An operationally geared bet on the China recovery

The Godfather
RANA 16.12.2022 kl 12:05 14229

Clarksons Platou er ute med en oppdatering på Rana Gruber i dag;

China's easing of COVID-19 restrictions combined with property sector support
has been driving iron ore prices from around $80/t at the start of November to
around the $110/t mark today.

While we by no means believe that the reopening
of China is going to be an easy task without some setbacks on the road, the new
path of the country is positive for the prospects of iron ore demand in the medium
to long term.

On a three-month basis, Rana has been lagging peers, despite being
an operationally geared player with high sensitivity to changes in iron ore prices.

Should the current forward curve persist, we believe the company could deliver
a 2023 dividend yield of around 18%, which we deem attractive.

We increase
our target price on Rana Gruber to NOK59/share representing a 28% upside to
yesterday's close and upgrade our rating from Neutral to Buy.
The Godfather
27.01.2023 kl 12:56 5716

Clarksons update

■ FMG with record shipments in 1H23

- Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) released its 2Q23 (calendar year 4Q22) production report yesterday, presenting a record December quarter and 1H23. Quarterly shipments of 49.4Mt brought the 1H23 number up to 96.9Mt, meaning that the company is well on track to reach its unchanged FY23 guidance of 187-192Mt. The company expects first production from its 22Mtpa high-grade Iron Bridge project at the end of the March quarter. Capital expenditure on the project is expected to trend towards the top end of the $3.6-3.8bn guidance.

The most-traded March contract in Singapore is inching up 0.3% to $125.95/t at the time of writing while the Dalian Exchange in China remains closed.
30.01.2023 kl 09:52 5543

Kommer snart en oppjustering til 80 - 85 kroner. Stål på rull er i Contango. Kan bety økt etterspørsel etter både stål og tilhørende innsats/råvarer.
30.01.2023 kl 12:20 5477

Oppdatering fra SB1 Markets

RANA: Enters into iron ore swap contracts

Rana Gruber just announced it has entered into swap contracts over the period Q2 23 – Q1 24 for 390 kt of iron ore, equivalent to ~23% of the SB1Me production over the same period. The swap contracts were done at an average price of USD ~121.5/t which is in line with the forward curve over the same period. As we use the forward curve until YE23 in our model, only the coverage for Q1 24 will affect our estimates (We assume a long-term 62% Fe price of USD 85/t from 2024). We think it makes sense to lock in some production at current levels as iron ore prices have been very strong and it de-risks the company's dividend capacity. With current swap coverage for 2023 we estimate Rana Gruber will be in a dividend position as long as iron ore prices average > USD 55/t.

The company now has iron ore swap contracts in place for a total of 630 kt over the period Q1 23 – Q1 24 at an average price of USD ~128.1/t. The contracts cover some 30% of the SB1Me production over the same period.

Iron ore prices remain firm on the expectation of rebounding Chinese demand and limited supply growth from majors. The 1st position is currently trading at USD 124/t and the average for 2023 at USD 123.5/t. This compares with Rana's all-in cash cost at USD 70-75/t.

The forward curve now implies a ~20% dividend yield for Rana Gruber in 2023. The company pays out 70% of adj. EPS.
The Godfather
30.01.2023 kl 16:15 5413

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore rally continues as Chinese markets resume trading following Lunar New Year holiday

- The most-traded March contract in Singapore is trading up 1.5% to $128.20/t at the time of writing while the most-traded May contract Dalian Exchange is up 2.0% to $129.39/t, as trading has resumed following the Lunar New Year holiday.

The Chinese central bank said on Sunday that it would roll over lending tools targeting three sectors, including transport and logistics.

In Australia, Rio Tinto apologized for losing a tiny radioactive capsule from a truck earlier this month, which has sparked a radiation alert across parts of Western Australia. Authorities are now searching the truck's 1,400km journey from Newman to Perth in order to find the missing capsule.
The Godfather
31.01.2023 kl 19:10 5217

Clarksons update

■ Iron ore heading for monthly gain

- The most-traded May contract Dalian Exchange slipped 1.3% to $128.20/t this morning, while the most-traded March contract in Singapore is down 0.5% to $127.45/t at the time of writing.

