As a SBX shareholder, as with most other stocks, you should really only care about downside.

I can only see downside from here if BOTH of these things happen:
a) Merger is cancelled and,
b) Either Fulmar Explorer or Eagle Explorer can't get new contracts.

If merger is completed they are guiding for $270M FCF from backlog over next few years (firm contracts) vs. pro-forma combined mcap of $370M.
If merger is NOT completed and contracts (Fulmar/Eagle) are renewed at a low $55.000 (vs $65.000 last indication of market rates) FCF (before debt paydown) should be around $12M/year with a mcap of $40M

EDrill er mer lønnsomt enn SBX:

EBITDA-marginer:
EDrill Tender barge: 65%
EDrill egeneid Semi tender rig: 75%
EDrill innleid Semi tender på ny kontrakt:ca 50%
SBX source vessel: 45%

Free cash flow margin (FCFE):
EDrill: ca 47%
SBX: 30%

Agree with all your points. And as a shareholder in SBX (bought after merger announcement) I hope the merger goes through.

SBX might have more upside as a stand alone company (if both ships gets contracts @$65.000) but the reduced risk with more assets and longer contract terms makes this an attractive transaction for SBX shareholders.

Edrill had net debt of $33M as of 2024Q4 and are generating $10-12M pr. month in cash so the estimate from Pareto conference checks out. When/if merger closes around Q2 combined company will be significantly net cash.

https://www.finansavisen.no/tdn/2025/04/24/06455645/seabird-arctic-tar-opp-dekning-med-kjop-kursmal-8?internal_source=markedsnytt_frontpage_widget
"SeaBird Exploration og Energy Drilling skal slå seg sammen, og vi innleder dekning av det sammenslåtte selskapet med en kjøpsanbefaling og et kursmål på 8 kroner pr aksje"

Fearnleys har også dekning, 7,5.
Utbyttene blir saftige.

Det skal være EGM idag. Kanskje det kommer nyheter?
Merger med Energy Drilling skal straks være i boks.

https://www.finansavisen.no/tdn/2025/05/12/06462291/seabird-kontraktsforlengelse-for-eagle-explorer?internal_source=markedsnytt_frontpage_widget

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/647335

23.5.2025 11:17:36 CEST | Seabird Exploration Plc | Non-regulatory press
releases

Nicosia, Cyprus, May 23, 2025: SeaBird Exploration Plc (to be renamed SED Energy
Holdings Plc ("Energy Holdings")), will publish its pro-forma consolidated
financial results for the first quarter of 2025 on Wednesday, May 28, 2025, at
06:00 CEST.

A live audio webcast will be held the same day at 10:00 CEST, hosted by Kurt M.
Waldeland, incoming CEO of Energy Holdings, Viggo Pedersen, CFO of Energy
Drilling, and Sveinung Alvestad, CFO of SeaBird Exploration. There will be a Q&A
session at the end of the presentation, where written questions can be submitted
through the audiocast solution.

På websiden til EDrill er det kommet en oppdatering om en ny rig, MTR-4 med status "Coming soon".
https://edrill.com/our-rigs/
https://staging.edrill.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/rig-mtr4-specs.pdf
MTR-4 er en av de to halvferdige riggene som EDrill har opsjon på å bruke.
De var tydelige på at denne opsjonen ikke ville bli tatt bruk, med mindre de fikk kontrakt. Fra presentasjonen 3. februar hvor CFO bl.a. sier:
"We will only look at taking any of those out if we have a significant contract in place…"
"We will not take out any of these rigs under any circumstances on speculation"
https://www.sbexp.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/Recording-030225-2.mp4

Så da er det vel lov å håpe på melding om en ny kontrakt her om ikke så lenge?

Vi vil helt sikkert få en guiding på nye drilling kontrakter når resultatet for Q1 skal legges frem i neste uke.

"We will only look at taking any of those out if we have a significant contract in place…"
Her snakker vi kanskje om kontrakter med flere års varighet.