ZENITH 2023
Denne tråden er stengt for nye innlegg.
31.08.2023 kl 16:08
Automatisk lukket grunnet trådens størrelse. (Beklager.)
Just wanted to wish everyone a happy Christmas and especially a successful and prosperous new year for all Zenith holders, I believe we have a very good year ahead of us with lots of profit. Enjoy
Redigert 26.12.2022 kl 12:10
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Gullhaugen
21.02.2023 kl 14:40
2948
Da skal vi opp 500 prosent nå. Noe kommer nå.Masse naken short...dette er en atombombe nå.
Redigert 21.02.2023 kl 14:43
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Mdg1
21.02.2023 kl 14:35
2962
Viking_I skrev Major licenses form Tunisia is Lost its official
Nå er ETAP operatør på feltene, så jeg tror du tolker den litt feil. Ville i så fall være rart om AC ikke informerte om dette. De skriver jo på hjemmesiden at ETAP forventer å få fornyet lisens i 20 nye år. Men, jeg tror ikke disse feltene vil kunne generere inntektene som løfter kursen til Zena. Med gode oljepriser kan de gi positiv kontantstrøm, men ikke noe å bli rike av
Redigert 21.02.2023 kl 14:37
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Viking_I
21.02.2023 kl 14:23
2991
Viking_I skrev read point 21 and 25 from 14/11/2022
Major licenses form Tunisia is Lost its official
Viking_I
21.02.2023 kl 14:12
2984
Aldara skrev What Viking, U can't be serious?????
read point 21 and 25 from 14/11/2022
Redigert 21.02.2023 kl 14:14
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SebRiberac
21.02.2023 kl 14:11
2955
en veldig god kjøpsmulighet i dag. Jeg kommer til å kjøpe mange aksjer i dag for å få ned gjennomsnittet mitt
MarketGunsling
21.02.2023 kl 14:08
2944
drunk12 - I would not worry too much about Yemen and the Houthi clan in the bigger picture. I have done a lot of investigation into the Yemeni asset by reading through every annual report from OMV since they acquired the asset back in 2007. Stoppages of this sort are a fairly regular occurrence in that part of the world . Over the course of the 14 years (2007-2021) that OMV owned the license, there were two years where there was no production and 2-4 years where they was only limited production. However, the license is so prolific that the time when it was producing more than made up for it.
Over the course of this 14 year period Block S2 produced over 47 million barrels of oil of which 18.5 million barrels was net to OMV. This equates to 3,620 bopd produced net to OMV over the 14 years despite the license producing nothing at all in 2016-2017 and only having intermittent production for a number of other years.
18.5 million barrels of oil at the oil price of $83 and the cost base of $28 per barrel means that OMV have made over $1 billion dollars net revenue out of that asset during the 14 years they have owned it, even with all of the issues that they had with the territory. We do not need to worry about Yemen if ew get hold of it, we just need to worry about actually getting hold of it in the first place - because if we do it will make Zenith a fortune.
Over the course of this 14 year period Block S2 produced over 47 million barrels of oil of which 18.5 million barrels was net to OMV. This equates to 3,620 bopd produced net to OMV over the 14 years despite the license producing nothing at all in 2016-2017 and only having intermittent production for a number of other years.
18.5 million barrels of oil at the oil price of $83 and the cost base of $28 per barrel means that OMV have made over $1 billion dollars net revenue out of that asset during the 14 years they have owned it, even with all of the issues that they had with the territory. We do not need to worry about Yemen if ew get hold of it, we just need to worry about actually getting hold of it in the first place - because if we do it will make Zenith a fortune.
Skuffelse ja men påstander om panikk virker overdrevet..
Antall eiere av Zenith aksjer hos Nordnet viser fortsatt ingen større endring ..
Mere info hva som skjer i Tunisia vil være nyttig ..
Antall eiere av Zenith aksjer hos Nordnet viser fortsatt ingen større endring ..
