Har brutt opp av den negative trenden og gått over 50 dagers. Stort kjøpssignal. Kan gå veldig fort til 200kr

Ifølge investteck så er motstanden 180 så forstår ikke at den har brutt opp,teknisk nøytral står det på mellomlang sikt.Hvilken analyse bruker du?

Jeg bruker egne tekniske analyser basert på flere faktorer. Aksjer for viderekomne på youtube, bruker mange av de samme faktorene som meg, og gir en teknisk forklaring på hvorfor Frontline er et svært godt kjøp nå, så søk det opp hvis du er interessert!

Kjøpssignal 166 kursmål 187 fra Taktisk innside, som jeg abonnerer på og kan anbefale.

var jo den samme det ja ((-:

Raffinerienes forbruk av råolje har økt, særlig i USA, Midtøsten og Afrika, noe som bidrar til høyere global etterspørsel.

Økt oljeforbruk de neste årene er knyttet til økonomisk vekst, energisikkerhet, økende etterspørsel i store vekstmarkeder.

Jeg er positiv til stor tank.

Takk for tips,selv bruker jeg Investeck,men skal undersøke de analysene du nevner,har kjøpt Bull Frontline så intersant og også få andres meninger.

"DNB Markets ser over 60 prosent oppside i Frontline"

https://www.finansavisen.no/finans/2025/04/28/8260285/dagens-aksjetips-danske-bank-tar-opp-dekning-pa-dof-dnb-ser-kjempeoppside-i-tankaksje

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CkfUNlcAqQA&ab_channel=Aksjerforviderekomne

Fra 27:00, om Frontline. Sterkt kjøpssignal, og target price på 187kr på kort sikt

"Petter Haugen i ABG Sundal Collier spår Frontline-aksjen opp 50 prosent fra dagens kursnivå på 174 kroner til 263 kroner."

https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2025/04/30/8261056/spar-frontline-opp-over-50-prosent

Den er så tynn at alle kunne ha gjort den analysen på lenge kjente faktorer.

"Ifølge mandagens oppdatering fra Clarkson falt VLCC-ratene mandag med 100 dollar til 56.500 dollar pr. dag, mens capesizeratene steg med 800 dollar til 16.400 dollar. I løpet av den siste uken har capesizeratene gått opp 18,0 prosent mens de er ned 19,9 prosent i løpet av den siste måneden."

https://www.finansavisen.no/shipping/2025/04/29/8260614/shippingratene-spriker-usa-strammer-inn

"Bakgrunnen for skiftet skal være frustrasjon over at enkelte Opec+-medlemmer, særlig Kasakhstan og Irak, har produsert over sine tildelte kvoter. I lys av dette har Saudi-Arabia, ifølge kildene, endret taktikk og i stedet presset frem en større produksjonsøkning i mai. "

https://www.finansavisen.no/energi/2025/04/30/8261157/oljeprisen-stuper-pa-saudi-nyheter

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth: Message to IRAN:

We se your LETHAL support to The Houtis. We know exactly what you are doing.

You know very well that the U.S. Military is capale of - and you were warrned. You
will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing.

Rimelig klar melding......

Capesize er jo tørrlast skip ?

Må jo være bra for den '' hvite flåten '' av VLCC og FRO.

President Trump announces secondary sanctions against countries that purchase any amount of oil or petrochemicals from Iran.

Klar over at oljeprisen stiger litt nå.
Synspunkter.

Innlegg forum i Uniten - Siste setning mener jeg er interessant for FRO

Re: Another autonomous operator with UBER
this will in the near term wipe out the "gig" economy completely.

btw if you have not been in a tesla or similar car on full autopilot which you allow it to drive to you a location from start to finish, you'd not believe how good self driving software has become. Its quite amazing to experience.

I don't think these changes are that far off. Now no doubt that Tesla will end up being the Apple PC inventing the desktop here imo while other larger mass manufacturers jump into the markets and swamp them Windows computer style...but its going to be a wild time.

