Zena - høydepunkter fra IC i dag 28.9.2022


Kan vi fortløpende legge ut høydepunkter fra de ulike operasjonene og nye potensielle avtaler?

Fint du laget denne tråden, var i gang selv med å lage en.
olje
28.09.2022 kl 09:13 3555

ligger presentasjonen ute??

Var tynt med høydepunkter 😂

Kanskje en tråd med , brutte løfter, løse høner etc. ?
Mdg1
28.09.2022 kl 11:31 3366

Var det bare lavdepunkter?

var det ikke bedre at lave en tråd med lav punkter måske, ville vist være mere passende sådan som aktien dumpes

Når vi ned under 10 øren igen allerede idag😂😂😂😂😂😂?……
Redigert 28.09.2022 kl 11:52 Du må logge inn for å svare
BMU
28.09.2022 kl 11:56 3278

O. o .o. Lord haw long we haw to wayt for sight for enlighten to com.
jantt
28.09.2022 kl 12:22 3166

Var der noget konkret på IC i dag eller var det bare håb ?

INgen bullets punkter heller... Hmmmm

Here is my write-up from the conference call today. It was done in real-time so these are not Andrea's exact words, but the sentiment is correct. If they put up the ICC on the website I will try to replace this with an actual transcript later.

Zenith Energy - September 28th Investor Conference Call

Apologies for the two delays in the conference as the company was hoping to deliver the news that you would expect about the company.

Zenith has Italy, Tunisia and Congo and now Benin.

Italy has been the big surprise of the year because of the war in Ukraine and the increase in the gas prices. This has been unfortunate for families but has brought reward for producers. In the previous years Italy was a few words at the ends of the presentation and now it is first as it is producing big profits because the costs are fixed but the gas prices have gone up.

We will continue our campaign of revamping existing fields in our portfolio and also intend to make acquisitions of other companies who do not want to go through the bureaucracy of getting the permission to produce despite the high gas prices. This will take time and you will have to give us if this takes longer than you expect but these are the rules of the game.,

Except some states in the USA ie Texas where rules are very lax all other countries have very bureaucratic rules of production as gas is regarded as a very political asset and it is monitored and taxed by great attention by governments and finally because of the ecological impact of oil and gas production.

In the balance sheet of a junior certain delays are much more evident than on the balance sheet of a major.

There has been a lot of complaints about timescales slipping especially in Congo but we work 24-7 and nobody else in Congo is going quicker. When we get the license we will be the only independent OPERATOR in Congo and this shows that this is difficult.

In Tunisia we have activity in four fields. Tunisia has been going through some political turmoil with a new constitution and elections in December. This is positive for us but the activity in the political scene has brought delays in the bureaucracy as new oil chiefs are appointed after this upheaval.

Benin is a country I first visited in 1979 and the attitude of the people and the govt is very different from their neighbours in Nigeria. Benin produced oil for 15 years and then stopped it. The port in the main city or Port Anu?) is set up to export oil. CNPC is building a very important pipeline bringing oil from Niger bringing oil down to an oil terminal that is being built and out asset is just 1km from this terminal (or pipeline – I am not sure). This has focused the attention of the govt on oil again. We have been able by moving quickly to discuss and participate an offer for the Seme field. We are confident that we will get the license due to a small amount of competitors going for this field. Seme is the number 1 field in the country and we are confident that this deal can be closed rapidly due to a number of lucky factors as well as the fact that the speed of this transaction will be quicker. Regionally, Benin is quite prompt in giving answers and Niger the neighbour has a policy that govt decisions on things like this should be made in 90 days. We are confident that this will be resolved swiftly to our satisfaction.

Congo is where we have Tilapia which is an asset of great potential. I can say (and I know that I have said it before) that we are very convinced that we are near the end of this journey and we will have the operatorship and then can complete the well.

There are also other locations where we are in advanced negotiations. Our policy is to have a diversified portfolio of as many as possible producing fields that do not require heavy capex. We want to operate in countries that are friendly to oil companies in their political outlook.

Questions
1. How much development opportunity and how much more gas can be produced?


