Dette bare beviser at du ikke skjønner det fundamentale i tankmarkedet og hva som skjer når ratene virkelig tar av. Potensialet i FRO aksjen er fortsatt flerdobbling med mindre noe geopolitisk kommer og ødelegger.

Nå blir vi få ferre skip i grå flåten, ingen av gamle holker eller uten klassifisering og/eller forsikring får anløpe U.S.
VLCC rally from US Gulf expected despite election uncertainty

Dozens of the largest crude carriers are ballasting to the US to tap into promising rates

Analysts expect the improvement in fortunes for the largest crude carriers from the US to continue into 2024.

Strong US production combined with refinery maintenance has pushed oil for export and supported crude tanker rates.

A large number of tankers have decided to ballast from the East to try to cash in on the attractive rates this month,

according to shipbroker Gibson.

More than 50 VLCCs are heading to US ports over the next three months, the most in at least six years,

Bloomberg reported.

VLCC rates have been hit by production cuts led by Saudi Arabia’s 1m barrels per day (bpd), which it confirmed

will continue until the end of the year.

Despite that, “VLCCs … have also seen a sizeable uplift in earnings, albeit perhaps not as impressive as the one

experienced by smaller segments”, said Gibsons in a note.The sector had been hit by a large number of failed

fixtures which added to tonnage availability. But Gibson expects fixtures from the US Gulf to China to pay around

$10.2m in the current market.

The Baltic Exchange listed time charter equivalent earnings on the US to China route on Friday at $44,879 per day,

worth just more than $10m.

The US is set to export more than 4m bpd of crude for the fourth consecutive month in November, the first time it

will have done so, according to Kpler data. November forecasts suggest that US seaborne exports will be close to the

4.47m bpd record month in May.

The earnings are down slightly from the start of the month on the route but the best rates since June, its figures showed.

The tanker team at Poten & Partners said the prospects for 2024 and beyond for trades from the US Gulf are generally bullish.

The drought affecting the Panama Canal will add tonne-miles to the increasing flow from Venezuela, cutting off a

shortcut to Asia.

But elections due in Mexico, Venezuela and the US next year add an element of uncertainty.

“Who will win these races can have a big impact on the oil markets, which potentially will have implications for

tankers as well,” said Poten

Virker som det er litt uvanlig at status er "on subs" mer enn en uke? Jo lenger tid det går så øker gjerne sjansen da for "failed"?
https://app.tankersinternational.com

Frontline (NYSE:FRO) is one of the largest oil tanker companies in the world, with a fleet of 65 vessels that transport crude oil and refined products across the globe. The company benefits from the high demand for oil transportation, as well as the low operating costs of its modern and fuel-efficient ships. Moreover, as the Middle Eastern oil producers have largely cut production, oil tankers have found themselves increasingly traveling across to the Atlantic Ocean to ship crude from Brazil, the United States, and Guyana to countries in Asia. These longer distances have pushed up “ton-miles,” or the amount of crude shipped and the distance, and as a result, revenue.

InvestorPlace - Stock Market News, Stock Advice & Trading Tips

Frontline has a solid balance sheet with more than $500 million in cash and liquid short-term investments. The company’s generous dividend, with a yield of 5.4%, could also be attractive for long-term holding income investors

Ratene har gått i taket den siste tiden p g a Israel/Hamas-krigen, nå prøver Hizbollah at de-eskalere; de vil ikke utvide krigen. Iran sitter også stille. Jeg tror ratene kommer ned en del eller rett markant de neste ukene? Da "Failer" man gjerne?

Vel. Front Discovery ble fixed da! Ikke sikkert det betyr så mye. Men bedre enn failed må det jo være! :-)
https://app.tankersinternational.com/fixtures/ba41de8f-f3aa-4ba3-92b1-d99a273c7c95

Estimat fra MarketWatch er snitt $ 0,46 (lav 0,31 høy 0,57) https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fro/analystestimates

Resultatet kommer tirsdag 21. november.

Beklager det er gogl.

