An operationally geared bet on the China recovery

The Godfather
RANA 16.12.2022 kl 12:05 14228

Clarksons Platou er ute med en oppdatering på Rana Gruber i dag;

China's easing of COVID-19 restrictions combined with property sector support
has been driving iron ore prices from around $80/t at the start of November to
around the $110/t mark today.

While we by no means believe that the reopening
of China is going to be an easy task without some setbacks on the road, the new
path of the country is positive for the prospects of iron ore demand in the medium
to long term.

On a three-month basis, Rana has been lagging peers, despite being
an operationally geared player with high sensitivity to changes in iron ore prices.

Should the current forward curve persist, we believe the company could deliver
a 2023 dividend yield of around 18%, which we deem attractive.

We increase
our target price on Rana Gruber to NOK59/share representing a 28% upside to
yesterday's close and upgrade our rating from Neutral to Buy.
The Godfather
04.01.2023 kl 09:00 8982

Jernmalmaksjer kraftig opp i Australia etter at det ble rapportert at Kina er i ferd med å avslutte det uoffisielle forbudet mot australsk kulleksport.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/CIA-AU


https://www.finansavisen.no/ravarer/2023/01/04/7973906/den-australske-dollaren-stiger-pa-kull-rykter?internal_source=sistenytt
The Godfather
05.01.2023 kl 12:37 8859

Veldig bra produksjonstall. Nesten på nivå med forrige kvartal som var historisk beste.

Rana Gruber ASA – Production update Q4-22

Rana Gruber has today published the production update for the fourth quarter of 2022.
The concentrate production of the fourth quarter was 460 000 metric tons, up from 435 000 metric tons last year. This is in line with the strong production last quarter and a result of continuous improvement in the entire value chain.

Please see attachments for selected production and sales metrics for the quarter.

About Rana Gruber
Rana Gruber is a Norwegian iron ore producer established in 1964, with operations based on more than 200 years of mining experience. The company's products are based on natural mineral resources, which are processed and exported to customers worldwide. Key customers include steel producers and participants in the chemical industry. The company has about 300 employees and a production capacity of 1.8 million metric tons of iron ore concentrates.

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/579639

The Godfather
05.01.2023 kl 14:07 8841

Clarksons er ute med en update

■ Rana Gruber impresses with strong 4Q22 production - Rana Gruber (RANA, Buy) released production and sales numbers for 4Q22 in an update this
morning. Production of 460kt was in line with the record quarter of 3Q22 (469kt), and above our 435kt assumption. We expect total cost to be in line with the
previous quarter, and with the high production, unit costs should be similar to 3Q22 as well (~$43/t FOB). FY22 estimates from our December update should
still be relevant with sales of 399kt in line with our 395kt assumption, but we expect to make some adjustment to sales volumes for 2023 to account for the
inventory build last quarter. We deem today's release to be positive for the stock as it provides comfort on the consistency of higher output volumes following
optimization of the mine's refinement circuits.

If current iron ore prices persist, we believe Rana could have a dividend yield of about 22% in 2023
The Godfather
06.01.2023 kl 11:19 8721

Clarksons update

Iron ore gains as China is planning to relax borrowing restrictions of property developers

The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 1.9% to $124.66/t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is up 1.9% to $117.30/t at the time of writing.

Reuters reports that China is planning to ease restrictions on borrowing for property developers, including allowing higher leverage. The news is fueling metal markets and sent the Australian ASX 300 Metals & Mining index up 3.3% this morning, with iron ore majors BHP, Rio Tinto and FMG gaining between 2.4% and 3.7%.

Additionally, China's central bank announced yesterday that it has established a dynamic adjustment mechanism on mortgage rates for first-time buyers. In cities where the selling prices of new homes fall month-on-month and year-on-year for three consecutive months, the floor on mortgage rates can be lowered for people buying their first home.



Redigert 06.01.2023 kl 11:22 Du må logge inn for å svare
The Godfather
10.01.2023 kl 14:00 8405

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore gains with China past the first COVID-19 peak

-The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 1.2% to $123.83/t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is up 2.6% to $120.10/t at the time of writing.