The other operators in Italy are mainly from Canda US and GB. They liked the advantageous fiscal setup and they produced a lot of license in the last 10 years. We purchased our fields for a negative consideration (they paid us) when we bought to portfolio of Mediterranean oil and gas in 2012. We almost bought the assets of Coro Oil & Gas but due to political problems then this did not happen due to the anti-fossil fuel lobby. Now they have all realised that they were wrong and there is a lack of energy availability. The invasion of Ukraine caused the gas price to rise because of sanctions etc and this has pushed the price very high in Italy and we a re now making a lot of money.


The situation politically is that we can reopen some of our gas fields. We just need the approvals which takes time but with families and businesses being affected by high oil prices the govt is now looking at increasing Italian gas production . We are waiting for the new govt to be appointed but we are confident that approvals will be received once this is in place. It is just a matter of how long.


Our assets when brough back on line would do 9,000 cubic meters of additional production today and if this is re-opened it could earn another €1 million per annum.


We believe that some existing gas entities in Italy will get rid of their assets because of the financial guarantees required and need a strong balance sheet and we expect certain opportunities to by foreign owned assets will take place. So we will revamp our existing assets and will get approval for this and we will buy addition assets.



2. When does the company plan to drill a second well in Torrentocino?

This has very strong potential with a second well as the current well is lateral to the reservoir and theories the potential to drill a second well directly into the main reservoir but this will be a more substantial investment and we do not have a date for it yet?



Congo

1. What is the state of play with eh SNPC debt and when does the company expect to receive the money?

Congo has a very large debt (mainly to CNPC). Many billions. Our debt is commercial and will not be renegotiated when the IMF loans there are renegotiated. It willl be after the Tilapia drill in done and producing that we are likely to get payment then in full plus interest



2. Legal case vs SMP – what is the update on this?

Here we have much better news. We inherited this legal claim when we acquired AAOG. While preparing the case on the claim we have made a very robust case and the Parisian legal team is very confident that it will be successful. There is always an element of doubt on the courts decision but we are confident that we will win.


3. What progress has been made in Tilapia since the last conference call in Feb 2022?

We have had antagonism with the ministry before the change of minister. The new minister has re-examined the company and has come to appreciate our technical confidence and financial strength. We are very confident in the professionalism and competence of the new ministry and I am very confident that we will soon have our license renewed.


Nigeria

1. OML141 – what is the state of play? Is this still alive after the legal issues are over?

Zenth are very active in looking at trying to acquire new deals. However, global bureaucracies can be slow which creates a sense amongst shareholders that we start deals and do not finish them. However, in Nigeria we have been wise. It was a good opportunity, but the legal case between NHNL and ADM could take years to be solved and we do not want to be involved in this so we have dropped this opportunity as we do not want to get embroiled in a case that could be endless. It has been abandoned. However, Nigeria is bordering with Benin so all the international suppliers that work in Nigeria are easily available to provide services in Benin – especially as production in Nigeria is not going well.


New Acquisitions

1. Are we looking at any further major African acquisitions?

If we see a proposal for a 300 bopd acquisition we are not interested unless it has the potential to be much bigger (ie no more Tunisia’s). We believe that a major acquisition will come in the next quarter. Will this leave us with too many assets? We will look into taking partners and farm-outs to minimise our management and financial commitments. We have a significant African management team (it has increased threefold) including expats etc. This allows us to look at things more cheaply than flying out people from London to do analysis.


Financials
1. Is there any progress in the idea of the share buy-back program. Are you still considering this?

We are still looking at it but it depends on the availability of cash. I believe tremendously in the future of the company and I will buy more shares when it is permitted but it is difficult for me to find a legal window to do this because of all the asset purchases etc. We are looking as well for some other institutional investors to add to our existing two.

2. Since Zenith have not issued shares in the last year then has the bond market helped this?

With respect to eh bond market we are in the continental Europe market and this is helped by our recent rating increase. We believe that we will get another rating increase before the end of the year.


Benin
1. What Is the timescale for the Seme field offer being accepted?

I have already mentioned about Niger’s 90 day government response policy.. This is thought to be a good idea by Benin and they are aiming to make decisions in the same timescale or even quicker. We are confident that this will be approved quickly.


2. How long before Benin could start reproduction and how much?

6- 8 months from the first day of operation. Money not sure but there is the community of contractors in Nigeria who have a very low level of new business and there is a willingness to support us with supplier credit which will reduce our need for capital.


