DNB med oppdatert analyse. Kursmål kr 21

Slettet bruker
CRAYON 16.04.2018 kl 20:53 3489

CRAYON
KURSMÅL 21 kr
Minor estimate changes
We have made only minor estimate revisions, and for
2018–2020e are now 0–2% ahead of consensus on
revenues and 9–6% above on adj. EBITDA. Crayon is
due to report its Q1 results at 07:00 CET on 15 May;
we expect focus to be on its handling of software
vendor incentive changes, and its US business
following the management reshuffle in the quarter. We
reiterate BUY and our NOK21 target price.
We have made only minor changes to our estimates, continuing to expect ~9%
YOY gross profit growth in 2018 (company target: 8–10%), slightly increasing our
2018 EBITDA (adj.) assumption by 2% on our expectation of an improved
performance in Crayon’s Nordic Markets, and now forecast a 2018 EBITDA/gross
profit (adj.) margin of 12.6% (company target: 12–14%.). We continue to expect
depreciation and amortisation of NOK66m (company target: depreciation ~NOK10m;
amortisation NOK55m–60m) and capex of NOK44m (company target: NOK40m–
45m).
9–6% above consensus on 2018–2020e EBITDA (adj.). For 2018–2020e we are
now 0–2% ahead of (Bloomberg) consensus on revenues, 9–6% above on EBITDA
(adj.), and 7–6% ahead on EBIT.
Q1 focus areas. At the Q1 results presentation, we expect focus to be on how Crayon
is dealing with the incentive changes made by software vendors which affected it
negatively in Q4 2017, as well as Crayon’s US business following a management
reshuffle during the quarter, which we expect to focus its US software business more
towards Software Indirect (distribution of software/cloud services through partners).
We continue to believe Crayon is significantly undervalued by the market, with
no value attributed to its non-Nordic market operations and limited value to its Nordic
Markets. We continue to believe the Nordic business alone could warrant an equity
value of NOK20/share in a standalone/M&A scenario, based on applying Atea’s
EV/EBITDA of ~10x (Bloomberg consensus) to Nordic Markets’ 2018e EBITDA (after
deducting HQ and minorities). Even if we were to assume Crayon fails to adapt to the
Q4 incentive changes during 2018, we calculate Nordic Markets should warrant
NOK15/share. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and NOK21 target pric
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:33 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
17.04.2018 kl 14:21 3387

DNB har "bull-case" scenario på kr 31 på denne potensielle diamanten.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:33 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
17.04.2018 kl 23:50 3333

Crayon fremstår merkelig billig. Tatt på børs hvor innsidere tegnet betydelig på 15,50.

Blir ikke forundret om det kommer bud på hele selskapet slik prisingen av selskapet er.

Vil antakelig være helt gjeldsfrie ila q4 dette året. Et ytterligere bevis på at selskapet er rasende billig.

Tech er opp i us, jeg forventer videre oppgang for crayon imorgen.

Tredobling av dagens kurs er innenfor rekkevidde, om de leverer på utenlandssatsningen.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:33 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
18.04.2018 kl 16:15 3250

Litt kjøpere og aksjen stikker oppover.

Skal ikke mye til fær vi når emisjonsprisen på 15,50.

Tipper vi er der rundt eller etter Q1 oppdateringen. Kjøp.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:33 Du må logge inn for å svare
Winter is Here
21.02.2023 kl 05:55 1048

"DNB Gjør helomvending i Crayon
Mens alle de norske meglerhusene roper kjøp om Crayon trykker DNB Markets hardt på bremsen. – Det har vært litt for dårlig kontantstrøm litt for lenge"

"NEDGRADERER CRAYON: – De må bevise at de kan gjøre inntjeningen om til kontanter"
d12m
21.02.2023 kl 07:54 947

Crayon (Hold, TP: NOK110.00) - Working capital headwinds likely a lid on multiples near-term

While Crayon continued to demonstrate standout growth in gross profit in Q4, working capital headwinds and increasing debt servicing costs left us less upbeat on the quarter. As a result, while our adj. EBITDA estimates are unchanged, we have lowered our 2023–2024e adj. EPS by ~11–12%. Furthermore, with the market’s heightened focus on the bottom line and cash flow, we believe Crayon has to prove itself on both before achieving the premium multiple its growth trajectory might otherwise allow. We have therefore cut our target price to NOK110 (160) and downgraded to HOLD (BUY).
DDD66
21.02.2023 kl 11:59 845

Og Petter Kongslie i SB1 Markets har en helt annen tilnærming datert 16. feb.