According to Reuters, a compilation of reports from local governments and health experts across the country suggest that the first COVID-19 wave (post reopening) is past its peak in multiple regions. Infections are now reportedly declining in Beijing and some provinces estimate that 90% of its population have now been infected. We expect there to be another peak in new infections later in 1Q23, as the virus is likely to spread from the large cities to more rural and so far less affected areas with the expected uptick in mobility during the upcoming Chinese New Year holiday starting 21 January.

Redigert 10.01.2023 kl 14:01 Du må logge inn for å svare
P.Eksperten
11.01.2023 kl 08:23 8291

Clarksons ga ett kursmål på Rana på 59 kroner da prisen på jernmalm med 62% innhold gikk fra 80 til 110 dollar. Nå vaker samme malmkvalitet på ca 120 dollar og kan gå høyere ettersom to større jernmalmprodusenter har rapportert at produksjonen blir omtrent likt som 2022. Eller tilnærmet flatt. Kommer det nye oppjusteringer? Champion Iron ore har nærmest doblet kursen siden oktober. De har jo også planer om produksjonsøkning og har malmkvalitet med 65% innhold.
The Godfather
11.01.2023 kl 08:50 8288

Det er ventet lavere output på jernmalmsiden de neste årene fra noen av verdens ledende gruver
The Godfather
11.01.2023 kl 12:47 8221

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore continue to gain as supply concerns further boosts sentiment

-The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 1.6% to $123.83/t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is up 1.7% to $122.00/t at the time of writing, hitting a six-month-high.

Lower shipping volumes, especially from Brazil during the current rainy season, are driving prices higher, combined with expectations of increasing demand from a reopening China.

The Australian iron ore majors gained another 1.0-2.4% this morning, with the ASX 300 Metals & Mining index trading up 1.8%.
P.Eksperten
12.01.2023 kl 08:51 8135

Virker som det er vanskelig å holde jernmalmprisen nede. Kinesiske myndigheter ønsker prisregulering. Igår spratt prisen på 65% opp med 1,5% til litt i overkant av 135 US dollar.
The Godfather
12.01.2023 kl 09:37 8107

Veldig lave lagre i Kina
The Godfather
12.01.2023 kl 11:04 8163

Berenberg høyner Rio Tinto til kjøp (selg), kursmål 67 pund (40) - BN
P.Eksperten
12.01.2023 kl 12:57 8099

62% opp 1,36% idag.
The Godfather
12.01.2023 kl 14:47 8048

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore rally continues

- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 1.4% to $126.76/t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is inching up 0.1% to $122.15/t at the time of writing.

Promising demand prospects later in the year from a reopening of China, combined with supply concerns over low shipment volumes from Brazil during the current rainy season, are the main stories in iron ore.
The Godfather
13.01.2023 kl 11:22 7932

Et stort Kina-løft for Rana Gruber er ting vi bør forberede oss på, forklarer Clarksons Platou-analytiker Bendik Folden Nyttingnes som er gjest i dagens børsmorgen sending.

Han har kjøpsanbefaling på gruveaksjen. Rana Gruber vil ifølge analytikeren løftes for alvor «når den store bjørnen i Asia, Kina, våkner opp og blir sulten på enda mer jernmalm.»

https://www.finansavisen.no/finans/2023/01/13/7976723/borsmorgen-gruvefunn-salmar-pa-selger-n-og-sas-milliard-i-boks
The Godfather
13.01.2023 kl 14:21 7924

Clarksons update

■ Chinese iron ore hits 17-month high

-The iron ore rally continued this morning as the most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 3.4% to $131.16/t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is up 2.1% to $124.70/t at the time of writing.

An expected uptick in demand later in the year following the reopening of China combined with expectations of stimulus targeting infrastructure projects and the country's troubled real estate sector is fueling the market. In addition, supply concerns over low shipment volumes from Brazil during the current rainy season and cyclone risks in Australia, are also providing support to prices
P.Eksperten
14.01.2023 kl 17:46 7853

Kom nylig statistikk fra Kina som viste at importen av jernmalm sank med 8% fra november til desember. Samtidig som prisene steg. Blir litt spesielt. Kan bety at det kan oppstå en mangelsituasjon når kineserne før eller senere må fylle på lagrene.
Braastad
15.01.2023 kl 18:02 7623

Tilbudssiden i jernmalmmarkedet ser stram ut. Produksjonsguidingen til de fire største produsentene (Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP og Fortescue) tilsier 0-1% tilbudsvekst i år.
Hellboy
15.01.2023 kl 18:36 7594

Metaller blir bra fremover. Det såkalte "grønne skiftet" fordrer enorme mengder gruver. Jernmalm er forsåvidt ikke det beste, men må jo til for vindmøller f.eks.