3. How does Zenith think that it can improve the lives of local communities and improve the lives of people in Benin?

Benin will be one of the gems in our crown and we will be the biggest operator in the country (prime operator) and we will take this seriously and look to be very upstanding on our SER. We have a history of helping the countries that we have worked in like buying respirators during covid period in Tunisa and we have also sponsored the football team there as it is a major local


Forgive us for the delays which are not our delays but we are working very hard to try and achieve all of the goals that we have promised investors.
jantt
28.09.2022 kl 12:40 3117

Jeg har skrevet til Zenith og spurt hvad meningen var med IC når der intet konkret nyt var.
De svarer nok ikke

Like I said in my previous post, it is clear that they had hoped to get Tilapia news out before they did the ICC. It sounds like it is close. We also got new information on another acquisition coming in Q4 and further details on the Benin timescales.

At first listen the call was a bit underwhelming but after I read through my notes I think that there was a lot of very positive information there and the building the company towards becoming a mid-tier producer continues with more bricks in place.
Gullit
28.09.2022 kl 13:12 3556

Virkelig mye som skjer på en gang no. Bare en av disse 3 store kan bli en game changer. Ser ikke mange andre aksjer som potensielt kan ta av som denne..
C-Eiken
28.09.2022 kl 13:15 3535

Det sagde han jo netop i starten af IC. At man havde forventet nogle nyheder inden man kunne have talt om, men at disse er udskudt og stadig venter "lige rundt og hjørnet"
jantt
28.09.2022 kl 13:21 3499

jo men man skal ikke udsætte IC fordi man venter nyt når man ikke ved det.
Det skader kursen og dermed aktionærerne. Dårligt

I prefer that they delayed it. At least now we are able to have an update on Benin timescales and information that Tilapia is very close instead of just talking about the annual accounts which is what would have happened if it had been on the original August date.

The fact that they delayed the conference call for over a month must have meant that they thought that they would get Tilapia done which now indicates to me that it is really close to being finished. Obviously, I am annoyed that they haven’t yet announced T2 as this is the acquisition that will send the share price flying but there was still a lot of positive information in that Conference call if you ask me.

Endelig en IC der jeg sitter med en god følelse i etterkant. Tidligere har det bare vært "in due course" blablabla. Tonen var betydelig endret vedrørende congo/tlp2.

Bare stiller spørsmål til hvorfor man sier høydepunkter når markedet helt tydelig viser at det ikke blir sett på som noe høydepunkt?

I posted this on the other thread earlier but it is probably better to go here:

Overview form the September 28th Conference Call

1. Zenith clearly delayed the conference call in the hope that they would have been able to announced Tilapia before the call happened. This has obviously not been the case in the end but they feel that the final granting of the license is close. Once this closes they will be the only independent foreign operator in Congo.


2. They are negotiating another African asset which they should announce in Q4 this year. They are also looking at acquiring new assets in Italy as well as developing the existing assets. They think that they could make an additional €1 million Euros per annum from working over their existing assets in Italy.


3. Any new assets that they buy will not be small producers. The days of buying Tunisian assets that produce 300 bopd are over unless that is what they are producing now but they can produce much more after work (presumably in the 2,000 bopd region such as Benin.


4. Once they acquire their next African assets they will be looking for farm-in partners on all of the African assets to share the costs.


5. Benin – they expect this to be approved in less than 90 days. Once they have the license they think that it will be 6-8 months until production is restated.


6. Nigeria and OML141 is dead – they are no longer interested.


7. Share buy-back is still under consideration but it will depend on how much cash the operations generate. Andrea wants to buy more shares as soon as he is able but with the acquisitions that they are currently undertaking he needs to wait for a legal window to do so.


8. They expect the bond rating to go up again before the end of the year.
Gullit
28.09.2022 kl 14:11 3293

Kan vel så ende i grønt, slett ikke no stort nedsalg i dag. Så kan man kose seg den dagen meldinger ligger klar

Kjøpte selv ca. 300k til for 1-2 timer siden.