********* Interestingly I think it will increase energy use in transportation overall once it hits, but will crucify the deficits of the governments as that outlet for unemployment disappears.********

En av Statene i Canada som er rik på olje og mineraler og har rett til gjennom folkeavstemming å løsrive seg som egen stat. De er i flere år forbannet på tidligere Regjeringen ( Trudou, grønn tulling )i Ottawa ( Fransk talende ). Ottawa har til nå ikke brukt olje ( skifer ), med belaster Canada's økonomi med milliarder pr. år ved å IMPORTERE Crude olje.

Her er nyheter som kan få ting til å svinge efter valget i Canada. ( De er fremdeles del av the Britiske Samveldet.-)

An Albertan's comment today

Preston Manning announced this morning he will lead our independence movement. The Alberta Prosperity Project of which I am a member has a million members. The day after Carney‘s election our premier, Danielle Smith changed the requirements for a referendum to separate. Bill 54 has changed from requiring 600,000 votes to 177,000 votes plus the change of requiring 90 days to secure signatures has lengthened to 120 days to secure signatures of those citizens who voted in the last election. We already have that amount of signatures and more. There will be a process of asking all Albertans if they would like to pursue a referendum, and if we get the majority stating yes, we will proceed. If the referendum is successful, the federal government and our indigenous people get to review it. We know our indigenous people will approve of our position as we can offer them a much better deal than the feds ever had given them financially. Canada is unique in its constitution as it allows any province to separate from the country. In 1998 that provision was vetted by the Supreme Court and under SC217 the Supreme Court confirmed that provinces can legally separate. Alberta is Canada’s piggy bank but treated like it’s prey.

"The OPEC+ members currently participating in voluntary production cuts will meet this Saturday, May 3, instead of Monday, May 5, according to Kpler’s Amena Bakr on X. The call is set for noon Vienna time, with the agenda focused on “consensus building around maintaining the sped-up increment of 411K for June.”"

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Moves-Up-Meeting-To-Discuss-Oil-Production-Quotas.html

Frontline Plc $17.20 på Nasdaq nå. :)

Nå blir det en enorm forandring i Canada, og skifer olje bla. vil bli eksportert i langt større menger, fordi nå blir det endelig mulig for
bygging av nye pipelines, til kystene, incl. St. Lawraance river. Har ikke hatt tid på å tenke konsekvenser for tank shipping, men hva
mener andre her. Hvordan vil det kunne påvirke tank markedet. `
PP Alberta bound

Pierre Poilievre: MP giving up seat, Carney ready to call byelection

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/conservative-mp-gives-up-seat-for-pierre-poilievre-to-run-in-byelection/

Opec+ klemmer til med nok et betydelig produksjonsløft, ifølge Bloomberg og Reuters

https://www.dn.no/olje/opec/olje/energi/-opec-har-nettopp-kastet-en-bombe-inn-i-oljemarkedet/2-1-1814532

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-set-make-another-accelerated-oil-output-hike-june-sources-say-2025-05-03/

"Why OPEC Plus Is Increasing Oil Supplies Despite Falling Prices"

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/03/business/opec-plus-oil-production-trump.html

"Åtte medlemsland i Opec+ har blitt enige om en ny og akselerert økning i oljeproduksjonen for juni på 411.000 fat pr. dag, melder blant annet Reuters og Bloomberg."

https://www.finansavisen.no/energi/2025/05/03/8261573/reuters-ny-kraftig-okning-fra-opec

Skulle tro frakt av olje når den nå blir så billig fremover vil sette enda mer fart på rater og FRO.

Sett i forhold til forrige kvartal så er vel ratene høyere i Q1. Noen som har noen tanker om hva dette vil ha å si for utbytter fremover om dette holder seg?
Begynner å se på muligheter for ny inngang i FRO.

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirm commi

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirm commitment to market stability on current healthy oil market fundamentals and adjust production upward
The eight OPEC+ countries, which previously announced additional voluntary adjustments in April and November 2023, namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman met virtually on 3 May 2025, to review global market conditions and outlook.
In view of the current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, and in accordance with the decision agreed upon on 5 December 2024 to start a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary adjustments starting from 1 April 2025, the eight participating countries will implement a production adjustment of 411 thousand barrels per day in June 2025 from May 2025 required production level. This is equivalent to three monthly increments as detailed in the table below. The gradual increases may be paused or reversed subject to evolving market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability. The eight OPEC+ countries also noted that this measure will provide an opportunity for the participating countries to accelerate their compensation.