Mere info hva som skjer i Tunisia vil være nyttig ..
futureistoday
21.02.2023 kl 14:05
2868
Hallo folkens, sjekk ut avisartikkel fra yemen lagt ut på Facebook forumet, der fremkommer det at yemen dealen har blitt gjort og hverken oljeminister eller regjering har kommet med innvendinger. Ser ut som Jemen er i boks. Sjekk selv i link lagt ut på zenith forum på face😃
Viking_I
21.02.2023 kl 14:00
2839
just found out Company need to answer seriously now.
https://www.energiemines.gov.tn/fileadmin/docs-u1/liste_de_Concessions_d_exploitation_%C3%A0_fin_2022.pdf
Sid El khilani and EZZ licenses given to ETAP until 2042 its official website
https://www.energiemines.gov.tn/fileadmin/docs-u1/liste_de_Concessions_d_exploitation_%C3%A0_fin_2022.pdf
Sid El khilani and EZZ licenses given to ETAP until 2042 its official website
Redigert 21.02.2023 kl 14:04
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MarketGunsling
21.02.2023 kl 13:52
2879
There is a lot of panic on the forums at the moment. I understand that there is disappointment that we have lost Tilapia and this was the asset that many people brought into the company for. But at that time Tilapia was the only major asset that the company was applying for and now we have Benin and Yemen which are potentially much stronger assets than Tilapia (especially Yemen).
What I really don’t understand is why people are getting so upset about Tunisia when it seems mostly based on rumours being posted by AGEOS on the UK forums. AGEOS has made some good posts in the past but his recent track record has been patchy to say the least. He produced a whole post of research to claim that Olive Energy and FrcGeo were completely different companies to support his argument that Zenith should have used FracGeo technologies in their Tilapia 2 bid. However, a more thorough examination of the data available would have FracGeo and Olive Energy were founded and owned by the same man: (https://www.linkedin.com/in/ahmed-ouenes-3728341/details/experience/) you
Hi latest theory that Zenith have lost Ezzaouia has a degree of plausibility but once again it does not stand up to scrutiny. At the most simple level, if Zenith had lost Ezzaouia of SLK then they would have been obliged by stock exchange rules to announce this and yet they have not. They released the news about Tilaipia promptly on Friday once rumours started swirling on Thursday and the evidence that AGEOS proposes has been around since the end of 2022 so if there was any truth to it then it would certainly have come out now.
As has been mentioned here by drunk12 the ETAP website still shows ECUMED (Zenith) to have the same share of Ezzaouia as they always did. Given this evidence and the absence of any RNS from the company I think that it is obvious to assume that, despite the rumours, there is no change in the status of our Tunisian assets at the moment.
People need to be calm. Just because we did not get the Tilapia 2 license it does not mean that everything else is going wrong with the company.
What I really don’t understand is why people are getting so upset about Tunisia when it seems mostly based on rumours being posted by AGEOS on the UK forums. AGEOS has made some good posts in the past but his recent track record has been patchy to say the least. He produced a whole post of research to claim that Olive Energy and FrcGeo were completely different companies to support his argument that Zenith should have used FracGeo technologies in their Tilapia 2 bid. However, a more thorough examination of the data available would have FracGeo and Olive Energy were founded and owned by the same man: (https://www.linkedin.com/in/ahmed-ouenes-3728341/details/experience/) you
Hi latest theory that Zenith have lost Ezzaouia has a degree of plausibility but once again it does not stand up to scrutiny. At the most simple level, if Zenith had lost Ezzaouia of SLK then they would have been obliged by stock exchange rules to announce this and yet they have not. They released the news about Tilaipia promptly on Friday once rumours started swirling on Thursday and the evidence that AGEOS proposes has been around since the end of 2022 so if there was any truth to it then it would certainly have come out now.