Det kan selvsagt ende i grønt, slett ikke noe stort nedsalg, slett ikke noe stort kjøp. Min observasjon er vel egentlig bare at om denne IC'en hadde levert så gode nyheter så hadde vel kjøpene sannsynligvis vært større og fler. Markedet reagerer ikke noe spesielt på denne IC'en. Så kan man selvsagt si at om de får Tilapia eller Benin over målstreken så går aksjekursen oppover. Det er vel de fleste enige i, det er jo dog en smule komisk at flere her inne omtrent har gitt garantier på at Tilapia 2 kommer før IC noe som åpenbart ikke materialiserte seg. At selskapet kan bli bra om de får lisensene er jo en selvfølge. Men jeg tror nok mange burde endre ordlyden fra NÅR de får lisensene til OM de får lisensene. For uansett hvor mye enkelte her mener at dette er 100% sikkert så er det engang slik at de finnes ingen garantier for at lisensene kommer.
Viking_I
28.09.2022 kl 15:53 3053

As AC told at starting of IC postpone for Tilapia 2 news but i can say it is on verge, but haven't heard much about how Tunisia production increase to 1000 bopd with timeline.
Redigert 28.09.2022 kl 15:56 Du må logge inn for å svare

Yes, but if I remember correctly you where 100% sure of Tilapia before IC. It did not materialize, I think also you need to acknowledge that there is no such thing as zero percent risk. Therefore I hope that in the future you could maybe say that you believe that Tilapia most likely will happen, but saying something is 100% sure is just wrong and I hope you learned that lesson today :)

Pessimist1. Enig. Det er aldri en garanti for noe som helst, når som helst. Det gjelder ikke bare land som Congo i Afrika, men også I-land som Canada.

For meg var denne IC positiv.
Jeg fikk selv inntrykket etter IC at tlp2 kommer snart (la oss si f.eks innen nyttår). Og at det mangler kun 1-2 siste formaliteter (som har blitt utsatt). Det er min tanke og inntrykk etter det mr. Itoua sa i intervjuet som ble publisert i går, og det AC sa i dag under IC. Mr. Itoua sa også i intervjuet at Congo fremover (i 2023) kommer til å øke produksjonen betraktelig. Så myndighetene i Congo er nok klare for å ferdigstille/lovbefeste PSA'er i 2022!
Tok da en avgjørelse på å kjøpe litt mer nå som aksjen falt i kurs. Får se om jeg rekker eller velger å kjøpe ytterligere.
Hvis tlp2 blir signert er det noen som sier kursen kan kanskje nærme seg 20øre, andre sier godt over 1,5kr basert på teoretiske tall. Vi kommer mest sannsynlig til å se en endring fra øretrilling med oss små-aksjonærer, til større haier som skal inn/ut. Kommer til å bli en stor endring på volumet, slik jeg ser for meg utviklingen ved "done deal".
Men vi vet heller aldri nå som markedet generelt har fått seg en trøkk siste mnd, og ev. får videre trøkk.. Mulig potensialet vi kunne fått for 3mnd har blitt dempet.
På den andre siden har zenith holdt seg bra i kurs foreløpig, med dette børsklimaet + oljepris som har falt fra rundt 120dollar i sommer til rundt 80dollar nå.

Wild-guess:
Ved "done deal" tlp2, kanskje kursen går raskt til 30-40øre, så over 8 uker bygger seg oppunder 80-90-100øre (hvis børsklimaet ikke er for surt + hvis vi i tillegg har fått tilslag for budet på Seme block1, i løpet av de 8 ukene. Altså; flere positive nyheter som bygger oppunder utviklingen).

(jeg har aksjer, og ikke ment som haussing. Er kun en amatør, med dårlig glasskule)

Jeg er forsåvidt enig med deg i at ting virker nærme i Congo. Nærmere enn noen gang, jeg må jo nesten bare dra frem at det i November 2021 bare var et pennestrøk unna, nå står vi her 10 måneder senere bare et pennestrøk unna!

Personlig tror jeg sannsynligheten for at de drar i land Tilapia er over 50%. Det er dog ikke noe jeg tørr å legge for mye vekt på. Mitt poeng er bare at jeg tror ikke denne haussingen til Andrea er spesielt bra. Nå var vi et pennestrøk unna for 10 måneder siden, nå er vi et halvt pennestrøk unna? Tror du skjønner hvor jeg vil hen. Tilitten til selskapet er tynnslitt, dette av den helt enkle grunnen at de guider veldig mye rart men leverer sjelden på det. Det er noe å bomme etpar ganger på guiding men Zenith er desverre notorisk på dette.

