As a SBX shareholder, as with most other stocks, you should really only care about downside.

I can only see downside from here if BOTH of these things happen:
a) Merger is cancelled and,
b) Either Fulmar Explorer or Eagle Explorer can't get new contracts.

If merger is completed they are guiding for $270M FCF from backlog over next few years (firm contracts) vs. pro-forma combined mcap of $370M.
If merger is NOT completed and contracts (Fulmar/Eagle) are renewed at a low $55.000 (vs $65.000 last indication of market rates) FCF (before debt paydown) should be around $12M/year with a mcap of $40M

Agree with all your points. And as a shareholder in SBX (bought after merger announcement) I hope the merger goes through.

SBX might have more upside as a stand alone company (if both ships gets contracts @$65.000) but the reduced risk with more assets and longer contract terms makes this an attractive transaction for SBX shareholders.

Edrill had net debt of $33M as of 2024Q4 and are generating $10-12M pr. month in cash so the estimate from Pareto conference checks out. When/if merger closes around Q2 combined company will be significantly net cash.

Fearnleys har også dekning, 7,5.
Utbyttene blir saftige.

Det skal være EGM idag. Kanskje det kommer nyheter?
Merger med Energy Drilling skal straks være i boks.