The eight countries reiterated their collective commitment to achieve full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, including the additional voluntary production adjustments that were agreed to be monitored by the JMMC during its 53rd meeting held on April 3rd 2024. They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024.

The eight OPEC+ countries will hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, conformity, and compensation. The eight countries will meet on 1 June 2025 to decide on July production levels.

"They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024" - er det en standardtekst eller er det noen som får på pukkelen her? (les: hvis jukserne må strupe litt så er kanskje ikke den offisielle økningen nødvendigvis noen reell økning???)

Frontline:
Det tror jeg også.Det vil bli hamstret billig olje.Også vlcc og mindre skip vil bli lagret med olje i Middelhavet.Oljelagrene rundt omkring vill bli fylt opp med billig olje.Og mange selskaper vil nyte godt av billigere olje.Transport og industri.

"Opec+ kan tilføre 2,2 millioner fat olje pr. dag innen utgangen av oktober, dersom medlemsland som Irak og Kasakhstan ikke retter seg etter produksjonsmålene."

https://www.finansavisen.no/energi/2025/05/04/8261636/saudi-arabia-truer-med-oljeflom-2-2-mill.-fat-innen-oktober

NÅ Reuters ( Snippet, link full artikkel ) CONTANGO

Oil prices drop as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes, surplus looms

Adding barrels into an economic slowdown will weigh on prices until we have a clearer picture on the demand impact."
Expectations of supply coming back to the market have weighed on the Brent futures forward curve, signifying a weaker market on the horizon.
The premium between the front-month Brent contract and that for delivery in six months was 10 cents a barrel, narrowing from 47 cents in the previous session. The spread had briefly flipped to a discount, known as a 'contango' structure, for the first time since December 2023 earlier in the session.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-falls-more-than-2bbl-opec-set-accelerate-output-hikes-2025-05-04/

Shell ser på sammenslåing med BP som vil danne en energi Gigant $ 266 Milliarder, shipping og charter sies i følge Tradewinds.

DNB: Ser kjempeoppside i tankaksje
DOF Group får sin tiende kjøpsanbefaling, og ingen meglerhus anbefaler noe annet. DNB Markets ser over 60 prosent oppside i Frontline, mens Höegh Autoliners får positive endringer etter tallslipp.

https://www.finansavisen.no/finans/2025/04/28/8260285/dagens-aksjetips-danske-bank-tar-opp-dekning-pa-dof-dnb-ser-kjempeoppside-i-tankaksje

- Dette er hva jeg forespeilet allerede for flere år siden; a TWO TIER market for tankers. Exactly paralellt til
Exxon Waldez, '' enkeltt skrog '' og en natur katastrofe av dimensjoner aldri sett før pga. grunnstøting av denne
super tanker VLCC. Alaska fikk enorme en natur katastrofe mitt i hendene. En haug av lokal sjø fugl, oter etc.
døde for ikke å snakke om opprensings kostnader aldri sett før.

Fra det tidspunkt Exxon Valdez, U.S. flagg, og en alkoholpåvirket kaptein, ble **verdensmarkedet forvandlet
nesten over natten.** Ingen ansvarlige nasjoner eller olje selskaper, befraktere osv. sluttet tonnasje som ikke
hadde DOUBLET SKROG. Tok vel kun ca. et til to år til hele verdensflåten fikk DOBBELT SKROG.

Sanctions igjen viser seg ubrukelig, spesielt når alle involverte parter, Midt-Østen ( spesielt Iran ), Venezuela,
Maxico, vest-Afrika selger og Kina, India, Pakistan m. fler kjøper og ikke bryr seg en døtt om internasjonale regler.
Nå har vi fått på toppen av dette Russland in the mix, og vi ser i dag tydelig at verdenssamfunnet har ingen midler
som kan stoppe dette uansvarlige mønster av skipninger som har pågått i årevis, og ingen midler har man til å
få satten en stopper på det.

