Nå har de vel sagt at de har veldig lite hedging og at de ønsker å fortsette slik. Samtidig sa de at det var mulig at de ville gjøre en begrenset hedge på noe av volumet inn mot løftetidspunktet for ikke å treffe en ekkel hump. Men tror ikke hedge påvirker prisen så mye at det blir et problem vedr. utbytte.

Det er forresten rart de bruker uttrykket realisert pris. Det kan jo være kvartaler uten lifting. Vi har hatt flere av dem. Hva da?

EDIT. Fint avslutning i dag. Endte i grønt og sluttet på HOD.

Ettersom de kun ga 3 mill usd i utbytte sist, ikke 5 mill, som ville vært 20 mill likt fordelt på alle kvartal.
De har signalisert at den store inntektsboosten kommer i Q4. Mitt bet er derfor 3 mill også neste gang. 14 mill fordelt på 2 siste kvartal, kanskje mest etter Q4.

Dersom 4 mill ived Q3, så er der 10 mill usd igjen til siste kvartal., det skulle bli ca. 90 øre etter Q4.

Dersom oljeprisen som oppnås blir 90 usd+, blir tallene enda hyggeligere.

Sterk overvekt for H2 også, men jeg tror ikke at jeg ser problemet/spørsmålet - det må være selskapets realiserte vektede (års)pris det snakkes om. Får de 85$ i Q1 og så 70$ i Q2 så er ikke snittet nødvendigvis under 80$ (les: hvis de løfter mer i Q1 enn i Q2)

Panoro Energy

UPDATE­ ­|­ ­14 APR­ ­2023

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL REPORT
Production growth derisked & P/E’24 2x
First oil at Hibiscus & Ruche derisk Panoro’s 65% production growth guidance to 12,500 bbl/day by YE’23. Simultaneously, 2x P/E’24e at Brent USD 85/bbl indicate that this transformation is yet to be reflected in the pricing. We estimate USD 50/160m of FCF in 2023/24e at Brent USD 85/bbl, implying that a good 2023 is likely to be followed by a spectacular 2024 driven by the full year impact of the production ramp-up and infill drilling at Ceiba & Okume. On our estimates, cumulative FCF to YE’24e is equivalent to 70% of the market cap, providing flexibility to lift dividends and invest in further growth. For instance, a 50% payout of FCF implies a dividend yield of 17% and a USD 50m net cash position at YE’24e assuming Brent USD 85/bbl. BUY reiterated – TP up to NOK 45 (41)



First oil at Hibiscus & Ruche and infill drilling at the Okume Complex

First oil at Hibiscus & Ruche (17.5% WI) was achieved earlier this week, with the first production well performing as expected at 6,000 bbl/day. Five more wells are underway, and the new gas compressor being commissioned, likely to result in near-term positive news flow. We expect production to plateau at the FPSO capacity, 7,000 bbl/day net to the company, in Q4’23e (up from ~1,800 in Q4’22). Furthermore, infill drilling will commence at the Okume complex towards the end of 2023e. Both initiatives will contribute to the >13,000 bbl/day production in 2024e and reduce opex per bbl by ~35% to USD 13/bbl, on our estimates.

~70% of market cap in FCF in 2023-24e

Panoro turned FCF positive in 2022, at USD 26m, helped by both high oil prices and the Block G acquisition (repaid in less than 2 years). Driven by Dussafu we estimate a FCF of USD ~210m in 2023-24e at Brent USD 85/bbl, equivalent to ~70% of the market cap. 2022 also marked the announcement of Panoro’s inaugural cash dividend set at USD 20m this year with potential to more than double as the company approaches a net cash position (early 2024e) and FCF grows. At 50% payout of FCF and Brent USD 85/bbl, we estimate that PEN can support a USD 50m cash dividend (~17% yield) from 2024.

BUY – TP up to NOK 45 (41) on first oil at Hibiscus & Ruche

We estimate Panoro’s NAV at NOK 45/share (41), assuming Brent USD 85/85/70 per bbl in 2023/24/LT and 15% WACC (NOK 11/share impact of USD 10/bbl change in Brent). The increase in NAV is driven by positive impact from first oil at Hibiscus & Ruche, which more than offsets reduced oil price assumptions since the last update. PEN now trades at ~0.62x P/NAV. Furthermore, we estimate 2024e P/E of 1.9x and ~50% FCF yield at Brent USD 85/bbl. BUY reiterated, TP to NOK 45 (41).