As has been mentioned here by drunk12 the ETAP website still shows ECUMED (Zenith) to have the same share of Ezzaouia as they always did. Given this evidence and the absence of any RNS from the company I think that it is obvious to assume that, despite the rumours, there is no change in the status of our Tunisian assets at the moment.
People need to be calm. Just because we did not get the Tilapia 2 license it does not mean that everything else is going wrong with the company.
Gullhaugen
21.02.2023 kl 13:45
2904
Hehe har sendt 5 🤪 Det er bare å dundre på med eposter med disse IR folka på kopi slik at de ser hvor forbanna aksjonærene er nå.
Yemen er ikke stort bedre ....
Pr idag er det ikke eksport av olje fra Yemen p.g.a Houthi klanen ..
Ref -- https://www.energyintel.com/00000186-6012-de95-a7ae-6336ba2f0000
Når dette kommer igang vet ingen.
AC var i en tidligere børsmelding for optimistisk om forholdene i Yemen.
Det ville ta kaka om Zenith får napp i Yemen men ikke får sendt olje ut ...
Pr idag er det ikke eksport av olje fra Yemen p.g.a Houthi klanen ..
Ref -- https://www.energyintel.com/00000186-6012-de95-a7ae-6336ba2f0000
Når dette kommer igang vet ingen.
AC var i en tidligere børsmelding for optimistisk om forholdene i Yemen.
Det ville ta kaka om Zenith får napp i Yemen men ikke får sendt olje ut ...
Viking_I
21.02.2023 kl 13:28
2948
it is more stressful now, AC should come out and confirm Tunisia SLK and EZZ as Robbana and El Bibane is confirm with Zenith, as Benin and Yemen still in process.
kaunis
21.02.2023 kl 13:28
2942
Jeg ble tidligere sterkt kritisert på en av trådene her inne, da jeg beskrev det jeg mente var usikkerheten med kameratskap og penger under bordet, altså kriminelle handlinger i Kongo. Borgerkriger og annen fanskap har det vært så mye av opp gjennom årene og jeg har fulgt litt med på hva som har foregått. Vi har no fått beviset på at min frykt ikke var ubegrunnet og jeg fikk strøket et innlegg fra adm. da jeg beskrev dette. At adm ikke har så god historisk kunnskap om mange land som kan beskrives med kraftige utrykk som vi her hjemme ikke bruker får stå for deres regning , men den beskrivelsen jeg har gitt har vi bittert fått erfare no. Penger under bordet og ren kriminalitet har tatt fra oss Tilapia 2. De har heller ikke betalt tilbake Zenits innbetalte beløp for Tilapia og de får vi heller ikke se mere til, og ikke informert om simpelheten de har forestått.
Jeg har heller ikke solgt meg ut ...
Tap på papiret ? Ja men det er knapt merkbart.
Tilapia 2 ... Gullkalven som skulle lede oss til det lovede land ......
Den ligger nå knust som nevnt i annen bok ...
Kansje ikke så rart at flere har gått lei og selger seg ned ...
Det kan bli napp i Yemen men jeg er i tvil ...
Det blir kansje noe mere Benin men det vil ta tid ...
Hva som egentlig skjer i Tunisia er jeg mest nysjerrig på ....
Tap på papiret ? Ja men det er knapt merkbart.
Tilapia 2 ... Gullkalven som skulle lede oss til det lovede land ......
Den ligger nå knust som nevnt i annen bok ...
Kansje ikke så rart at flere har gått lei og selger seg ned ...
Det kan bli napp i Yemen men jeg er i tvil ...
Det blir kansje noe mere Benin men det vil ta tid ...
Hva som egentlig skjer i Tunisia er jeg mest nysjerrig på ....
keisam
21.02.2023 kl 13:20
2982
Nå har vi vært nedom 0,06 som tidligere antydet. Over 100 millioner aksjer har byttet hender de siste dagene og tiden for annen kursutvikling er tilstede. NB: Zenith er et bittelite selskap som prøver på noe større, kjempehøy risiko, får lite fornuftig informasjon fra selskapet og ting tar tid. Hvis du er utålmodig og ikke liker store svingninger i kursen, kjøp Equinor.