The Dalian Quote is on track for a 2% monthly growth, while iron ore in Singapore is up 11% this month having played catch-up with the Chinese market. The gains have been driven by demand prospects from a reopening China.
01.02.2023 kl 08:16 5059


Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Vale venter fortsatt jernmalmproduksjon på 310-320 millioner tonn i 2023, sammenlignet med en produksjon på om lag 310 millioner tonn i 2022.

Det fremgår av en selskapsoppdatering tirsdag.

Produksjonen av pellets ventes til 36-40 millioner tonn, opp fra rundt 33 millioner tonn i 2022. Nikkelproduksjonen i 2023 ventes fortsatt til 160.000-175.000 tonn, mot rundt 180.000 tonn i 2022, mens kobberproduksjonen ventes til 335.000-370.000 tonn i 2023, fra rundt 260.000 tonn i 2022.
15.02.2023 kl 07:14 4798

utbytte blei på 3,00 kroner pr.aksje for 4.kvartal 2022 må siest å vere langt over forventa.
Redigert 15.02.2023 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
Gull i pungen
15.02.2023 kl 08:03 4717

EBITDA dårligere enn ventet

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Rana Gruber fikk en ebitda på 168 millioner kroner i fjerde kvartal 2022, sammenlignet med 98 millioner samme periode året før.

Det fremgår av selskapets kvartalsrapport onsdag.

Justert nettoresultat ble 158,1 millioner kroner i kvartalet (102,5), av en omsetning på 383 millioner kroner (276).
The Godfather
15.02.2023 kl 14:38 4575


■ RANA | Rana Gruber beats expectations with NOK 3.0/sh dividend

- Rana Gruber (RANA, Buy) released 4Q22 results this morning in a report slightly above expectations. Sales of NOK 383m was slightly lower than our expected NOK 394m, while cash costs surprised positively, with NOK448/t being below our NOK 460/t assumption.

The company thus continues to deliver higher volumes at similar total costs, resulting in more competitive unit costs. The net profit adjusted for hedges of NOK 158m was above our NOK 143m estimate resulting in a dividend of NOK 3.0/sh, above our NOK 2.7/sh estimate. Ex date is 17. February.

Other estimates of the P&L are off mainly due to the introduction of accounted electric power derivatives adding a NOK 189m financial gain in the 4Q results.

The change in accounting regime on electricity hedges also led to a negative NOK48m cost adjustment for electricity hedges compared to the accounting in previous quarters, which largely explains the difference between reported EBITDA of NOK 168m versus our NOK 210m estimate. The derivatives have previously been treated under the own use exemption, but as the company entered larger hedges than usual and due the difference between the system price and hedged price of electricity, the company will have to present gains/losses on electric power deals going forward. In addition to the quarterly results the company announced that it has signed a frame agreement for a fleet of 19 battery-electric vehicles from Sandvik for a total value of SEK 370m (NOK 362m). The agreement follows a letter of intent from November 2022 and Rana has included the upgrade to an electric fleet in its previous Capex estimates. Delivery of the first four machines (one has been delivered so far, with the rest to follow in 2H23) is booked at a total value of NOK 58 million. Enova has granted funding of NOK 8.7 million for these four machines in total and from our questions regarding what we should expect in future Enova grants, we understand that a similar rate (~15%) is a fair assumption. We had already accounted for an increase in Capex for 2023, expecting NOK 164m in total growth and sustaining Capex.