Forfatter av artikkel på linken gir en formidabel god forklaring og oversikt herom..

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GqLNEPzXIAAIBb_?format=png&name=medium

Ser ut som USD FRO går så det griner i kveld , Får håpe det reflekteres i ratene også.

Russia Production

Russia continues its relentless production decline. Here is a detail of Russian production since the 2020 price war with Saudi Arabia. A baseline production for each country was established at that time and used to determine individual contributions to quota production cuts.

If you recall, Russia was very slow to meet their quota and always maintained that they were unable to cut production during most of the year because if they shut-in a well, it would freeze in the permafrost and they would be unable to restart it. This rationale was pretty much accepted by SA and they allowed Russia to overproduce as a result without serious objection.

Here is detail of total Russian production over time since the initial OPEC+ agreement.

March 2020 agreed baseline: 11.000 MMbbls/d
Q1 2020 actual production: 10.378
Sep 2022 actual production: 9.770
March 2025 actual production: 8.963

Russia's western siberian oil fields are in continued decline. Their eastern siberian fields have been their growth engine (ESPO) but are now flat production at best. Russia has been unable to grow production for some time and, until sanctions are removed, will have difficulty doing so in the future.

Don't look for Russia to add barrels as their quota rises. They can't meet the quota they have now. Their June quota is 9.161 - higher than their current capacity to produce.

Henter litt for dere fra Uniten og et forum der, @Energy Board - Et lite varsko for oss og stor tank ?

Update on China
Might oil weakness by partially due to the expectation (right or wrong) that China will not need as much if their economy continues to slide lower?

---------------------------------------------------------

Foreign orders have “evaporated” for many Chinese exporters, borrowing the word from one in southern China.
He is not alone. On social media platforms in China, they discuss their dilemma. A few said they were immune from the impact of U.S. tariffs owing to their irreplaceable products.
These exporters reported that U.S. orders formed most of their business—and were the most lucrative. Without the American market, no other region, including Europe, can fill the void.
Ocean container bookings from China to the United States have dropped by 60 percent since universal tariffs were announced on April 2, according to Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, an international shipping company.
Exports drove one-third of China’s economic growth last year, the highest level since 2017.
China’s economy is growing more slowly; that’s the official story. Some experts dispute these figures—they say the Chinese economy is already in recession, and U.S. tariffs may make things a lot worse.
“China’s in a real problem period,” Rod Martin, founder and CEO of Martin Capital, told The Epoch Times.
Beijing will have trouble backing down from its standoff with the United States, he said, because Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping “has clearly created his whole persona around being the leader who can stand up to America.”
Given the irreplaceable nature of the U.S. consumer market in China’s export-driven economy, Martin said, Beijing will “have to make a deal at some point, or this recession does turn into a depression.”
William Lee, chief economist at the Milken Institute, an economic think tank based in California, said Xi will likely subsidize Chinese exporters at the cost of further increasing deficits of heavily indebted local governments.
The Chinese regime can probably keep exporters afloat for about six months to a year if it doesn’t resolve the trade war with the United States, Lee projected.
A recession is defined as a decline in GDP in two consecutive quarters. A depression is a prolonged recession.
Two key forward-looking indicators point to a downward trend.
In April, China’s factory activity contracted the fastest—a 3 percent month-over-month drop—in two years, according to the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) was 49 in April, the lowest since December 2023.
China’s official youth unemployment rate was at 16.5 percent in March. Frank Xie, business professor at the University of South Carolina Aiken, said the situation will worsen when a new wave of college graduates enters the job market this summer.
More than 12 million college students will graduate in June. Among them, about 7 million will enter the job market, and the remainder will pursue advanced studies.
The regime paused reporting the number in June 2023, when it hit a record of 21.3 percent. The Epoch Times reported at the time that the actual youth unemployment rate may have been much higher. A college law professor estimated it at as high as 80 percent.
The regime resumed reporting unemployment figures in January 2024, but began excluding students from its methodology.
“China’s economic structure was built based on globalization,” Yeh Yao-Yuan, professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas in Houston, told The Epoch Times.
“However, after China’s overcapacity distorted the global markets for so long, and the global markets began to say ‘no,’ the domestic market won’t be able to absorb the overproduction. It’s only a matter of time before the Chinese economy enters a depression.”
So, if the official data from the Chinese regime will never confirm anything but growth, let alone a recession or depression, what signs can observers watch for to know whether it has entered a worse phase?
Among all statistics, export data is difficult to forge because one country’s exports would need to equal other countries’ imports, Xie said.
Social unrest due to the lack of jobs will be another sign of China entering a depression, according to Yeh.
China’s Commerce Ministry, in a subtle shift of tone on May 2, indicated that it was open to trade talks.
Now, for many Chinese exporters, competing internally seems to be the only viable way to move piled inventories and keep producing.
A shoe wholesaler in Guangdong Province keeps posting advertising videos showing the difficulties of keeping 1,000 jobs alive and the high quality of its products because they are tailored for exports. The sales manager said the shoes are made for well-known Western brands, “they are just without the logos.”
Read more here.
— Terri Wu