Forresten noen som har gode tips på kobber-selskaper?
P.Eksperten
15.01.2023 kl 19:32 7564

HellB. Sjekk Aurubis i Tyskland/Frankfurtbørsen. Driver mye med gjenvinning.
P.Eksperten
16.01.2023 kl 10:21 7447

Skal bli spennende å se hvordan det nye innkjøpskontoret skal holde jernmalmprisene nede. Igår spratt FEB kontrakten for 65% litt underkant av 140 dollar tonnet i Singapore. 62% ligger cirka ti dollar lavere, med andre ord vi kan forvente at den også nærmer seg 130 dollar tonnet. Det er 20 dollar høyere enn ved siste Clarkson TP justering.
Hellboy
16.01.2023 kl 11:15 7407

Takk for tipset, skal sjekke dem ut når jeg får litt tid til overs :)
The Godfather
17.01.2023 kl 08:50 7255

RIO TINTO: FASTHOLDER GUIDING FOR JERNMALMSKIPNINGER I 2023

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Rio Tinto ser fortsatt totale skipninger på 320-335 millioner tonn Pilbara-jernmalm i 2023, ifølge en produksjonsoppdatering tirsdag.

Reuters;

Rio looks set to retain its crown as the world's biggest iron ore producer as quarterly iron ore shipments came in slightly ahead of expectations, near the bottom of the year's guidance.

"Results are broadly in line," said Glyn Lawcock of Barrenjoey in Sydney. "It's good to see they made their iron ore guidance. Rio has also noted that system inventories are healthy. ... That puts them on track for a good start to 2023."


https://www.riotinto.com/-/media/Content/Documents/Invest/Financial-news-and-performance/Production/rt-fourth-quarter-operations-review-2022-pdf.pdf?rev=950c7bb1f1834511b8a9ce539c3e51be


Redigert 17.01.2023 kl 09:16 Du må logge inn for å svare
The Godfather
17.01.2023 kl 16:57 7180

Clarksons update


■ Iron Ore Trades Mixed - Chinese Steel Production Gains In December:

The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange slipped 1.3% to $123.23/ t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is up 1.1% to $120.65/t at the time of writing.

Chinese steel production increased in December, adding 4.5% from November to 77.9Mt last month on slightly better steel mill margins. FY22 output of 1.01 billion tonnes is down 2.1% from 2021, marking the second year of decline.
The Godfather
18.01.2023 kl 13:24 7124

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore gains as third Chinese warning against price speculation is deemed toothless by markets

- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 0.9% to $124.46/t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is up 1.0% to $121.75/t at the time of writing.

Today, China's state planner issued its third warning against "excessive speculation" this month following a meeting with market participants on Tuesday, saying that it will increase supervision of the country's spot and futures markets.

According to Reuters, the outcome of the meeting was seen as lacking teeth, with some traders reportedly using the event as a "buy the dip" opportunity.



Redigert 18.01.2023 kl 13:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
The Godfather
19.01.2023 kl 07:32 7146

BHP: FASTHOLDER PRODUKSJONSGUIDING FOR REGNSKAPSÅRET 2023

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): BHP venter fortsatt en jernmalmproduksjon for regnskapsåret 2023 på 100 prosent-basis på 278-290 millioner tonn (WAIO).

Det fremkommer av en oppdatering fra selskapet.

Verdens største gruveselskap venter at Kina vil drive etterspørselen etter råvarer i 2023 når landet åpner, skriver Bloomberg.
The Godfather
19.01.2023 kl 21:46 6994

Clarksons update

BHP with strong production numbers. Sees China as stabilizing force in 2023

• BHP released its 1H23 (calendar year 2H22) operational review yesterday showcasing a strong half in terms and operations and maintaining output guidance in all minerals. Production numbers for the December quarter 2022 showed a 3% increase in iron ore output from the previous quarter to 66.9Mt, making 1H23 a record half for the company. The company is thus well in line to meet its FY23 guidance of 249-260Mt. Unit costs for 1H23 are expected to slip above the upper end of FY23 guidance of $18-19/t for the Western Australia Iron Ore system.