See our presentation for further details.

Contact analyst(s)
Analyst(s):

Tom Erik Kristiansen, +47 24 13 21 86, tek@paretosec.com
Martin Ulrichsen, +47 24 13 21 08, martin.ulrichsen@paretosec.com
Jørgen Weidemann, +47 22 87 88 45, jorgen.weidemann@paretosec.com


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Takk for den. Tenk om den steg til 45 kr. Det har jeg dessverre liten tro på når «first oil» ble mottatt med et skuldertrekk, men hadde vært digg om den nærmer seg 40 kr. Vi må heller ikke glemme at det sannsynligvis blir en eller to letebrønner pluss en på blokk S i EG.

Vurderer å kjøpe deg inn igjen? Eller kanskje har du gjort det allerede?

Med en slik positiv analyse av Panoro som Pareto securities kom med er det bare å kjøpe mer Pen aksjer

I tillegg kommer denne i dag:» IEA: Produksjonskutt fra Opec+ kan forverre tilbudsunderskudd»

Men Russland spruter ut olje som aldri tidligere(til lav pris)

Tja, lav pris, men har et kutt på 500, og det er ikke frivillig, det er pga manglende vedlikehold/ snarlig produksjonskollaps

PEN er i hvert fall veldig sterk i dag så langt. I grønt og snuser på 29-tallet. Man kan mistenke at det skyldes Paretoanalysen, men de hevet også kursmålet for BWE til 48 kr. Likevel faller de to prosent. Svært lite innen olje er i grønt i dag, men likevel stiger PEN med 1,75%. Sterkt. Måtte det vare.

Kjøpte i siste del av mars, PEN og PNOR... måtte ta litt DNO da den krakket......45%PEN, 30% DNO og 25% PNOR.
Er bare inne med ca. 1/4 av det jeg var før, synes fremdeles det er skumle tider 😊

Høres fornuftig ut. Velkommen tilbake!

Takker 😊

Det er jeg enig i FF. Har heller ingen snarlig tro på 45. 35 som var siste topp ser ut til å være en kraftig barriere da den de få gangene den har vært i nærheten alltid snur ned i dette området.

Samtidig er det jo slik at det fundamentale vinner til slutt. Det har vi sett i Pen tidligere. Med P/E på 2 i 2024 så er det klart at dagens kurs ikke vil vare. Ingen fornuftige investorer vil stå utenfor et selskap med P/E 2 som i tillegg potensielt kan gi en yield på 17%. Det blir alt for attraktivt. Det betyr at kursen må gå opp fra dagens nivå. Så blir spørsmålet hvor mye. Jeg tror at vi vil passere 35 i løpet av året og kanskje nærme oss 40, men ikke over.

Tja. Tallknuserne som har dette som jobb, joda ofte gjør de underlige vurderinger, ser kursmålet langt mer positivt enn flere her inne. Erfaringsmessig er det vel gjerne slik at når en aksje faller, så faller den lengre ned enn en på forhånd kunne tro. -Og motsatt. Fire anbefalinger om kjøp. Ingen hold. Ingen selg.

Det som bestemmer om Pen går over 40 kr er oljeprisen. Er oljeprisen over 95 usd eller mer kan Pen passere 40 kr, eller dersom Pen finner drivverdig olje på EG S01. Vell det blir mye viss om at dersom. Mye kan hende før 2024 er passe.

Jeg har skrevet forventer kr 40 ved årsskiftet.

Tror det er mer realistisk enn 45 ):

Utbytte har relativ stor betydning for kursen ved årets slutt, men 10% økning i snitt oljepris burde gi større hopp enn fra 40 til 45.

Men fra 40 til 45 er det 12,5 % økning.

.

For å legge til hva kjøpsanbefalingene ligger på så er median kr 45.58. Altså over 45. (fa.no - børsoversikten) Joda, jeg har mye pen i portisen og har hatt det siden nec og jammen har dert vært både sjampis den ene dagen og spagetti med ketchup andre dager...