Gevinstsikres idag også?
Høyeste volum siste måned igår.
Blir enda høyere idag...

Eller er det 200 det siktes mot?

BDTI ned ca 7,5% siste 6 dager.
https://en.stockq.org/index/BDTI.php

India attacked Pakistan and Pakistani Kashmir on Wednesday, and Pakistan said it shot down five Indian fighter jets in the worst fighting in more than two decades between the nuclear-armed enemies. Indian shares were lower on Wednesday morning, but had pared their early losses.

Reuters hele artikkel, Morning Bid: Trade talks at last

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/global-markets-view-usa-2025-05-07/

Mulig shortskvis, 10% av Frontline er shortet.

20 dager antas det at de bruker for å dekke inn. Men, begynner de nå eller venter de? Noen tanker om dette?

https://www.finansavisen.no/energi/2025/05/09/8262944/abg-mulig-short-skvis-i-norske-shippingaksjer

"Frontline plc (NYSE: FRO) is currently experiencing significant short interest, with approximately 10.2% of its shares sold short, as reported by ABG Sundal Collier. This level of short interest is considered high and indicates that a notable portion of investors are betting against the stock.Finansavisen+1Benzinga+1

ABG Sundal Collier's analysis highlights that Frontline has recently broken through a resistance level at NOK 160, with the next resistance anticipated between NOK 200 and NOK 220. The firm also notes that it would take approximately 20 days to cover all short positions in the stock, suggesting a potential for a short squeeze if the stock price continues to rise. Finansavisen

A short squeeze occurs when a heavily shorted stock's price begins to rise, forcing short sellers to buy back shares to cover their positions, which can further drive up the stock price. Given the current high short interest and recent positive technical signals, Frontline may be poised for such a scenario.Investopedia+3Investopedia+3BrokerChooser+3Finansavisen

Investors should monitor trading volumes and price movements closely. If the stock continues its upward trajectory, it could trigger a wave of short covering, leading to rapid price increases. However, it's essential to consider the inherent risks, as short squeezes can lead to increased volatility.

For those considering investment or trading strategies involving Frontline, staying informed about market trends and potential catalysts is crucial."

Ikke vet jeg om dette gangner FRO, men vil tro det. India, som det sies er økonomien flying, og det betyr forbruk av olje.

Flynn Energy - May 9

The Invisible Hand of President Trump

The oil market is starting to finally turn around as President Trump’s trade deals may start to come fast and furious. Yet it won’t always be the trade deals and tariffs that mark President Trump’s economic policy but his invisible hand in undoing a lot of the economic damage caused by inflation and the over regulation and taxation of the US economy that has hindered the poor and middle class in this country.