Fluefiskeren
21.02.2023 kl 12:59
3087
Det er noe som heter tredagersregelen. Til forskjell fra de fleste børsfloskler har denne noe for seg. Altså vil kursen stabilisere seg i morgen.
Ikke skyt meg hvis det er feil😊
Ikke skyt meg hvis det er feil😊
kim2002
21.02.2023 kl 12:59
3018
Jeg snitter ned og har tradet flere mill solgt 0.02 øre mer enn kjøpt. Så får vi se hvor dette ender :)
Andpaal71
21.02.2023 kl 12:58
2990
uff! Kursen burde jo ikke være. Ble litt forelsket i denne og ikke solgt ut!
Allroad18
21.02.2023 kl 12:53
3016
Nå begynner det å bli dårlig stemning- stort papirtap for svært mange for tiden. Nyheten om Tilapia burde vel vært tatt ut nå? Vil den bare fortsette nedover uten grunn fordi mange er lei og nervøse? Vi har fått nok nå!! Større og større volum på stadig nedadgående kurs, det er et dårlig tegn. Og som jeg har sagt før, risikoen er altfor høy til å snitte ned.
JobPeterson
20.02.2023 kl 22:29
3318
If they land Yemen I’m expecting 400% alone that is a huge asset that will make any small cap oiler rich
futureistoday
20.02.2023 kl 22:05
3401
Har sendt Mail flere ganger, men får ikke svar. Det gjelder de fleste som har prøvd og kontakte dem. Men gjerne gi det ett forsøk du og😊
Gullhaugen
20.02.2023 kl 22:01
3389
Nå ble det mye negative synsinger. Jeg synes du skal sende en epost til zena med.kopi til de nye IR folka. List opp alle spørsmål .
futureistoday
20.02.2023 kl 21:35
3458
De vet nå om de har mistet ett felt eller ikke, skal jo bokføres daglig produksjon som skal deles. Men er mer utrygt om selskapet deler den infoen med sine eiere da…de må komme på banen fortere enn ja… her trengs det oppklaring hva faktisk status er i Tunisia og veien videre.
Ifølge ETAP sine nettsider så har de fortsatt 55% av Ezzouia og EUCMED (Zenith) 45%
Zenith kan ha mist SLK og Ezzouia uten å ha fått besjed ...
Zenith kan ha mist SLK og Ezzouia uten å ha fått besjed ...
Redigert 20.02.2023 kl 21:29
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olje
20.02.2023 kl 19:51
3602
Leverer en rekke større avtaler??, om de bare klarer å lande Benin så tipper jeg den går mer enn 200% bare på den, ellers enig i det du skriver.
Hektor
20.02.2023 kl 19:35
3615
Hadde vi ikke denne diskusjonen i slutten av desember 100 prosent ETAP.
Exploration 40 kvadrat kilometer er vell et ganske stort område. Har vell direkte ikke noe med Zenith Energy å gjøre. Exploration/Concession er vell to forskjellige ting?
Exploration 40 kvadrat kilometer er vell et ganske stort område. Har vell direkte ikke noe med Zenith Energy å gjøre. Exploration/Concession er vell to forskjellige ting?
Du finner info på
Ref --- http://www.etap.com.tn/fileadmin/carte/Carte_hydrocarbures2022-A3.pdf
Men ETAP sin nettsider er ikke oppdatert.
Det er en fordel om du behersker fransk eller arabisk .....
Ref --- http://www.etap.com.tn/fileadmin/carte/Carte_hydrocarbures2022-A3.pdf
Men ETAP sin nettsider er ikke oppdatert.
Det er en fordel om du behersker fransk eller arabisk .....
Hektor
20.02.2023 kl 18:39
3743
Hvor ser du info om 24.12.22?