Helt enig i at selskapet er "billig" nå basert på fundamental analyse. Jeg er også enig i at selskapet har veldig gode sjanser for reprising OM de får Bening/Tilapia. Men dette er jeg noe usikker på blir ordnet før årsskiftet. Tror nok man fort må belage seg på å vente til neste år før noe skjer.

Minner også om at de har 2 børsdager på å melde om civil work på ROB-3 om de skal følge egen guiding.

At Zenith ikke har holdt seg bra selv om oljeprisen går nedover er ikke noe jeg ville vektlagt nevneverdig. Selskapet har da virkelig ikke gått opp på stigende oljepris heller.
Frodon
28.09.2022 kl 17:45 2803

Kanskje det hadde vært bedre om de ikke utsatte IC og hadde sagt at de venter på noe stort 😅

Pessimist1.

Virker nesten som AC ikke har fulgt med i timen, eller om det har vært en feil guiding fra tidligere minister(?).
Hvis vi har i bakhodet at det har "ligget klart for et pennestrøk" i 1-1,5år;
Siste 3-4mnd har det blitt gjennomført MYE hos myndighetene (senatet, nasjonalforsamlingen o.l), og lagt til rette for PSA/oljeselskaper/oljeproduksjon i Congo.
Virker som Congo og mr. Itoua i spissen er mer fremoverlent, og gir uttrykk for at fra starten av 2023 og videre, skal produksjon betraktelig opp for Congo.
Mange ulike tegn siste 6mnd som tilsier at noe skjer i Congo og endelig produksjon for lisenser.
+ AC tydeligvis har blitt guidet tidligere i sommer at "done deal" kom innnen flørst august, så starten av september, og så slutten av september.
+ Endring av tonen hos AC under dagens IC(tidligere gjennom 1,5år; "in due course"): «News you expected is soon to be acheived», «Know i have said it before, but im now convinced we will come to an end of this journey very soon», «Very confident", "Very pleased with the new minister".
+ Intervjuet av mr. Itoua som ble publisert i går glir inn som hånd i hanske med utviklingen siste tiden. Hvis vi tar det han sa som god fisk, er PSA signert og da venter vi på siste steg (skal vel lovfestes til slutt?).
+ Volumøkningen i slutten av august (noen har fått informasjon). Passer godt inn med det Itoua sa i intervjuet.

Siste 1-1,5år har jeg stilt mange spørsmål om myndighetene har tatt en 180grader, og på en eller annen måte satset på et større/mer solid selskap som allerede produserer i Congo. Det har vært en stor bekymring. Men den bekymringen er nesten borte for min del nå (kan dog alltid skje noe..).

Det som blir spennende nå er betingelsene i PSA'n, og NÅR den kommer(litt offensivt utspill fra min side der). 60% til Zenith? 5,7$mill? Osv.
Jeg har stor tro på før nyttår, og kanskje innen 1mnd(med siste 1,5 år i bakhodet). Spørs når myndighetene får ut fingen på målstreken.
Kan utsettelsen ved forrige IC-dato være pga. skiftet av ministrerer i slutten av september(Mr. Itoua fikk forlenget sitt verv)?

Verdi: selskapet er som du sier, fundamentalt underpriset. Mye som tilsier at reelle markedsverdi er på dagens nivå (og høyere). Men allikevel ved nedgang på børsen/markedet/oljepris + småaksjonærer i et selskap uten volum... går fort litt nedover hvis det er/har vært sirup i lang tid som nå.