This morning it is being reported that India has offered to slash tariffs with the US to less than 4% from the current average of nearly 13% to try to secure a potential trade deal. This comes the day after what was a “breakthrough” trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom. The deal was described as a framework or heads of term agreement that will look to increase bilateral trade between the US and Europe while the US maintains a 10% tariff on most British goods. Of course the European Union continues to be stubborn, not willing to negotiate at this point. The EU had previously approved retaliatory tariffs of up to €18 billion on US goods which included everything from motorcycles to fruit and wood that was in response to US tariffs on European steel aluminum and cars and a 10% universal tariff on most goods. The EU did pause those tariffs on April 10th but decided to go ahead and put them back into place yesterday.

They should negotiate swiftly, as potential deals with the UK and India, the world’s fastest-growing economy, may leave the EU behind. This is especially true if the trade talks between China and US officials on Saturday and Sunday are successful and bear fruit. Plus or minus a 10% fruit tariff.

From a broader perspective, President Trump deserves more credit for the factors leading to low energy prices. His common-sense approach to energy policy, whether for economic or national security reasons, is yielding significant benefits. President Trump’s policies have already contributed to a decrease in prices.

Regulatory costs related to energy can significantly impact consumer prices, potentially increasing costs by 10 to 15%. Estimates suggest that regulatory expenses for US energy production may range from $60 billion to over $100 billion annually. Regulatory costs increased significantly under Biden. As a result, many companies likely had to hire a substantial number of legal professionals to navigate the complexities of executive orders.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) was particularly critical of Biden’s so-called “Inflation Reduction Act” which helped fuel inflation in 2022. The API said that, “Hazardous Substance Superfund” financing rate, which is a reinstated tax on crude oil and imported petroleum, was set at 16.4 cents per barrel and indexed to inflation. This resulted in $11.7 billion in new costs for energy producers. It was also a direct tax on the poor and middle class in this country who bear the brunt of these policies.

The American Petroleum Institute also pointed out that the methane emission reduction program, a new tax on methane, that started out at $900 per ton in 2024 skyrocketed to 1500 dollars per ton by 2026 and that added over $6 billion in new costs for oil and gas companies. Additionally, producers in the industry expressed concerns that the methane tax might negatively impact smaller producers. They believe that an excessive tax could reduce production and lead to consolidation of power among larger energy companies.

So the markets are already reacting to the fact that President Donald Trump has reduced many of the regulatory costs caused by Biden’s executive orders. When President Trump declared a national energy emergency citing inadequate energy infrastructure and high energy prices as a threat to national security, this was a signal to the market that prices in the United States and the world will go lower. Not so much directly because there will be greater supply of oil, but also because the cost of doing business is going to be huge.

The other thing that President Trump is doing that’s going to lower the cost of energy is the department of government efficiency – DOGE. By eliminating government fraud and abuse, it will allow us to have a better running government that’s going to be more efficient and help reduce the budget deficit in the United states.

Now with President Trump’s trade deals in place we’re starting to see even more possibilities that tax rates here in the United States can go down while foreign countries pick up the slack. This will allow the private sector in the United States to grow and is going to be a big boom for the poor and middle class. President Trump also signed an executive order requiring 10 agencies and sub agencies to insert a one year expiration date to existing energy regulations set to expire in 2026 and unless extended, only regulation teams to serve American interests will be maintained. This effectively resetting the entire regulatory landscape for energy. This euro based regulation approach will eliminate outdated and costly regulations particularly those from the 1970s.

We could go on and on about more about President Trump’s invisible hand and we will in the future but today we better focus back on the markets. The natural gas inventory number was a little bit bearish but the market is still holding in there as weather will be the key.

The Energy Information Administration reported 104 billion cubic feet increase in supply last week which was more than expected. That offset expectations for warmer weather and the return of the Freeport liquefied natural gas terminal that’s back online which is going to help support prices.

Myrabakk, nå følger jeg med. 20 dager. Hadde tenkt å vente til Blå regjering i september med salg,
men nå gjelder det å passe på.

Takker for svar. Interessant tid vi er inne I når man ser på makro, men dette er vrient. Jeg kjøpte noen flere aksjer i går for å ha litt om det begynner å røre på seg med inndekking.