+NOK10 per share in free cash flow to equity in 2023 (P/E 10x)

Conclusion
4Q22 was, very nicely said, a mess and it has taken us some time to update our model with new IFRS-15 accounting rules. Nevertheless, following limited negative estimate changes to EPS in 2023 and 2024 (-3%) and slightly positive OpFCF estimate changes in the same period (5%), we reiterate our Buy recommendation and NOK200 target price. CRAYN trades at 2023e and 2024e OpFCF yield (a very good proxy on FCF yield) of 8.6% and 11.7%, respectively, whereas our NOK200 target price is equal 5% on average in 2023/2024. Our investment case is based on the following.
Our analysis

1. The business model in CRAYN works similar to consultants in principal. Simply put, to make a point, look at CRAYN as a company with a business model where you have gross profit multiplied by # of seats (licenses) handled. Both gross profit per seat can go up and down and the same can # of seats under administration. That is not the point, the point is that CRAYN has accumulated more accounts during 2022 and moves into 2023 with significantly more accounts vs. the average in 2022 and hence, there is a overhang og growth moving into 2023 (therefore the reference to IT consultants, which has similar model with regards to # of consultants moving into the next year as compared to the average that generated earnings the previous year). Therefore, we believe the company has attractive visibility on the 20% organic gross profit growth for 2023 (we model 19% and they delivered 23% in 2022). For 2024 and 2025 we model 17.6% and 15.2% vs. medium-term guidance of 20%.

2. Moreover, as we eluded to with Link Mobility earlier today, majority of the growth steams from volume- and price increases net of churn (CRAYN has low single digit churn) on existing customers and hence, the growth should be EBITDA to gross margin accretive as well. The company guide a increase from 18.7% in 2022 to 20-21% in 2023 and gradual increase to 25% medium-term. We model 20% in 2023 for now (17% opex growth YoY) as we need more datapoints before we are comfortable moving that upwards. Supporting factors was found on slide 11 in the presentation where the company specifically comment a focus on cost control driven by both volume and cost efficiencies (i.e., lower rate of hiring), which is a new wording compared to previous. We model 21.2% and 22.5% for 2024 and 2025.

3. Also and the main point why we yelled “Buy on weakness” in our post 4Q22 webcast comment was uncertainty on working capital and hence FCF. Okay, FCF in 4Q22 landed at NOK430m. However, that numbers missed a NOK450m payment from the public sector in the Philippines (affecting all vendors) for Microsoft licenses, which CRAYN has paid Microsoft for at its end. All else equal, this would have increased FCF to close to NOK900m in 4Q22 and then the share would have started up 5-10% and not started down 5%. According to our understanding talking to the company and market participants, this cash is expected to be paid in 1H23 and consequently, we model FCF to equity per share (cash flow EPS) of NOK10.5 in 2023, which correspond to a multiple of 10x on the current market cap.

4. Nevertheless, even though it supports de-leveraging in 2023, we regard this as a one-off (negative for 2022 and positive for 2023) and we do not base our valuation on this. In 2024 and 2025 we model with normalized working capital dynamics (100% EBITDA reported to cash flow from operations conversion and not 135% as in 2023) and arrive at a FCF to equity per share of NOK9.3 and NOK12.2. This means that CRAYON trades at a cash flow P/E of 11.3x and 8.6x in 2024 and 2025 and our target equal 21.5x and 16x. Keep buying!
YNWA250505
21.02.2023 kl 13:12 810

Veldig greit at DNB blir satt på plass her. Jeg kjøpte 1k på 98,70 nå og tror det vil bli en pen gevinst fremover. Selger meg mulig ut igjen på kr 150