Problemet (og også den potensielle gullgruven for langsiktige) er at markedet ikke ser mer enn ca 12mnd frem i tid, så produksjonsveksten (les: inntektsøkningen) som PEN forventer er ikke noe markedet tar inn over seg helt enda. I stedet fokuserer markedet på risiko for resesjon og andre skumle ting (ikke at man skal se bort fra det, men dog).

Her er en morsom analyse fra Pareto som Original Brailla har tvitret: https://twitter.com/OriginalBraila/status/1646621295407185920/photo/1
Med forventet produksjonsøkning - og fast oljepris på 80$ - vil PE og FCF yield se ut som følger:
2022 PE 13,1 og FCF% = 8%
2023 PE 3,8 og FCF% = 13%
2024 PE 2,2 og FCF% = 43%

Dersom dette slår til så vil neppe kursen ligger under 30kr i 2024 (spesielt ikke dersom selskapet er litt mer aggressiv mtp utbytter fra og med neste år)

IEA: World oil demand to reach record high in 2023
World oil demand will climb by 2 million b/d in 2023 to a record 101.9 million b/d, the International Energy Agency said in its April issue Oil Market Report

Gabon er er bra land å ha produksjon i synes det som etter den nye petroleumskoden kom.« Gabon’s New Hydrocarbons Code: A

«Bold Step into the Future
Friday, April 14, 2023
Rapid liberalization, lower taxes, and a host of incentives for investors are helping Gabon draw interest to its oil industry and realize the potential of its natural gas reserves

Hailed as a new dawn for investors, the new code quickly attracted private sector interest as an unprecedented 12 new oil production-sharing deals were signed in the weeks following the rollout of the new regulations. Malaysia’s state-owned Petronas was among the first energy majors to step up, acquiring exploration rights to two offshore blocks that authorities had previously failed to auction in 2014. Backed by US-based private equity firm Carlyle Group, Assala Gabon also bagged licenses for three exploration blocks. Meanwhile, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) raised its stake in two offshore blocks from 25% to 100% as it bought out Shell’s share in the venture. CNOOC has also announced plans to invest a further $30 million in exploration activities in the country.

The heightened interest in Gabon is largely attributable to the deregulation of its hydrocarbons sector, which is a core aim of its recently enacted reforms. The maximum limit for state participation in production-sharing contracts (PSCs) has been reduced from 20% to 10%. Similarly, the state’s share of the profit from natural gas exploration activities has also been limited to 10%.

Besides providing a quicker path to profitability for prospective investors in both offshore and onshore ventures, the reform also reduces their financial burden and allows them greater control over operations through a range of fiscal incentives. The prevalent corporation tax in the country is 35% but has been cut to zero in the case of the hydrocarbon industry. State royalties for the sector have also seen sizeable reductions from around 15% to as low as 2% for offshore exploration and drilling activities. Certain axes on onshore mining activities have also been lowered.

Due to these and other reforms, cost recovery has improved significantly, including from 75% to 90% for offshore fields. In the case of shallow water oil and gas fields, this ratio has increased from 65% to as high as 80% with the introduction of the new code. Coupled with the reduction in state royalties, experts believe these measures have lifted the valuation of Gabonese oil and gas reserves by around 40% for current and prospective investors because international oil companies are now able to retain a larger proportion of profits and earn a higher return on investments. Concurrently, authorities are also expediting the collection of seismic and well data to arm potential operators with the information they need to make their investment decisions.«

https://www.petroleumafrica.com/gabons-new-hydrocarbons-code-a-bold-step-into-the-future/

Ny uke. Brent litt ned og PEN litt opp. Brent har steget i alle de fire siste ukene. Blir det en femte?

I den uhøytidlige føljetongen mellom BWE og PEN når det gjelder nominell kurs så ligger PEN nå et lite hestehode foran.

Hva kan vi håpe på av nyheter denne uken? Det er vel ikke umulig med en melding ang. kunstig løft fra Tortue vha. komressoren, men tror det neppe. Det kan være litt prøving og feiling før man har optimal samlet flow vil jeg tro. Arbeidet er i hvert fall i gang og brønn nr. 2 er i gang på andre uken.