Når oljeprisen går ned så er det oftest tegn på kjøling av økonomien. Men det er ikke tilfellet nå, i hvertfall ikke hovedgrunnen. Prisfall kommer av signaler om kraftig økning i oljeproduksjon. Kina importerer omkring samme volumer som før, og med fall i oljepris pleier stormaktene ofte å fylle opp oljelagrene sine. Noe som igjen betyr mer frakt.

Nå ser vi også at UK setter sterkere press på dark fleet til Russland. 100 fartøy er svartelistet, men ikke minst er disse to forsikringsselskapene som ikke er redelige svartelistet. Det betyr i praksis at alle skipene i f.eks Ro Insuranse er svartelistet. Det betyr igjen mer frakt til de som gjør ting mer redelig.

Det som kanskje er mest usikkert fremover er verdenshandelen. Alt så ut til å ta seg opp for en tid siden, men så kom Trump. Trumps tollkrig påvirker vareflyt, som igjen påvirker stormaktenes behov for olje. Nå tror jeg ikke Trump kan kjøre denne tollkrigen mot Kina særlig lenge, for signalene fra innenlands industri i USA begynner å bli entydig skeptiske til konsekvensene de opplever. De iverksatte tiltakene slår hardt ned på innenlands aktører, noe som kanskje i beste fall kan sees som en bivirkning? Kina sier de er klare for å forhandle, og USA sier de er klare når Kina tar kontakt og ønsker å forhandle.

Dersom CHN og US blir enige om en vandelsavtale med lavere tollsatser så skal verdenshandelen og aksjemarkedet ta seg kraftig opp igjen, tenker nå jeg. Da er oljefrakt en vesentlig del av denne oppgangen.

Satser på avklaringer i makrosituasjonen de kommende dager/uker, så ser vi hvor retningen går. Går det rett vei så tror jeg short må dekke inn, men går det feil vei med Trumps politikk så er det usikkert hvor veien fremover går.

Slik tenker i hvertfall jeg, og det er slettes ikke sikkert er riktig tankesett :)

https://www.dn.no/utenriks/usa/kina/scott-bessent/usa-og-kina-kunngjor-gjennombrudd-etter-maratonforhandlinger/2-1-1817934

"The recent announcement of a preliminary trade agreement between the U.S. and China, following intensive negotiations in Geneva, has positively influenced global markets. U.S. stock futures rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up over 530 points (1.3%), and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures increasing by 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively.

This development is particularly relevant for Frontline Plc (NYSE: FRO), a major oil tanker company. The easing of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies could lead to increased global trade activity, potentially boosting demand for oil transportation services. Such an uptick in demand may positively impact Frontline's operations and stock performance.
Yahoo"

Hva er forventningene vedrørende EPS og dividende nå for Q1 ?

OSLO (Reuters) -Norway's wealth fund, the world's largest, has sold all its fixed income investments in Mexican state oil firm Pemex, it said on Sunday, citing what it called an unacceptable risk that the company is involved in corruption.

The fund's ethics watchdog, the Council on Ethics, said "its investigations have revealed that Pemex may be linked to multiple allegations or suspicions of corruption in Mexico in the period 2004-2023," it said in a statement.

"The Council attaches importance to the fact that a significant number of company employees, including a former senior executive, are alleged to have received bribes on several separate occasions."

Pemex was not immediately reachable for comment outside of regular business hours.

The $1.8 trillion fund, which owns 1.5% of listed shares across 9,000 companies globally, operates under guidelines set by Norway's parliament and is seen as a leader in the environmental, social and governance field.

Den største historien som ikke er i nyhetene

Libyas president, som styrer den vestlige halvdelen av landet, ble myrdet i går. Kamper mellom ulike fraksjoner pågår akkurat nå i Tripoli.

Landet er på vei inn i borgerkrigen igjen – noe som kan ha stor innvirkning på landets oljeproduksjon og eksport. Landet har to hovedmotstandsmakter (øst vs. vest) pluss den kompliserende faktoren av over 100 væpnede forskjellige væpnede militsgrupper.

Alt annet som skjer i verden har henvist denne historien til baksiden (så langt). Jeg har en følelse av at den kommer til å bli en stor nyhet så snart det første oljefeltet stenges ned.