Forventninger til Q3

Gimleveien
PGS 05.10.2022 kl 08:47 1175

Hva er deres forventninger til Q3?

Cash flow, vi vet allerede at det blir sterkt, men om det kommer over 200 musd spørs. Om de passerer den grensen må overskytende gå til avdrag for nedbetaling av gjeld. Kan jo være at de gjør som de gjorde i q2, setter forfall på faktura i q4.

Kontrakt blir veldig spennende, det er her vi vel bør få bekreftet at trenden med høyere dagrater kommer til uttryk. Q2 var ikke et godt kvartal for kontrakt, det unnskyldte de seg med at skyltes mye streaming og tilliggende for oppdrag i Q3. Mitt estimat er 80-100 musd.
Late sales, mye usikkerhet knyttet til hvor vi havner og mye potensiale (Shell avtale, transfer fees). Mitt estimat er 30-60 musd.
Multiclient per-funding i Q2 rapporten står det i notene at de estimerer ca. 30 musd i inntekter. Mitt estimat er at vi skal noe høyere, kanskje opp i mot 50 musd.
Kontur
05.10.2022 kl 11:07 969




PGS
QUARTERLY PREVIEW¬ ¬|¬ ¬5 OCT¬ ¬2022


CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL REPORT


Another strong quarter ahead
We expect another strong quarter for PGS and make minor adjustments to our estimates ahead of the quarter. Overall, we remain confident in the long-term story as power is shifting towards seismic vessel owners amid a tight supply side with both key suppliers showing discipline, while high near-term cash flow is supportive for the upcoming refinancing. BUY, TP NOK 12.

Increase late sales to reflect strong momentum and transfer fees
We increase our Q3 late sales estimate slightly to USD 75m (USD 65m), up ~200% y/y and the highest in a decade (for Q3). This reflects higher transfer fees trough the Azule JV (one of its largest YTD) and the Shell contract (USD 20m+), underlining that our previous estimate already reflected higher than normal transfer fees. We also remain confident in “underlying” Q3 late sales based a bullish mood at our conference where continuing improvement and higher interest in frontier data sets were highlighted.
Prefunding estimate reflects backlog as of Q2
Our prefunding estimate of USD 30m reflects the backlog as of Q2 which PGS indicates is relatively firm. There was some upside to the backlog for Q2 prefunding revenue, but we understand this was “special case”, hence we stick to our USD 30m estimate. Note that prefunding booking fluctuates significantly q/q due to IFRS reporting.
Higher contract allocation with slightly lower dayrates
Our vessel tracking implies contract/MC allocation of 70%/30% in Q3 vs. 63%/37% in Q2. We count a total utilization of 83% vs. our previous expectation of 90%. Nevertheless, a significant improvement from Q2 (65% utilization) as also indicated by the company. In sum, our contract revenue expectations are almost unchanged at USD 101m vs. USD 108m before. We have lowered our dayrate estimate slightly to USD 21’/streamer (from 23’) shifting source work to Q4 as Apollo commenced work in mid-Septemeber (lasting to 03 October) and Swift is indicated for more work in Q4. Still, our dayrate estimates represents an increase of 16% for the 12M rolling avg. y/y and 12% q/q.
Power shifting towards vessel owners, BUY TP NOK 12
As the upcycle unfolds, we continue to like the position of the vessel owners, noting that higher contract pricing also increases value of existing MC libraries. Shearwater controls 10 out of 11 “swing capacity vessels” (3D units with available streamers) and PGS the last one. We expect both companies to be very disciplined in contract pricing and reactivations, as PGS needs higher pricing to refinance its balance sheet while Shearwater has an IPO in the horizon. Overall, we believe in another strong quarter for PGS, and still find them reasonably well positioned to refinance ahead of the Q3’23 maturity on the back of high near-term cash flow. We reiterate BUY, TP NOK 12, reflecting 2023e EV/EBIT of 6.5x and P/E 5.4x.

Contact analyst(s)

Analyst(s):
Bård Rosef, +47 24 13 21 56, bard.rosef@paretosec.com

Ole Martin Rødland, +47 24 13 21 54, Ole.Martin.Rodland@paretosec.com


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Gimleveien
05.10.2022 kl 14:48 799

Enig det de skriver om prefunding, men vi så at i q1 så estimerte de prefunding i q2 på 64 musd. Dog ble det over 90 musd, noe av det kommer nok for at deler av inntektene som var prognosert å komme kom i q2. prognosen for q3 for q3 bleredusert fra 49 (q1) -> 30(q2)musd. Påpeker bare at det er et potensiale her.