EDIT: Noen som våger seg til å tippe hvor stor økningen fra Tortue blir?

Jeg tror produksjonen fra Tortue blir 16000-17000 boed når komprossoren går for fullt. Q4-produksjon lå på 9.600 boed, men da med bare 4 brønne i produksjon + noe produksjon for en kortere periode fra en av de nye brønnene. Nå er det 6 brønner som skal produsere samtidig + stimuli/press fra gass (nitrogen?).
Samtidig er det nok en del decline, så kanskje 16000 boed er litt optimistisk?

Edit: Estimerte total produksjon fra alle 6 Tortue-brønnene samlet (ikke bare økningen) :)

Skjønte det. Tror det er et bra tips. Selv tenker jeg meg ca 5000 bopd i økning, men det er lite å hente ut fra BWE sine histogrammer. I q4-presentasjonen viste de to diagrammer på hhv. side 8 og 26. Ingen av de viser noen økning overhodet.

https://www.bwenergy.no/siteassets/bwe-quarterly-reports/bwe-q4-2022-presentation.pdf

I q3-presentasjonen viser de også to diagrammer på hhv. side 8 og side 22. Det første viser ingen økning i det hele tatt, men det andre viser anslagsvis 4 - 5000 bopd i økning. Ut i fra det er du kanskje litt optimistisk, men i samme størrelsesorden som BWE. .

https://www.bwenergy.no/siteassets/bwe-quarterly-reports/bw-energy-q3-2022.pdf

Synes det er svakt av BWE å surre sånn. Sannheten er vel at ingen vet. Kanskje blir det mer enn vi tror.

https://twitter.com/occi_nor/status/1647954885130813440?s=20

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/587796

Panoro Energy - Acquisition of Minority Share in Panoro's Tunisian Business
Oslo, 18 April 2023 - Panoro Energy ASA ("Panoro" or the "Company") is pleased
to announce that it has entered into a definitive agreement with Beender Tunisia
Petroleum Limited ("Beender") to acquire its 40 percent shareholding in Sfax
Petroleum Corporation AS ("SPC") for a total consideration of approximately USD
18.2 million in a mix of cash and shares (the "Acquisition").

SPC through its subsidiaries, indirectly owns a 49 percent interest in the
producing TPS Assets which comprise five oil field concessions in the region of
the city of Sfax, onshore and offshore shallow water Tunisia, and an 87.5
percent interest in the Sfax Offshore Exploration Permit ("SOEP") offshore
Tunisia.

Prior to the Acquisition, Panoro's effective ownership of SPC stood at 60
percent (29.4 percent interest in the TPS Assets and 52.5 percent interest in
SOEP). Post the Acquisition Panoro's ownership of SPC will increase to 100
percent (49 percent interest in the TPS Assets and 87.5 percent interest in
SOEP) and SPC will be a fully owned subsidiary of Panoro.

John Hamilton, CEO of Panoro, commented:

"This is a compelling and accretive transaction for Panoro that is aligned with
our growth strategy. The Acquisition materially increases our interest in the
producing TPS Assets, where we have built a deep understanding through our role
as joint operator alongside the Tunisian national oil company ETAP since 2018,
and the prospective Sfax Offshore Exploration Permit. The TPS Assets are long
-life, low-cost oil fields with a stable production history and significant
volumes of oil yet to be recovered while the Sfax Offshore Exploration Permit
holds three oil discoveries and numerous identified prospects and leads in the
vicinity of existing infrastructure. Beender have been a highly valued minority
partner for several years and we now welcome them as Panoro shareholders."

Julien Balkany, Chairman of Panoro, added:

"We are very pleased to complete this complementary acquisition of almost 3
million barrels of oil of 2P reserves and net daily production of 800-900 bopd.
We welcome the opportunity to expand our position in Tunisia and to increase our
net exposure to our TPS existing producing assets with minimal additional G&A
costs. The attractive purchase price means this value driven acquisition shall
be immediately accretive and is consistent with Panoro's strategic vision whilst
remaining fully committed to maintain our current shareholder returns policy."