‘Shot across the bow’ as US fires off letters to tanker players over Russia price cap

Some 30 companies have been sent letters from Ofac over Western sanctions

US authorities have issued letters to an array of shipping companies in what shipping

industry sources see as an effort to put pressure on the tanker sector over the price

cap on Russian oil.

Tanker market sources said the letters have been received by more than 30 shipowners and managers in the

tanker space.The US Treasury department’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (Ofac) sent the letters mostly to

Greek companies trading in the crude and fuel oil trades impacted by the price cap.

It is believed that the managers are being asked to demonstrate the due diligence steps they have

undertaken in verifying compliance with the price cap rules.

One source said the enforcement had created anxiety among charterers who were wary about having

cargoes tied up over the course of months in a scenario similar to that faced by the 158,600-dwt tanker

Suez Rajan (built 2011), an Empire Navigation-controlled ship that was seized by US authorities in

connection with Iranian sanctions.

A source who has seen the letters told Reuters that the Treasury department sent letters to ship

management companies of 100 vessels suspected of violating the sanctions, which allow vessels to

carry Russian crude and oil products if they are sold below the price cap.A Treasury department

spokesperson declined to comment on its investigations or enforcement actions.

“Treasury is committed to enforcing the price cap and reducing Russia’s resources for its war against

Ukraine,” the person said.Reports of the Ofac missives come as questions remain over the level of due diligence

that the Treasury department expects from shipping under the price cap, which requires shipowners and

operators to have an attestation from their customers that Russian oil transported by their vessels has changed

hands under the limit.

Though maritime lawyers who deal with sanctions cases told TradeWinds they had not seen the letters or heard

that their clients had received them, they said there has not been significant enforcement of the price cap.

One lawyer said it would be difficult for the US government to know at what price Russian oil was sold.“It might

just be a warning shot across the bow,” he said.

But in October, Ofac released recommendations from the coalition of countries that adopted the price cap

outlining best practices for maritime companies to stay within the rules of the price cap.The agency suggested

that companies require “significantly capitalised” protection and indemnity insurance, as well as using ships

that are classed by a member of the International Association of Classification Societies.Companies should

“vigorously monitor” automatic information system tracking data, as well as high-risk ship-to-ship transfers.

And they should check data on freight, customs, insurance and other costs to ensure they are not being

bundled in a way to conceal that oil was sold above the oil cap.

“The billing of commercially unreasonable or opaque shipping and ancillary costs should be viewed as a sign

of potential price cap evasion,” Ofac said.

The agency also recommended “heightened due diligence” for ships that undergo administrative changes like

re-flagging or engage in opaque practices.

And companies should report ships that trigger concerns, Ofac said

220-tallet nærmer seg

Jeg ser det, 227 på Nyse nå. Kanskje kommer vi enda lenger ned? 200? Får vel supplere lite i så fall.

Er nok i hovedsak dollardrevet dette fallet nå nettopp.
Og sånn sett, hva i allverden skjer der? Valutashortere som dekker seg inn?

Peer DHT +0,83%
Av en eller annen grunn tror jeg ikke OSE gis muligheten til kjøp på 227 imorgen... 😅
Hyggelig at krona styrker seg da! Måtte det vare...

Når mange nok tror kursen skal videre ned skjer det motsatte.

Nordan American Shipping - Suesmax -

Vessel fixed to International Oil Major for a voyage of more than 30 days. The Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) is about $40,000/day.

Vessel fixed to a Major Oil Trader for a voyage of more than 30 days. The TCE is about $75,000/day.

Vessel fixed to a European Oil Major for a voyage of more than 40 days. The TCE is about $50,000/day.

Vessel fixed to an International Oil Major for a voyage of about 35 days. The TCE is about $55,000/day.

Vessel fixed to an Oil Company for a short voyage of about 10 days. The TCE is about $65,000/day.

Vessel fixed to an Oil Company for a short voyage of about 10 days. The TCE is about $90,000/day.

Not bad

Det er bra at krona er svak, da får en flere kroner når utbytte kommer.