All in we deem this to be a solid report, delivering slightly above expectations. On a valuation level, we don't expect to make material changes on the back of this report, as we adjusted volumes up and unit cash costs down in our 4Q22 preview. The changes in accounting is however going to have an impact on non-adjusted estimates on the income statement from EBITDA and below in future reports.
Gull i pungen
16.02.2023 kl 12:44 4418

DNB Markets høyner kursmål til 70 (65)
24.02.2023 kl 22:31 4035

Jernmalmaksjer ned på Wall St. i kveld;

BHP -3,82%
RIO -3,62%
27.02.2023 kl 06:37 3859

Nedturen for jernmalmaksjer fortsetter med kraftige fall i Australia i dag;

Fortescue -7,25%
27.02.2023 kl 08:11 3794


Among stocks, Materials tanked 3.2% overall as Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX:RIO) dipped 3%, BHP Group Ltd (ASX:BHP) lost 3.2% and Champion Iron Ltd (ASX:CIA) lost 6.7%, while Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (ASX:FMG) shed 7.3%
Redigert 27.02.2023 kl 08:14 Du må logge inn for å svare
03.03.2023 kl 16:36 3524

Idag Rana Grubler jeg på om ikke dette er en av børsens mest spennende aksje og for ikke å snakke om veldig sannsynlig muligens den mest underprisa aksjen i min portefølje.
Redigert 03.03.2023 kl 17:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
03.03.2023 kl 20:24 3456

har du vært med i denne lenge? q1 2023 kan bli veldig bra viss prisene holder frem så nå...3 for q4 2022 var lang over forventa
04.03.2023 kl 09:18 3362

Har vært med siden en vakker dag da jeg fann ut at det var en jerngruve aksje på børsen vår. Kjøpte mine første opp på 60 tallet for snart et år siden. Så selte jeg meg ut på 50 tallet når det begynte å gå ned og kjøpte tilbake extra mye når jeg satsa på den hadde stabilisert seg og bunna ut på 40. Du da?
04.03.2023 kl 10:50 3291

Har vært med hele veien siden sommeren 2021, dype daler og høye topper. med flere fastprisavtaler på inntektene og utgiftene som kanskje en unngår de voldsomme svingningene fremover. med høyere produksjon, renere jernmalmkonsentrat (fra 62 til 65%) en cargill avtale om en får solgt alt som blir produsert i mangen år (2030)....
Redigert 04.03.2023 kl 10:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
The Godfather
06.03.2023 kl 14:46 3090


■ Iron ore slips on China's GDP growth target and another round of steel production curbs

- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange slipped 2.1% to $129.70/t this morning, while the most-traded March contract in Singapore is down 1.3% to $123.85/t at the time of writing.

China's GDP growth target of about 5% has disappointed markets this morning.

In addition, China's top steelmaking hub Tangshan, introduced another round of production curbs on March 4 as an emergency response to heavy air pollution forecasts.

Redigert 06.03.2023 kl 14:51 Du må logge inn for å svare
The Godfather
10.03.2023 kl 11:44 2839

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Kina tar nye grep for å hindre hamstring av jernmalm etter den seneste oppgangen i jernmalmprisene. Myndighetene i Beijing oppfordrer trading-selskaper som lagrer jernmalm i store volumer i havner til å selge noe av beholdningene, sier ikke navngitte kilder til Bloomberg News.

Videre vurderer myndighetene også å øke havnelagerleie for store volumlaster.

Beijing har lenge prøvd å finne måter for å få mer innflytelse innen jernmalmmarkedet gitt landets store importavhengighet fra et lite antall globale gruveselskaper, skriver nyhetstjenesten fredag.

Jernmalmprisene falt på nyheten før de delvis hentet seg inn igjen. Prisene handlet opp 0,6 prosent til 128,35 dollar pr tonn klokken 09:51 etter å ha vært opp så mye som 2,4 prosent tidligere i handelssesjonen.
The Godfather
16.03.2023 kl 13:10 2561


Iron Ore

■ ASX 300 Metals & Mining index drops 3.4% on risk-off sentiment

- The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index dropped 3.4% this morning, following yesterday's volatile trading sessions in the US and Europe on fears of a banking crisis. Heavyweights BHP, Rio Tinto and FMG fell 4.8%, 4.0% and 3.2% respectively.