Highlights

· Acquisition of Beender's 40 percent ownership of SPC equates to a 19.6
percent interest in the producing TPS Assets and 35 percent interest in SOEP
· Adds an estimated 2.96 million barrels of net 2P reserves (100 percent oil)
and 800 to 900 bopd of net production
· Increases Panoro's full year 2023 production guidance to 9,500 to 11,500
bopd (from 9,000 to 11,000 bopd), recognising approximately nine months of
production from completion, and increases the 2023 peak target to in excess of
13,000 bopd (previously in excess of 12,500 bopd) around year end
· Attractive valuation metrics and synergies
· Total acquisition cost of USD 6 per 2P barrel
· Simplifies Panoro's Tunisian asset ownership structure with SPC becoming a
wholly owned subsidiary
· Minimal incremental administrative costs as already covered through
Panoro's existing presence
· Simplified and more efficient lending structure, with Tunisian assets now
included in Panoro's main facility rather than standalone

· As part of the acquisition, Panoro has assumed approximately USD 4 million
of Beender's share of outstanding Tunisian loan facilities. Panoro has
refinanced this Tunisian facility into its principle corporate facility,
increasing total facility amounts by USD 9 million (separately Panoro has made
Q1 loan repayments of USD 6 million). Panoro has then also assumed Beender's
share of cash and working capital equivalent to approximately USD 6.5 million
· The Consideration payable is inclusive of all working capital adjustments
with completion expected in April 2023
· Balance sheet as of the completion date will include an additional 40
percent of asset and liabilities of SPC acquired at fair value and equally the
results from the Tunisian operation will be consolidated at 100 percent
· Upfront consideration comprises USD 4.9 million cash and USD 8.3 million
("Share Consideration") via the allotment and issue of 2,945,035 new Panoro
shares at an issue price of NOK 29.18 per share (issue value NOK
85,936,092.12). Half of the Share Consideration have an agreed lock-up period
of six months form the issue date, whereas the remaining 50 percent are subject
to a lock-up of 12 months.
· Deferred consideration of USD 5 million payable in cash by end 2023

About The TPS Assets

The TPS Assets comprise five oil field concessions in the region of the city of
Sfax, onshore and shallow water offshore Tunisia. The concessions are Cercina,
Cercina Sud, Rhemoura, El Ain/Gremda and El Hajeb/Guebiba.

The oil fields were discovered in the 1980's and early 1990's and have produced
over 60 million barrels of oil to date. Current production is stable at rates in
excess of 4,000 barrels of oil per day. Approximately 50 wells have been drilled
in the TPS fields to date, whilst some of these wells have been abandoned, 12
remain on production with seven wells currently shut-in awaiting workovers or
reactivation. Three wells are used for disposal of produced water. Production
facilities consist of the various wellhead installations, connected via intra
-field pipelines to processing, storage and transportation systems. Crude is
transported to a storage and export terminal about 70 km south of the Assets at
La Skhira.

SPC indirectly owns a 49 percent interest in the fields and a 50 percent
interest in the TPS operating company. In 2022 gross production at the TPS
Assets averaged 4,232 bopd. Panoro sees opportunities to restore production to
historic levels of 6,000 bopd gross.

About The SOEP

The SOEP, containing the Ras El Besh Concession, lies in the prolific oil and
gas Cretaceous and Eocene carbonate platforms of the Pelagian Basin offshore
Tunisia. In the vicinity of the Permit area are numerous existing producing
fields with infrastructure and spare capacity in pipelines and facilities.

The Permit is operated by Panoro Tunisia Exploration AS. There are three oil
discoveries on the permit, Salloum, Ras El Besh, and Jawahra, with gross
recoverable oil estimated to be approximately 20 million barrels.

In addition to these discoveries there is considerable exploration potential in
the Permit, with gross unrisked prospective resources estimated at to be around
250 million barrels.

Enquiries

Qazi Qadeer, Chief Financial Officer
Tel: +44 203 405 1060
Email: investors@panoroenergy.com

About Panoro Energy

Panoro Energy ASA is an independent exploration and production company based in
London and listed on the main board of the Oslo Stock Exchange with the ticker
PEN. Panoro holds production, exploration and development assets in Africa,
namely interests in Block-G, Block S (pending approval) and Block EG-01 (pending
ratification), offshore Equatorial Guinea, the Dussafu License offshore southern
Gabon, the TPS operated assets, Sfax Offshore Exploration Permit and Ras El Besh
Concession, offshore Tunisia, and interests in an exploration Block 2B, and
Technical Co-operation Permit 218 in South Africa.