Laveste dollar på over en måned. Det varer gjerne ikke helt til børsåpning imorgen…😅
Dollarkurs eller ei.
+10 cent > ny HOD

Nei skulle du sett ibyx! 233,91 😅
Og det uten dollarløft. Det kan bli tøft imorgen.
Drømmen om 220...

Den stengte på 21,50 som er 238kr

Eller 232 med dagens dollarkurs

har dollar falt til 6,1395 kr pr dollar?

Når man ønsker seg FRO sterkt nok er det "sky no limit"! 😅

Rettet

https://twitter.com/ed_fin/status/1724682719714517152 🤔

235 nå, 350 neste.

Mye gammelt nytt, men mer utdypene her.

Wavelength: Why tanker owners face Russian crude crackdown

Sanctions web may be full of holes but anyone snared could suffer severe penalties
Tanker owners carrying crude and products for Russia are to come under the cosh amid a planned new crackdown by the US and Europe over alleged sanctions busting.

Letters have gone out from Washington to more than 30 ship operators of different nationalities — but mainly Greek — demanding proof that they have not been carrying Siberian crude priced above $60 per barrel.
European political leaders have been meeting behind the scenes to discuss how they can make the oil price cap sanctions on the so-called dark fleet and other vessels more effective in future.

Fuel oil trades are also being targeted by the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, known as Ofac, sending shivers through a chartering community that is fearful its ships might be held up in future.

The clampdown comes amid reports that the US-led price cap aimed at weakening Kremlin revenues and, therefore, war efforts in Ukraine are being almost completely circumvented.

A senior European government official told the Financial Times that “almost none” of the shipments of Russian seaborne crude last month was executed below the $60 limit imposed by the US and G7 countries.
These comments support official — though often disputed — statistics from Moscow, which claim that the average price obtained by Russian crude sellers was above $80 in October.

In a bid to turn this around, G7 countries have been looking at trying to tighten their restrictions. The UK has just imposed sanctions on Dubai-based oil trader Paramount Energy & Commodities for allegedly deploying “deceptive shipping practices”.

Ofac wants to know from tanker owners what kind of due diligence was done on a fleet of nearly 100 vessels believed to have carried Russian crude above the agreed price cap.

It has already urged charterers to only use vessels registered with members of the blue-chip International Association of Classification Societies.

It wants tanker users to double-check that freight and customer costs are not being bundled together to cheat on the price cap.

Toughening up
The letters sent out from Ofac — about which the Treasury has not commented — appear to herald a harder line by Washington that spells jeopardy for tanker owners carrying Russian exports.

Most industry experts say the US had been somewhat lax about the issue, although two vessels and their owners were put on an Ofac blacklist last month and certainly more can be expected to follow.

Washington and the West have been distracted.

The terrorist attack on Israel followed by the 10,000 civilian deaths in the retaliatory and ongoing bombardment of Gaza has swung attention from the Black Sea to the Middle East Gulf.

Angeliki Frangou, chief executive of Navios Maritime Partners, said this week that soaring US government debt, unprecedented monetary policy, economic woes in China coupled with war in Ukraine and Gaza made this “one of the most dangerous times in history”.

She said the big threat posed by Palestine was that conflict extended outwards into the wider Middle East, putting at risk the 40% of world oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Takeshi Hashimoto, Frangou’s counterpart at Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines, said he was more concerned about geopolitical risk than he was about uncertainty over the economies of the US and China next year. And yet more oil is needed than ever. On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency upgraded its oil demand growth expectations for 2023 by 2.4m barrels per day to reach a record 102m bpd.

Leaky sieve
The US is now said to be pumping 19.8m bpd — much higher than its largest rivals Saudi Arabia and Russia, which are both holding back export volumes to keep the price up.
The increased long-haul routes needed to move oil from the US have been boosting tanker freight rates, but the IEA is still expecting a slight reduction in oil demand in 2024 to less than 1m extra bpd.