The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange traded down 2.8% to $130.70/t this morning, while the most-traded April contract in Singapore is trading down 2.4% $129.00/t at the time of writing.

On the supply side, BHP is potentially facing a $44bn lawsuit in London over the Samarco dam disaster in 2015. BHP was initially sued by 200 thousand claimants, but that numbers has more than tripled to 700 thousand. 19 people were killed in the dam disaster but the 40 million cubic meters of mud and mining waste that was released also damaged buildings and polluted water supplies in multiple villages and cities. In other news,

Rana Gruber (RANA, Buy) announced its annual report this morning, in a pretty uneventful release given that 4Q results have been out for a month. The company continues to see solid demand for its products in 2023, and is working with customers to prepare them for the upgrade in concentrate quality to Fe65% expected by 2025. The company paid out NOK 6/sh in dividends in 2023 and on our estimates, we believe dividends could reach about NOK 14/sh in 2023 on current iron ore prices.
The Godfather
21.03.2023 kl 15:32 2369


■ Iron ore continue to slip on steel curbs

- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange traded down 2.2% to $127.88/t this morning, while the most-traded April contract in Singapore is down 1.1% to $124.10/t at the time of writing.

Ongoing production curbs in steel hubs Tangshan and Handan imposed due to heavy air pollution forecasts are weighing on the market, adding to more long term fears from last week's rumor of a potential annual steel cut in China.

Reuters reported this morning that the country is weighing a ~2.5% cut, although some officials have reportedly commented that such a cut would be too high to support a recovery of the Chinese economy. A final decision is expected by June.

In 2021, monthly steel production dropped from 99Mt in May to 69Mt in November after authorities started to enforce curbs to secure a yearly decline in steel output. The curbs came after a period of high iron ore prices and multiple warnings to traders regarding excessive market speculation, somewhat similar to the warnings that are currently being dished out.
The Godfather
22.03.2023 kl 13:51 2289


■ Iron ore continues to slide on China fears

- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange traded down another 2.2% to $125.70/t this morning, while the most-traded April contract in Singapore is down 2.9% to $119.95/t at the time of writing.

Fears over a potential 2.5% annual production cut for crude steel in China is weighing on the market. In addition, steel hubs Tangshan and Handan imposed curbs to production as an emergency response to heavy air pollution.
The Godfather
23.03.2023 kl 13:08 2192


■ Iron ore slips on sluggish China demand

- The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Exchange traded down another 2.0% to $125.05/t this morning, while the most-traded April contract in Singapore is down 1.8% to $118.10/t at the time of writing.

According to Reuters, apparent demand for construction steel products slipped 6.1% week-on-week to 4.53 million tonnes in the week as of 23 March.
The Godfather
12.04.2023 kl 13:06 1846

Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): Rana Gruber produserte 434.000 tonn konsentrat i første kvartal 2023, sammenlignet med 406.000 tonn i første kvartal 2022.

Det fremgår av en kvartalsoppdatering fra selskapet onsdag.

Produksjonen av jernmalm i kvartalet var 1.135.000 tonn, mot 1.271.000 tonn i første kvartal 2022. Volum solgt av hematitt var 423.000 tonn i første kvartal 2023, som tilsvarer syv forsendelser. Endelig oppgjør av disse forsendelsene vil skje i april, mai, og juni.
13.04.2023 kl 16:33 1733

Kina senker jernmalmprisen 😱

Redigert 13.04.2023 kl 16:35 Du må logge inn for å svare
The Godfather
24.04.2023 kl 11:52 1447


Oslo (Infront TDN Direkt): DNB Markets nedjusterer sitt kursmål på Rana Gruber til 65 kroner fra 70 kroner og gjentar kjøpsanbefaling på aksjen, ifølge en oppdatering søndag.

Meglerhuset har nedjustert estimater for 2024-2025 med 27-30 prosent etter 12-14 prosent nedgang i jernmalmfutures.