Visit us at www.panoroenergy.com.

Follow us on LinkedIn (https://www.linkedin.com/company/panoro-energy)

Skal de utsette 2,94 M nye aksjer?

https://www.finansavisen.no/energi/2023/04/18/8001540/panoro-kjoper-tunisisk-oljeselskap

Panoro kjøper tunisisk oljeselskap
Publisert 18. apr. 2023 kl. 07.59
Lesetid: 1 minutt

KJØPER: Panoro Energy i Afrika. FOTO: PANORO ENERGY
Energi

Panoro Energy har inngått en endelig avtale med Beender Tunisia Petroleum Limited for kjøp av selskapets eierandel på 40 prosent i Sfax Petroleum Corporation AS (SPC) for et samlet vederlag på om lag 18,2 millioner dollar, med oppgjør i kontanter av Panoro Energy-aksjer.

Før transaksjonen var Panoro Energys effektive eierskap i SPC på 60 prosent, og etter kjøpet vil eierskapet være 100 prosent og blir et heleid datterselskap av Panoro.

SPC eier, gjennom sine datterselskaper, 49 prosent av TPS Assets, som omfatter fem oljefeltkonsesjoner i Sfax, onshore og offshore Tunisia, samt en eierandel på 87,5 prosent i Sfax Offshore Exploration Permit offshore Tunisia.

Transaksjonen legger til anslagsvis 2,96 millioner fat i netto 2P-reserver og øker Panoros produksjonsguiding for 2023 til 9.500-11.500 fat pr. dag, fra tidligere 9.000-11.000 fat pr. dag.

Oppgjøret omfatter 4,9 millioner dollar i kontanter og 8,3 millioner vederlagsaksjer, via utstedelse av nær 3 millioner nye Panoro-aksjer til kurs 29,18 kroner pr. aksje. I tillegg er det et utsatt vederlag på fem millioner dollar som skal betales i kontanter ved utgangen av 2023. 50 prosent av vederlagsaksjene har en avtalt bindingstid på 6 måneder, mens de resterende 50 prosent er underlagt bindingstid på 12 måneder.

TDN Direkt

Kan se slik ut. Disse kan bli tilgjengelige i markedet om 6-12 mnd. Blir greit for algomaskinene å ha litt mer å leke med 😉

Detaljer er viktig.

Alternativ 1 - fra børsmelding
Increases Panoro’s full year 2023 production guidance to 9,500 to 11,500 bopd (from 9,000 to 11,000 bopd), recognising approximately nine months of production from completion, and increases the 2023 peak target to in excess of 13,000 bopd (previously in excess of 12,500 bopd) around year end.

Alterntiv 2 - E24 aksjelive
Panoro kjøper eierandelene fra selskapet Beender og endrer egen guiding på produksjon fra 9500 til 11.500 fat olje i året.

Mandagens sluttkurs var på 29,18 – på øret det samme som verdsettelsen av betalingsaksjene (for oppkjøpet i Tunisia).
Pussige greier?

Se forøvrig ut til å være et god handel for Panoro.

Hadde vært interessant å få et estimat på hvor lang tid kjøpet betaler seg gjennom antatt produksjon

En god handel for 2 parter er vel sjeldent. Bereder kjenner jeg ikke åog vet om de var i likviditet trøbbel.
Hva gjelder tildeling av aksjer så vet vi ikke før det kommer i markedet hva prisen blir, kan slå begge veier men regner med at panoro produksjonsokning vil slå ut positivt for selgeren mot årsskiftet.
Vil for vervet forandre noe av utbytte policyn i Panoro?

Jeg leser børsmelding slik: Totalt ubytte som tildligere annonsert. De ca 2,9 mill nyopptrykkede aksjene til 29,18 pr stk er deloppgjør for kjøpet. Det gir selvfølgelig tilsvarende flere aksjer å fordele utbyttet på. Men en økning fra 113.689.372 til 116.634.407 stk utgjør en marginalt liten forskjell i utbytte pr aksje.

Da åpner vi vell på 29,18