SLK:
http://www.etap.com.tn/index.php?id=1160&fiche=6
EZZAOUIA:
http://www.etap.com.tn/index.php?id=1160&fiche=7
SLK:
http://www.etap.com.tn/index.php?id=1160&fiche=6
EZZAOUIA:
http://www.etap.com.tn/index.php?id=1160&fiche=7
Tunisia er ikke helt tapt selv om Zenith kan ha mistet SLK
Ryktene rundt Ezzioua er uavklart ...
Sandkassa Robbana og fiskedammen EL Bibane tilhører Zenith ...
Zenith er stolt sponsor av en fotball klubb i Zarzis
Å bli sponsor av en lokal fotball klubb i Zaris har ingen mening hvis
Tunisia er tapt ......
Ryktene rundt Ezzioua er uavklart ...
Sandkassa Robbana og fiskedammen EL Bibane tilhører Zenith ...
Zenith er stolt sponsor av en fotball klubb i Zarzis
Å bli sponsor av en lokal fotball klubb i Zaris har ingen mening hvis
Tunisia er tapt ......
SørenE
20.02.2023 kl 17:53
3832
Hej Norge
OOps16 -- hu-ha ser ud til at Tunesien er også tabt, consecionen ser ud til at være gået til andre 24.12.22
Vi har brug for RSN og IC som blev lovet uge 6 -- Vi investorer lever i totalt uvidentid, kun insider ser ud til at få valid information.
Hvis det er sandt at Tunisien er tabt -- så er det krogen på døren.
Dansken
OOps16 -- hu-ha ser ud til at Tunesien er også tabt, consecionen ser ud til at være gået til andre 24.12.22
Vi har brug for RSN og IC som blev lovet uge 6 -- Vi investorer lever i totalt uvidentid, kun insider ser ud til at få valid information.
Hvis det er sandt at Tunisien er tabt -- så er det krogen på døren.
Dansken
futureistoday
20.02.2023 kl 16:36
4030
Regelen har jo vært at hører vi ikke noe så er det dårlig nytt, jeg vil gjerne også ha svar på alt det du lister opp. Det som bekymrer meg mest, er om olja faktisk ligger usolgt eller om den er borte vekk. For i zenith’s sedvanlige stil burde det jo ha blitt med i en børsmelding forlengst hvis de virkelig hadde 200K++ fat stående på lager. Tilsvarer jo mer enn hele mcap’en pdd. Og ser man gjennom betaling av gjeld og tar med løpende utgifter så er ikke den italienske strøm/gass inntekten nok til og dekke det etter hva jeg klarer se. Så vil anta det er oljen som finansierer mye her og. Hadde vært VELDIG bra og fått en oppdatering på alt du nevner slik det ikke er synsing av hva de faktisk har av produksjon og lager pdd.
oops16
20.02.2023 kl 16:35
4027
Fra AGEOS UK
!Keep up your comprehensive work but I suggest you dig deeper re Tunisia especially into the recently announced “Ezzaouia New Concession” and the Sidi El Kilani 22.5% former CNAOG interest for which the published “Concession Expiry Date” was 24.12.2022 ref page 131 “Secrets of Hydrocarbon Contracts in Tunisia” www.atcp.org.tn click on publications. Best of luck with your investment here."
Secrets of Hydrocarbon Contracts in Tunisia;
https://atcp.org.tn/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Secrets-of-hydrocarbon-contracts.pdf
!Keep up your comprehensive work but I suggest you dig deeper re Tunisia especially into the recently announced “Ezzaouia New Concession” and the Sidi El Kilani 22.5% former CNAOG interest for which the published “Concession Expiry Date” was 24.12.2022 ref page 131 “Secrets of Hydrocarbon Contracts in Tunisia” www.atcp.org.tn click on publications. Best of luck with your investment here."
Secrets of Hydrocarbon Contracts in Tunisia;
https://atcp.org.tn/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Secrets-of-hydrocarbon-contracts.pdf
Zenith har blitt sponsor i ett lokalt fotball lag i Tunisia ...