The agency said Russia was having to pay more for its shipping — up to 35% more in freight costs from the Baltic to India during October — but higher export volumes are making up for any lost Kremlin revenues.

Sanctions may often seem as effective as a leaky sieve, but tanker owners and charterers moving Russian crude and products are clearly now under greater threat of blacklist and seizure

Stort volum 13.30 NOK 235 til 239 .....

Pre Market NYSE
22.010
+0.510
(+2.37%)

Tidbits

Measures up for debate also include tighter checks on Russia-linked vessels passing through Danish waters, the newspaper reported on Wednesday, as well as closer scrutiny of registries that provide flag services for shadow fleet vessels.

Denmark would be given the task of checking tankers passing the Danish straits without Western insurance on environmental grounds, three people with knowledge of the latest EU talks told the newspaper. It said about 60% of Russia’s total seaborne exports cross the straits.

The price cap breaches have forced Western insurers out of Russian trades, sparking concerns that alternative providers could not cover damages in the event of a serious oil spill.

Although ships cannot be halted in international waters, shipbroker BRS highlighted in January how shadow tankers could come under closer scrutiny lifting barrels from Baltic and Black Sea ports as they would have to pass through territorial waters via the Danish or Bosphorus straits.

* * A 165-year convention has ruled that the straits allow for freedom of passage for all shipping. But maritime laws provide scope for action if there is a threat of coastal damage. * * *

Holder seg i pluss der borte, men når dollaren stuper...
233,75 NOK
OSE LOD 233,05

235,54 nå med stupende $

Olympic Luna (2017 - Modern Scrubber) On Subs (Estimated Voyage CII: C 🟡) WAfr/East ExxonMobil Onassis (TCE: RV USD 65K @ 62 days / Actual USD 56K @ 68 days)

På høyde med OETs siste?
https://app.tankersinternational.com/fixtures/ff29019b-8b46-4d0e-a27a-208f54668c99

Ratene har begynt å krype oppover igjen. Også Baltic indexen har vært i positivt landskap siste par dagene.

Ifølge Clarksons Securities oppnår suezmax-ene - råoljetankere på rundt 160.000 dødvekttonn - nå en timecharterrate på 52.500 dollar for nye oppdrag i spotmarkedet. Såkalte eco-skip bygd etter 2015 får noe bedre betalt; rundt 56.300 dollar.

For nyere VLCC-ere - råoljetankere på 300.000 dødvekttonn - ligger inntjeningen i øyeblikket på 66.700 dollar dagen, ifølge meglerhuset.

ai ai ai! 230,05 NOK
Vi skuer mot 220!
Hadde det ikke vært for denne hersens dollarkursen som stiger igjen nå...

Billig olje er ok da. Tenker det får fart på bestillingene!

Det har bygget seg opp en HS i Chart til FRO nu.
Kan dette gi ett nytt kutt i OPEC ? da blir det mindre olje å frakte.
Olje pris ned 4.35 % nu.

Fantastisk bra rater det begynner å bli

Utsikter til et vedvarende stramt marked bidrar til at analytiker Axel Styrman har en kjøpsanbefaling på både Frontline og DHT.
– Vi ser fortsatt stor oppside innen tank de neste årene, spesielt stortank og primært som følge av lav flåtevekst, forteller shippinganalytiker Axel Styrman i Kepler Cheuvreux.
– Vi forventer en flåtevekst innen råoljesegmentet ned mot null i løpet av neste år og på omtrent en prosent i 2025.
Styrman påpeker at transportavstandene samtidig er på vei opp, først og fremst grunnet økt råoljeeksport fra Nord- og Sør-Amerika til Asia, hovedsaklig til Kina.
https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2023/11/19/8060656/kepler-cheuvreux-tank-er-fortsatt-toppvalget

Er det nevnt noe kursmål på Frontline ?

