. Håper vi ser andre priser på BWlpg når det blir notert i usa, hvis vi tar Dorian som pekefinger. Veldig korte penger i denne børsen her dessverre.
Mr Jinx
21.11.2023 kl 12:38 9107

Litt merkelig fall i dag når man tar med de særdeles lyse utsiktene for Q4 og til dels Q1.
Noen som vil forklare fallet?
LeoMinor
21.11.2023 kl 13:42 9136

Kan det være shortere som jobber hardt med å senke kursen? Er lånt ut nesten 1,5 mill aksjer til short og disse må jo ligge med massive tap. Tør vi håpe på en shortskvis..?
KommersK
21.11.2023 kl 14:48 9154

Hvordan mener du de gjør det? Setter de nye shorter? Eller selger de bare aksjer de sitter på? Det er ingen andre måter å få ned kursen på som jeg vet om.
LeoMinor
21.11.2023 kl 15:50 9067

Det finnes programvarer/algoritmer som kan sette kjøps- og salgsordrer og på den måten - til en viss grad - manipulere kursen.
KommersK
21.11.2023 kl 15:54 9164

Taper penger med vilje, da.
Hvis man er innstilt på å betale for å få ned en kurs, så er det selvsagt mulig.
Redigert 21.11.2023 kl 15:55 Du må logge inn for å svare

Jefferies is raising its VLGC rate forecast to $75,000 per day for 2024, up from $45,000 previously.
Richter
22.11.2023 kl 09:17 8774

Jeg lurer på hvor bunnen er..?

Wooooow for et løft i dag, hva skjer ? 💰😇

Her fortsetter lastingen 👍

Freser videre opp 👍🥂💰
Mr Jinx
27.11.2023 kl 11:11 7451

Eller ned.
Litt typisk Mandag. Nordover i morgen satser vi på!

Vi henger godt bak AGAS, var ikke BWLPG betydelig foran tidligere i kurs og kursmålene er høyere? Utviklingen burde ikke være slik, vet det er betalt utbytter, men det gjør AGAS også.
Mr Jinx
27.11.2023 kl 12:21 7707

Etter "blokksalget" i sommer tror jeg noen fikk litt kalde føtter.
Mye ned i dag synes jeg. Litt merkelig. Panamatrøbbel gir høyere inntjening.

Jeg finner også dette noe merkelig. Før blokksalget lå AGAS 15-20% lavere i kurs. Vi får vente å se etterhvert.

Ser ut som vi nærmer oss en samkjøring nå, men ikke helt av de årsaker vi ønsker oss😅

Hva tenker folk om «bunn» i år, risikerer kursen å falle under 150? Veldig volatilt for tiden, mulig noen benyttet sjansen til å gevinstsikre på over 160 igjen nå sist, eller hva er grunn til nedgangen i dag?
Er det ikke rart om Avance Gas påvirker BW slik når Q3 resultatene ble forskjellige?



BW LPG Q3: While Waiting For Rainfall, It's Raining Dividends
Nov. 26, 2023 9:20 AM ETBW LPG Limited (BWLLF)AVACF, LPG12 Comments

In an exceptional market for VLGC shipping, BW LPG is fundamentally a solid company with great dividend capacity.
Shipyard capacity and asset prices prevent excess tonnage from being added to the market.
Short term, the market fundamentals are excellent due to the Panama Canal traffic jam; long term, ton-mile demand is likely to remain high.
LPG cylinder"s valve
The recently announced capacity restrictions in the Panama Canal have done more than any other factor to reduce effective fleet supply worldwide

NorGal/iStock via Getty Images

Investment thesis
Following its Q2 earnings, which I covered in a previous article, BW LPG (OTCPK:BWLLF, OTCPK:BWLLY) has reported even more substantial Q3 earnings. The main points supporting the thesis - low leverage, an excellent management track record, the world's largest fleet of modern dual-fuel ships, and favorable market dynamics - have been strengthened since the previous quarter. The main reason was, of course, the Panama Canal traffic jam.

It is awash in cash, has very low leverage, has an excellent management track record, and has the world's largest fleet of modern dual-fuel ships. For Q3, it declared a $0.80/sh dividend, bringing its YTD dividend to $2.56. Based on a share price of $14, its annualized yield is about 24%. Its previously reported US listing is proceeding as planned and will give the company access to a much larger investor base.