Må si at Zenith Energy er et spennende case nå!
-Underpriset på dagens mcap / inntekter
-Lav gjeld
-Flere inntektsbringende bein å stå på
-Ikke spesielt store investeringer/kostnader å øke inntektene 2x
-Potensiell gullkalv 1: TLP2, som forhåpentigvis kommer en gang fra i dag til nyttår
-Videre utvikling av Tunisia
-Videre utvikling av Italia
-Potensiell gullkalv 2: Seme
-Potensiell gullkalv 3: Lisens utover TLP2?
-Potensiell gullkalv 4: Ytterligere acquisition
Redigert 28.09.2022 kl 19:07 Du må logge inn for å svare
Frodon
28.09.2022 kl 21:22 2458

Det jeg synes er litt synd, er at myndighetene i Congo ikke får ut fingrren. Olje priset passerte usd 70 pr fat sommeren 2021, forbi usd 90 i februar 2022, og var mellom usd 100-120 til juli 2022…fortsatt klarer ikke Congo å se de enorme inntektene de kunne fått. Blir det slik veien i Congo blir videre også, burde de heller glemme feltet og gå videre 😜 Må være vanvittig mye annet de heller kan bruke tiden sin på, som faktisk ønsker avtaler og tjene penger….mener jeg. Så kan jo en avtale i Congo enten bare komme etter hvert eller ikke bli noe av 😜

noen som har link til IC?
Hektor
28.09.2022 kl 23:30 2201

Fikk ikke anledning til IC i dag. Er kanskje ikke denne du tenker på, men legger den ut ihvertfall:
https://wp-zenith-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/09/ZENITH-OCT-22-PDF.pdf

Tenkte ikke på den men ser at den presentasjon er ny og oppdatert med Benini, den ny for meg også så det blir fin oppdatering 👍 Takk for deling Hektor
Lyd utgave av IC dukker opp nok snart ett eller annen sted

Den kommer nå den kommer. Pluttselig ligger meldingen der.en dag. Det er bare å slappe av nå. AC henger nok på prosessen det han kan.Uansett så er det masse gode prosesser under materialisering fremover. En dag før jul 08.30 ligger nok meldingen der. Så.det kan være greit å være inne.
Redigert 29.09.2022 kl 08:21 Du må logge inn for å svare
Viking_I
29.09.2022 kl 08:44 1828

i again saying with determinations that PSC is already signed and it is in parliament for rectification with other deals presented in August 1st week. Only thing reaming is final sign of president on Law.
Basis for saying it
1) procedure of deal PAC - PSC signature- Parliament approval - Law sign by President
2) AC agree IC postponed two times due to Tilapia II (he is confident because he knows procedure and final step before announcement)
3) Congolese Hydrocarbon minister statement on 2nd Sep conference
4) Congolese Hydrocarbon minister tweets in August.

Vi må da håbe den gori..a snart får sat den underskrift, med den hastighed aktien dumpes er der snart ikke mere værdi i selskabet desværre,

And there is a strong chance you might be correct in that! That however is far from 100% sure, because if this was 100% sure the SP would be something entierly else you know it and I know it. That being said there is of course a strong possibility that there are only minor details left for Tilapia, but this was also the case 10 months ago in November. My point being that it is not 100% or 99% sure that Tilapia will be over the line there is no basis for saying that.
jantt
29.09.2022 kl 09:38 1671

kursen fortsætter ned med stor fart. Tak AC for intet. Ren amatøragtigt med IC
Svartsyn
29.09.2022 kl 10:11 1574

Litt forklaring på hva som skjer er kanskje på sin plass.
Dette er min teori etter å ha vært i denne aksjen i over 3 år.
Kjært barn har mange navn, maskinen,roboten, syndikatet ,banken eller gutteklubben..Hva navnet er eller hvem det er har eg sluttet å kaste bort tid på.
Det de enkelt gjør er å "styre" kursen dit de ønsker,det er ganske enkelt med "penny-stocks".
Enkelt forklart de "styrer" kursen ned å prøver å fylle opp med "billige" aksjer som selges av nervøse,oppgitte eller leie aksje-eiere som kaster kortene/aksjene.
Aksjekursen blir så "kjørt opp igjen, og høstingen starter..

DE ER FORNØYDE MED 0,3 ØRE FORTJENESTE PR.AKSJE.

Dette er spillet......
Ha en flott dag alle som en...
Innlegget er skrevet for å gi noen litt bedre nerver.
Og "maskinen" fikk ikke fylt opp med mange aksjer igår etter ICen, det var positivt.
Glem dagskursen,og se litt lengre frem. Det kan bli lønnsomt. KAN......
Redigert 29.09.2022 kl 10:14 Du må logge inn for å svare