I praksis kom den nyheten samtidig med at de fikk rødt kort i Congo ..
Kansje første tegn på økt aktivitet i Tunisia ?
Det er litt snodig at Zenith ikke er mere åpne om hva som skjer i Tunisia.
Status på SLK lisens ?
Hva skjedde med oppgraderingen av EZZ-18?
Hvorfor ble ikke ROB-3 påbegynt ?
Hvorfor ligger ligger olja usolgt ?
Hva skjer med El Bibane ?
I praksis kom den nyheten samtidig med at de fikk rødt kort i Congo ..
Kansje første tegn på økt aktivitet i Tunisia ?
Det er litt snodig at Zenith ikke er mere åpne om hva som skjer i Tunisia.
Status på SLK lisens ?
Hva skjedde med oppgraderingen av EZZ-18?
Hvorfor ble ikke ROB-3 påbegynt ?
Hvorfor ligger ligger olja usolgt ?
Hva skjer med El Bibane ?
Redigert 20.02.2023 kl 16:32
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Herman*
20.02.2023 kl 16:04
4141
MarketGunsling: I am no longer an "expert" on Zena as I have been out for a while, but as far as I remember, the company confirmed in a prospectus related to a the issue of some bonds, that they would not drill any new wells on Tilapia before they had recuperated the outstanding amount from the local authorities. This could have been what cost them their whole license. If they had landed Tilapia, they could have raised enough money to finance a drilling program and then in addition received the 5.3 million over time. My point about focusing on one asset, was not that it is a good idea to only have on asset....but one needs to start somewhere. Going after several assets at the same time without having a financial or operational track record, will just end bad almost every time. Why have they not made sure their operations in Tunisia have been a great success? Many talk about the great cashflow, but my bet is that there will hardly be a profit at all in 2022. They seem to use extreme amounts for administrative costs. If I was a shareholder, I would advice (read: Demand) that the company find projects that are of a size and complexity that success is almost guaranteed. Then they can be part of the big boys a little bit later.
Redigert 20.02.2023 kl 18:48
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Gullhaugen
20.02.2023 kl 15:42
4229
Solgt Dltx aksjene mine i dag og hev alt av proffit inn i Zena. Jeg tror at AC nå lander Benin og Yemen. Nå er inngangen amazing langt under 10 øre.. Ikke glem at vi har en oljepris på 85 dollar fatet. Kortere prosesser fører ofte til mål.
Redigert 20.02.2023 kl 15:55
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MarketGunsling
20.02.2023 kl 15:00
4306
In the light of the failure to land Tilapia it is easy to just critique the company and say that they should have gone all-in to land that one asset, but that is to overlook the complexities of operating in a country like Congo, where bribery and corruption is a way of life.
Short of paying bribes, I struggle to see what more Zenith could have done to get the Tilapia del over the line. They passed the IPU (the Congolese test of financial and operational capacity to operate Tilapia) they employed a number of Congolese people, including Donatien Mpika as country manager and they did not chase the Congolese for the $5.3 million payment that was due to them. However, the Congolese authourities did not even bother to inform Zenith that they had granted the license to somebody else.
I am genuinely interested in what else people think that they could realistically have done to win the asset?
I think that it is undeniable that the company pursuing other assets in Yemen and Benin is clearly a good thing not a bad thing. Imagine if they had bet everything on Tilapia and still not been given the license due to corruption of political chicanery? The company would be in a huge mess.
As it is, it is clearly not good to have lost the T2 asset but we still have Yemen and Benin in play as well as the revenue from Tunisia and Italy coming in. We should certainly be disappointed that this acquisition has not come off, but as I have said before we only need one of the significant assets to come off for there to be a complete transformation in the outlook for the company.