The VLGC freight sector's fundamentals are excellent and have been for some time. The Panama Canal is set to operate at reduced capacity. With VLGCs at the back of the line, many shipowners will have to re-route around the Cape or Suez, increasing sailing distances by 50 percent. Given these market factors and strong fundamentals, its ability to generate dividends is unprecedented.

Its upcoming dual listing in the U.S. will likely increase liquidity and reduce currency risk (alleviating investors of the NOK risk).

Finally, the long-term fundamentals of the LPG market support VLGC shipping: large production capacity in the U.S. and demand in the Far East.

Introduction to BW LPG and recent events
BW LPG is perhaps the largest owner-operator of VLGCs in the world, controlling 45 ships, of which 32 are owned. It has one of the largest dual-fuel fleet in the world, totaling 17 ships.

On Oct 2, Kristian Sorensen assumed the CEO role in what appeared to be an orderly transition following former CEO Anders Onarheim's announcement that he would step down after September 2023. No official reason was given, and Mr. Onarheim has since worked as chairman of a few Norwegian microcaps. He has retired after four successful years at BW LPG. Kristian Sorensen joined BW LPG in late 2022 after leaving the CEO role at peer Avance Gas in what seems to have been preparation for a future CEO role at BW LPG.

BW LPG CEO Kristian Sorensen was interviewed by the Norwegian financial newspaper Finansavisen (in Norwegian) on Nov 16 concerning BW LPG's Q3 release. Due to the high asset prices, the company is struggling to find good growth opportunities. At this time, Mr. Sorensen said that paying dividends is the best option for shareholders. It has begun looking into investing in other parts of the value chain, such as land terminals.

Its parent company, BW Group Limited, caused a short-term stock crash after block-selling 8.4 million shares on Oct 3 at $ (NOK 120/sh). For comparison, BW LPG closed at NOK 132.20. Post-sale, it owns about 34 percent of BW LPG. BW Group Limited cited a wish to increase liquidity in the stock and rebalance its portfolio of group companies as the reasons for completing the sale.

Change to Dividend Policy: "Core Shipping"
After BW LPG bought Vilma LPG last year and started growing its trading division, BW Product Services, its relative importance has increased. In July, its Product Services division reported a $32 million "timing effect" loss. Necessities following from IFRS aside, all of this amounts to reduced transparency in its dividend policy, which makes me glad that BW LPG has clarified its dividend policy.

In the future, its shipping division's net profit after tax and net leverage ratio will form the basis. Further, the dividend payout will consider "BW Product Services’ performance; Our capital expenditure plans; and All financing requirements, financial flexibility, and anticipated cash flows of the business."

Upcoming U.S. Listing (Dual Listing)
The company stated, "The work towards the announced dual listing in the US is on plan, with an expected listing in Q2 2024" in its Q3 earnings presentation. The company will remain listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange and has not announced plans to delist from the OSE.

While giving the company access to a more extensive investor base, the dual listing will alleviate current and prospective investors of the NOK currency risk. The value of the NOK has been sliding for years, and its volatility has increased in later years. In the interview mentioned above, Mr. Sorensen also stated that the company has received complaints about its currency risk related to NOK.

Fundamentals
In this section, BW LPG will be compared to its two main peers, Avance Gas (OTCPK:AVACF) and Dorian LPG (LPG). As in my previous analysis, the figures show that BW LPG remains the undervalued, relatively speaking, company of the three.

P/B and P/E
Dorian LPG and Avance have gone from a P/B of less than 1 in a year to about 2. BW LPG comes in somewhat lower, at 1.3. While Avance has the youngest fleet, Dorian's and BW's ships are not "old."

Chart
Data by YCharts
EV/EBITDA
Judging by this metric, Avance Gas has become relatively expensive during the past quarter. Dorian and BW LPG's figures have remained relatively flat during 2023, meaning that their EBITDA has increased along with their enterprise value.

Chart
Data by YCharts
Debt to EBITDA
BW LPG has operated with significantly lower debt levels than its two peers for some time. While all three have deleveraged further during the past year, BW has reached record low levels.