Looking at the market, BHP commented that it expects China to be a stabilizing source of commodity demand in 2023, while the OECD nations are experiencing economic headwinds.

The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 1.6% to $125.81/t this morning, while the most-traded February contract in Singapore is up 1.8% to $123.85/t at the time of writing.
The Godfather
20.01.2023 kl 13:32 6867

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore gains ahead of holiday close

-The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange gained 1.8% to $127.57/t this morning, while the mosttraded February contract in Singapore is up 2.0% to $126.20/t at the time of writing.

The Dalian exchange in China will be closed from 21-27 January for the Lunar New Year holidays.
Hellboy
20.01.2023 kl 14:30 6824

Takk for interessante oppdateringer :)
The Godfather
23.01.2023 kl 15:45 6584

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore inch up in Singapore. Chinese markets closed for holiday

- The most-traded March contract in Singapore is up 0.6% to $126.05/t at the time of writing, while the Dalian exchange in China is closed for the Lunar New Year holidays.

According to Refinitiv, Chinese iron ore imports are on track to reach a potential 116.8Mt in January, a significant jump from 90.9Mt in December, and above the record figure of 112.7Mt seen in July 2020.
The Godfather
26.01.2023 kl 07:57 6324

DNB Markets høyner kursmål til 65 kr (50)

De skriver;

En kombinasjon av begrenset tilbudsvekst og kinesiske pandemilettelser løftet jernmalmprisene med rundt 20% gjennom Q4. Mens prisen på USD 75 pr tonn ved inngangen av kvartalet med våre estimater ville gi kontantstrøm break-even for Rana Gruber hadde prisen ved utgangen av kvartalet steget til opp mot USD 120 pr tonn. Denne utviklingen løfter ikke bare Q4-estimatene, men har samtidig også bidratt til å løfte markedets futurespriser med rundt 50% for 2023-2024. Den høye operasjonelle giringen i selskapet gjør at vi på basis av denne prisutviklingen har tatt opp estimert EPS for Rana Gruber med NOK 7.5-8.2 pr aksje for inneværende og neste år. Kursen stengte i går på NOK 55.10 pr aksje og vi gjentar en kjøpsanbefaling med et oppjustert kursmål fra NOK 50 til NOK 65 pr aksje.
The Godfather
26.01.2023 kl 14:44 6090

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore inch up in Singapore. Hang Seng up 2.4% in first day of trading following Chinese New Year

- The most-traded March contract in Singapore is inching up 0.1% to $125.00/t at the time of writing while the Dalian Exchange in China remains closed.

Reuters reports that Asian shares rose to a new 7-month high today, as the Hang Seng index played catch-up with other markets gains. At the time of writing the Hong Kong is up 2.4%.
Tiur11
26.01.2023 kl 17:52 5984

mener han her et utbytte for 4.kvartal 2022 på 2,70 kr pr.aksje?
Slettet bruker
26.01.2023 kl 18:31 5940

Tviler, i Q4 begynte jernprisen på ca 97USD/mt var nede i 80 i november men sluttet i 97. I desember har den vert rundt 110USD/mt.
Den steg tidlig i '23 til 120USD/mt.

En SB1M analyse regnet seg frem til at utbyttet ved 120$/mt vil gi ca 9kr aksjen i utbytte og EPS på 12kr.
En jernpris på 90$/mt gir utbytte på 4kr og eps på 6kr.

Så ved dagens jernpriser vil det være ca 9/4 = 2.25kr per kvartal
Med et snittpris på 90 i Q4 regner jeg med det ikke er mye over 1kr.
Redigert 26.01.2023 kl 18:31 Du må logge inn for å svare
Tiur11
26.01.2023 kl 18:51 5903

Regner med rundt krona jeg også for 4. kvartal 2022. (har vært inne i denne aksjen ei stund så ville verte overaska om det ble noe mer for forrige kvartal erfaringmessig)
Redigert 26.01.2023 kl 18:52 Du må logge inn for å svare