Rather than focus everything on a single asset, I think that the company are doing exactly the right thing in spreading out their risk and not betting everything on one roll of a roulete wheel. Instead of narrowing down the options to a single asset, I would be happier if they were able to bring another two or three similar transformation assets to the table and focus equally on each one.
Fundamentally nothing has changed from July when I wrote the following:
“As far as I am concerned at the moment Zenith have developed for an almost bust company when they came out of Azerbaijan to once that has built a very stable business with good cash flow revenues and a stable foundation to build up to become a much bigger operation. However, they need to get a marquee acquisition with significant development potential in order to move on from being a $17 million market cap company to a $100+ million market cap company. Until they announce the acquisition of such an asset I think the share price will remain roughly where it is. It may go up or down by 20% but there will be no major movement, However, if they are able to announce Tilapia or a Tilapia-style acquisition then I believe that the revenue base they have built in Tunisia and Italy will come into its own. They will be able to use debt to fund development and the company will instantly be massively re-rated by the market. This is why I am not only holding on to my current shares but continuing to acquire at these current prices.”
I was not quite right. We have lost Tilapia and the share price has gone down by 25% not 20%. But to me this is a market over-reaction. The share price will recover over time as the market realises that Tilapia is not the end of the world and as soon as we acquire a significant asset the share price will fly anyway.
Zenith did not put all their eggs in one basket and it is precisely for this reason that the share price has only reduced by 25% when the T2 license was lost. Imagine what would have happened if T2 had been the only option that we were pursuing.
Short of paying bribes, I struggle to see what more Zenith could have done to get the Tilapia del over the line. They passed the IPU (the Congolese test of financial and operational capacity to operate Tilapia) they employed a number of Congolese people, including Donatien Mpika as country manager and they did not chase the Congolese for the $5.3 million payment that was due to them. However, the Congolese authourities did not even bother to inform Zenith that they had granted the license to somebody else.
I am genuinely interested in what else people think that they could realistically have done to win the asset?
I think that it is undeniable that the company pursuing other assets in Yemen and Benin is clearly a good thing not a bad thing. Imagine if they had bet everything on Tilapia and still not been given the license due to corruption of political chicanery? The company would be in a huge mess.
As it is, it is clearly not good to have lost the T2 asset but we still have Yemen and Benin in play as well as the revenue from Tunisia and Italy coming in. We should certainly be disappointed that this acquisition has not come off, but as I have said before we only need one of the significant assets to come off for there to be a complete transformation in the outlook for the company.
Rather than focus everything on a single asset, I think that the company are doing exactly the right thing in spreading out their risk and not betting everything on one roll of a roulete wheel. Instead of narrowing down the options to a single asset, I would be happier if they were able to bring another two or three similar transformation assets to the table and focus equally on each one.
Fundamentally nothing has changed from July when I wrote the following:
“As far as I am concerned at the moment Zenith have developed for an almost bust company when they came out of Azerbaijan to once that has built a very stable business with good cash flow revenues and a stable foundation to build up to become a much bigger operation. However, they need to get a marquee acquisition with significant development potential in order to move on from being a $17 million market cap company to a $100+ million market cap company. Until they announce the acquisition of such an asset I think the share price will remain roughly where it is. It may go up or down by 20% but there will be no major movement, However, if they are able to announce Tilapia or a Tilapia-style acquisition then I believe that the revenue base they have built in Tunisia and Italy will come into its own. They will be able to use debt to fund development and the company will instantly be massively re-rated by the market. This is why I am not only holding on to my current shares but continuing to acquire at these current prices.”
I was not quite right. We have lost Tilapia and the share price has gone down by 25% not 20%. But to me this is a market over-reaction. The share price will recover over time as the market realises that Tilapia is not the end of the world and as soon as we acquire a significant asset the share price will fly anyway.
Zenith did not put all their eggs in one basket and it is precisely for this reason that the share price has only reduced by 25% when the T2 license was lost. Imagine what would have happened if T2 had been the only option that we were pursuing.