Ikke spesifikt. Bare "stor oppside":
– Vi ser fortsatt stor oppside innen tank de neste årene, spesielt stortank og primært som følge av lav flåtevekst, forteller shippinganalytiker Axel Styrman i Kepler Cheuvreux.
– Vi forventer en flåtevekst innen råoljesegmentet ned mot null i løpet av neste år og på omtrent en prosent i 2025.
Styrman påpeker at transportavstandene samtidig er på vei opp, først og fremst grunnet økt råoljeeksport fra Nord- og Sør-Amerika til Asia, hovedsaklig til Kina.
– Nye transportmønstre som følge av Russlands angrepskrig mot Ukraina har også økt avstandene, og denne situasjonen vil sannsynligvis vil vedvare, tilføyer han.
– Det er videre sannsynlig at både Midtøsten-produsentene og Russland vil øke oljeproduksjonen i løpet av vinteren, hvilket betyr at eksportvolumene går ytterligere opp og styrker etterspørselen etter stortank.
Vi forventer en flåtevekst innen råoljesegmentet ned mot null i løpet av neste år
Axel Styrman, Kepler Cheuvreux

ANBEFALER FRONTLINE-AKSJEN: Analytiker Axel Styrman i Kepler Cheuvreux. FOTO: KEPLER CHEUVREUX
Frontline har oppside
Ifølge analytikeren er Frontline særlig godt posisjonert i tankmarkedet. Han viser til at rederiets flåteutvidelse i inneværende og neste kvartal vil gi langt større inntjeningskapasitet.
– Også DHT Holdings nyter godt av det sterke stortankmarkedet, har en aksjonærvennlig utbyttepolitikk og drar nytte av lave drivstoffutgifter, fortsetter Styrman.

Carnegie starter dekning av Frontline med kjøpsanbefaling og kursmål på 300 kroner pr aksje, ifølge en analyse i dag.

Arctic Securities høyner kursmålet på Frontline til 279 kroner pr aksje, fra 251 kroner, og gjentar en kjøpsanbefaling.

Clarksons Securities høyner kursmålet på Frontline til 350 kroner pr aksje, fra 250 kroner, og gjentar en kjøpsanbefaling.

Spår en ny pengemaskin – John Fredriksen-style
Carnegie har ikke sett bedre utsikter for inntjeningen innen stortank på 15 år.
Carnegie har tatt opp dekning av det John Fredriksen-kontrollerte tankrederiet Frontline.

«A new Golden Age,» er tittelen på analysen ifølge TDN Direkt som siterer fra analysen mandag

https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2023/11/20/8061189/vlcc-ratene-kan-na-100.000-dollar-dagen

Arctic-analytiker Ole-Rikard Hammer mener at det er gode muligheter for at VLCC-ratene når 100.000 dollar dagen før jul.

Hvis OPEC kutter enda flere fat kanskje 1 mill dagen hva vil det ha og si for FRO?
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Extend-Gains-Further-on-OPEC-Cut-Predictions.html

According to Bloomberg, hedge funds have reduced the oil bets to the point that they are more bearish than they have been in 20 weeks. All of this is leading to predictions that OPEC+ will attempt in the least to maintain existing cuts, if not broaden those cuts.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Said-To-Consider-Additional-1-Million-Bpd-Output-Cut.html

Jeg venter til OPEC møte 26 November før jeg går inn i FRO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WX2HFVHbo18&t=203s

Det er også en ting jeg savner ifra Analytiker Axel Styrman i Kepler Cheuvreux.
USA holder på å mildne sanksjonene i Venezuela og det vil komme mere olje derifra etterhvert.
Hvordan vil det spille inn? og hva skjer der? er det under radaren?
Harelabb ifra Axel kan en vel kalle den analysen.

Tror Frontline vil få en kraftig knekk på Mandag. Den er altfor høyt priset i utgangspunktet iht Svelland, bestemmer OPEC
Et kraftig kutt på Søndag vil det bli ille for Frontline

En ting til mens jeg holder på å skrive.
Den oljeproduserende Arabiske verden er ganske "pissed off" for tiden, og det skulle ikke forundre meg om de vil straffe USA/ Israel med ytterligere oljekutt.
Og at USA og Venezuela blir kompiser igjen.