Chart
Data by YCharts
Total Return Level and Dividend Yield
Comparing the three companies by Total Return Level and Dividend Yield yields an exciting picture. Dorian LPG has recently outperformed in total return, but the rapid price appreciation seen for both Dorian LPG and Avance Gas has sent their dividend yields somewhat down. Again, we see that both Dorian and Avance appear to attract more investor attention than BW LPG.

Chart
Data by YCharts
Valuation
Its peer, Dorian LPG, surged 10 percent after Jefferies issued a buy recommendation on November 20. Setting a $50 price target, Jefferies reported, according to the SA article,

"The recent Panama Canal restrictions, however, change the outlook considerably, tightening VLGC capacity and raising both spot and forward charter rates. The sector is already underpinned by strong US liquids export growth, which is likely to continue next year (..) We are raising our VLGC rate forecast to $75,000/day for 2024, up from $45,000/day.

In a previous analysis, I calculated a valuation of NOK 150 (USD 14) for BW LPG stock. Since then, the Panama Canal's capacity has declined steeply, effectively reducing the world fleet by increasing sailing distances by up to 50 percent. In addition, shipyards are still booked well into 2026 and 2027, preventing other players from adding capacity to the market. In the interview with the newspaper mentioned above, Mr. Sorensen even said that BW LPG is considering investing in other parts of the value chain as it currently cannot find profitable growth opportunities. Under current market conditions, BW LPG is worth well above USD 14. With its dividend capacity at an all-time high, it looks like a promising case.

Market Outlook
Global Fossil Fuel Demand to Continue, Says EIA Projection
In its International Energy Outlook 2023, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that the world will still demand significant quantities of natural gas and liquids in 2050 across all of its scenarios:

World 2050 energy demand mix
World 2050 energy demand mix (IEA, International Energy Outlook 2023)

Further, it says, "[g]rowth in natural gas consumption is widely distributed regionally, but it is most notable in India, the Other Asia-Pacific region, China, Africa, Russia, the Middle East, and the Other Americas region." The takeaway from this analysis is that the world will still demand natural gas and liquids, and the most significant demand is coming from regions far away from what is currently the world's largest exporter of natural gas, the U.S.

US Exports
In the same interview mentioned above, Mr. Sorensen commented that he sees the LPG market as a supply-driven market, as LPG is a byproduct of oil and gas production. Domestic LPG consumption in the U.S. remains flat, meaning published production and inventory levels provide export transparency.

In its Q3 presentation, BW LPG offers this illustration:

Seaborne LPG exports and imports by region
Seaborne LPG exports and imports by region (BW LPG Q3 2023 presentation)

According to these graphs - of which data was sourced from IHS and BW LPG's research - North America has increased its exports significantly in the past year, while China and India have increased imports. The Middle East needs to increase its production to match the increased demand of China and India. This is an excellent combination for shippers such as BW LPG because this dynamic increases ton-mile demand.

The Panama Canal Shows No Signs of Returning to Full Capacity
The Canal's capacity issues this year have been widely published. Starting in February 2024, the Canal will allow just 18 ships
Mr Jinx
29.11.2023 kl 00:35 7013

Vel og bra dette. De fleste er enige om at utsiktene er lyse. Men noen undrer seg nok om fallet de siste dagene. Alle gass- transportøree faller. Siste var vel Dorian i kveld, med over 4 %. Er dette en korreksjon, eller er det noe annet på gang? Opec?


Vanskelig å se at noe fundamentalt har endret seg siden Q3 rapportering.
Kristian Sørensen i FA for noen dager siden:
«USA -eksporten ser fundamentalt sterk ut … sterkt signal for videre vekst i produksjon og eksport … uforutsette hendelser vil ikke endre den fundamentale styrken i markedet»
Svakhet i aksjekursen de siste dagene: Kombinasjon av gevinstsikring, svakere dollar og usikkerhet rundt avgjørelsen til OPEC?


omans
29.11.2023 kl 08:51 6849

Kurser går ikke bare opp, etter at de har gått opp kan de gå noe tilbake/ned. Om noe har gått for mye opp på kort tid, kan det falle tilbake og kjøre seg litt fast for en periode, men det er jo aksjen. Blokksalget som skjedde var helt utenfor selskapet og kursutslaga var av psykologisk karakter, derfor rask innhenting og opp mot 170-185 område test. Nå må kurs bli ferdig nedi her på 150 tall, jeg ser et Bull flagg så langt i en meget sterk oppadgående trend. Dersom 150 støtten holder nå får man ikke ny lave I Bull flagget som kan signalisere et brudd ut/opp neste.

Har man et langsiktig perspektiv på investering i BW LPG så mener jeg at nyheter som dette, at selskapet tar grep for å sikre seg en del av infrastrukturen for LPG i India, er meget gode.
Ikke utenkelig at neste trekk kan være å investere i virksomhet på land i USA.


Skitur
30.11.2023 kl 20:02 6352

Noen som kan forklare omsetningen på sluttauksjonen i dag som var på over ca 550 000 aksjer, over halvparten av omsetningen i dag.

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): ABG Sundal Collier oppjusterer sitt kursmål på BW LPG til 221 kroner, fra 188 kroner, og gjentar kjøpsanbefaling.

Det fremgår av en sektorrapport fredag.

Meglerhuset oppjusterer samtidig kursmålet på Avance Gas til 216 kroner, fra 146 kroner, og gjentar kjøpsanbefaling.

"Produksjonsveksten for amerikansk LPG er sterkere enn forventet, noe som gjør nybyggordreboken for 2024-2026 "for lav". Vi forventer derfor fortsatt høye LPG-fraktrater inn i 2024-2025", skriver meglerhuset.

Kjeltringer, de kjørte kursen nede til 149kr uten substans så de kan kjøpe selv. Nå kom de med oppgraderinger. Nesten sikkert på at kursen står 275kr eller mer fra 15 des når folk får utbytte og skal kjøpe mer. Kriminelt.

Finansavisen idag!

BW LPG/AVANCE GAS: ABG Sundal Collier løfter kursmålet i BW LPG fra 188 kroner til 221 kroner. Kursmålet i Avance Gas løftes fra 146 kroner til 216 kroner.

Pareto Securities høyner kursmål for BW LPG til 207 kroner (203), gjentar kjøp

Panama Canal disruption could linger into 2025, warns Clarksons’ Steve Gordon

No significant easing of transit restrictions any time soon, with LPG ships bearing the brunt of disruption

4 December 2023 11:27 GMT UPDATED 4 December 2023 11:27 GMT
By Gary Dixon in London

Clarksons Research believes the huge disruption caused by transit restrictions at the Panama Canal will linger for some time yet.

Crossings will be cut to 18 per day from February, 50% of the usual number, due to low water levels caused by drought.

Steve Gordon, managing director of Clarksons Research, said: “Transit restrictions appear likely to remain in place for some time to come, with the rainy season in Panama falling from May to December.”

The months with the greatest average rainfall are October and November, he explained.

This suggests restrictions “may not be significantly eased until the second half of 2024 or later”, the researcher added.

LPG vessels will be the most affected, due to the importance of the waterway for major trade routes and the vessels’ lack of priority in booking systems, Gordon believes.

VLGCs are already avoiding the canal to route via the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope.

This is hugely increasing voyage lengths and likely to boost rates into next year, Clarksons Research forecasts.

“There will also be an impact on overall freight costs associated with these longer voyages, potentially impacting arbitrage economics,” Gordon said.

The LNG carrier sector may also see some market upside as the lower availability of slots leads to re-routing of US to Asia trades to longer-haul voyages, he added.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/panama-canal-disruption-could-linger-into-2025-warns-clarksons-steve-gordon/2-1-1564975
Granly
04.12.2023 kl 18:14 5309

avsnitt fra artikkel, med link under:

Vi mener at skipsmegleranslagene er for lave i dag og vår forventede NAV om et års tid er 216 kroner i Avance og 221 kroner i BW LPG. Dette er også våre kursmål på aksjene, som begge er om lag 40 prosent høyere enn dagens børskurser.

https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2023/12/04/8067240/spar-avance-gas-og-bw-lpg-opp-40-prosent
omans
04.12.2023 kl 18:34 5292

I pose og sekk med denne aksjen, både potensiell kursoppgang og fete utbytter.

Husker forrige gang Avance ble tradet i området 130-150 kroner og den ble anbefalt pga utbytter etc, men det ble kortvarig glede den gangen og det fulgte kurskollaps. Etter 7 magre følger det 7 fete år som det heter...Kan gå troll i ord.
Redigert 04.12.2023 kl 18:46 Du må logge inn for å svare