Øker kursmålet i Crayon
Expansion for free and the Nordics at a discount
Conclusion
Our take is to view Crayon as a portfolio of assets, with several moving parts, where the #1 must win battle is twofold. First, as some investors and analysts put zero value on the international expansion, Crayon need to deliver YoY improvements in EBITDA in the Nordic Markets to improve the value of the company. Second, with a portfolio of assets with moving parts, it is important to deliver on aggregate and show sequential improvement in trailing 12m EBITDA. Indeed, our take is that Crayon will be able to deliver on one out of two with improved performance in the Nordics, driven by an extension of the recovery in the services business witnessed during 2H17. Hence, we have upped our EBITDA in the Nordics with 2%, which unfortunately is offset by changes in mgmt. in USA, which negatively affected 1Q18 figures and some higher HQ cost. Therefore, we are left with 1) zero aggregated estimate changes, 2) increased EBITDA in the Nordics and 3) multiple expansion among Nordic peers, which make us reiterate our Buy and lift our target to NOK18. That being said, we have limited conviction ahead of 1Q18, with among other Easter effect coming into play, and do not recommend our clients to take a bet on the figures. As such, our new target price is based on a long-term view on the prospects of Crayon.
Our analysis
· Zero aggregated estimate changes
We make zero aggregated estimate changes ahead of 1Q18. However, we have upped EBITDA with 2% in the Nordics in ‘18e based on 1) an extension of the recovery in the services business witnessed during 2H17 and 2) strong services performance from peers already reported. This is offset by changes in mgmt. in USA and higher HQ cost.
· Currently, lack of confidence in the company…
Crayon has disappointed two quarters in a row and hence, it is fair that investors need several quarters to get back the trust of the company. Our rule of thumb states two solid quarters for each weak quarter. Nevertheless, with guidance not including any positive outcome of the partner incentive changes from 4Q18, we argue worst case scenario already is factored in both expectations and find risk/reward attractive
· …offset plenty of valuation support
On the current share price, we argue investors get the international expansion free and the Nordics at a discount. Indeed, we attribute NOK14 per share to the Nordics (‘18e EV/EBITDA of 10x) and NOK4 to the expansion (EV/IC 1x ’14-16 invested capital). Coupled with upped estimates in the Nordics and multiple expansion among peers, we reiterate our Buy rec, but up our target from NOK15 to NOK18. Our target price correspond to an implied 2017A and 2018e EV/EBITDA of 13.9x and 11.8x, respectively. Moreover, it also translate into ‘18e OpFCF yield (EBITDA – capex) of 8.2% and ‘18e and ‘19e adjusted P/E of 23.2x and 17.9x, respectively
Conclusion
Our take is to view Crayon as a portfolio of assets, with several moving parts, where the #1 must win battle is twofold. First, as some investors and analysts put zero value on the international expansion, Crayon need to deliver YoY improvements in EBITDA in the Nordic Markets to improve the value of the company. Second, with a portfolio of assets with moving parts, it is important to deliver on aggregate and show sequential improvement in trailing 12m EBITDA. Indeed, our take is that Crayon will be able to deliver on one out of two with improved performance in the Nordics, driven by an extension of the recovery in the services business witnessed during 2H17. Hence, we have upped our EBITDA in the Nordics with 2%, which unfortunately is offset by changes in mgmt. in USA, which negatively affected 1Q18 figures and some higher HQ cost. Therefore, we are left with 1) zero aggregated estimate changes, 2) increased EBITDA in the Nordics and 3) multiple expansion among Nordic peers, which make us reiterate our Buy and lift our target to NOK18. That being said, we have limited conviction ahead of 1Q18, with among other Easter effect coming into play, and do not recommend our clients to take a bet on the figures. As such, our new target price is based on a long-term view on the prospects of Crayon.
Our analysis
· Zero aggregated estimate changes
We make zero aggregated estimate changes ahead of 1Q18. However, we have upped EBITDA with 2% in the Nordics in ‘18e based on 1) an extension of the recovery in the services business witnessed during 2H17 and 2) strong services performance from peers already reported. This is offset by changes in mgmt. in USA and higher HQ cost.
· Currently, lack of confidence in the company…
Crayon has disappointed two quarters in a row and hence, it is fair that investors need several quarters to get back the trust of the company. Our rule of thumb states two solid quarters for each weak quarter. Nevertheless, with guidance not including any positive outcome of the partner incentive changes from 4Q18, we argue worst case scenario already is factored in both expectations and find risk/reward attractive
· …offset plenty of valuation support
On the current share price, we argue investors get the international expansion free and the Nordics at a discount. Indeed, we attribute NOK14 per share to the Nordics (‘18e EV/EBITDA of 10x) and NOK4 to the expansion (EV/IC 1x ’14-16 invested capital). Coupled with upped estimates in the Nordics and multiple expansion among peers, we reiterate our Buy rec, but up our target from NOK15 to NOK18. Our target price correspond to an implied 2017A and 2018e EV/EBITDA of 13.9x and 11.8x, respectively. Moreover, it also translate into ‘18e OpFCF yield (EBITDA – capex) of 8.2% and ‘18e and ‘19e adjusted P/E of 23.2x and 17.9x, respectively
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 00:08
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Oslo, 10 May 2018: Crayon has been appointed by Amazon Web Services (AWS) as one
of their firsts Competency Machine Learning partners in EMEA. This accreditation
means that the Crayon and the AWS ML/AI teams will closely cooperate to drive
mutual business advantage and that Amazon Web Services (AWS) can grow the ML/AI
business together with Crayon in the EMEA region. Torgrim Takle, Crayon Group
CEO commented; "We are very proud to be appointed as Amazon Web Services first
Machine Learning Partner in EMEA. This supports Crayon's global ambitions within
the strategically important AI and Machine Learning market and demonstrates that
the investments we have made in building a world-class AI Practice are being
rewarded by the leading hyper-scale cloud and AI partners".
Oslo, 10 May 2018: Crayon has been appointed by Amazon Web Services (AWS) as one
of their firsts Competency Machine Learning partners in EMEA. This accreditation
means that the Crayon and the AWS ML/AI teams will closely cooperate to drive
mutual business advantage and that Amazon Web Services (AWS) can grow the ML/AI
business together with Crayon in the EMEA region. Torgrim Takle, Crayon Group
CEO commented; "We are very proud to be appointed as Amazon Web Services first
Machine Learning Partner in EMEA. This supports Crayon's global ambitions within
the strategically important AI and Machine Learning market and demonstrates that
the investments we have made in building a world-class AI Practice are being
rewarded by the leading hyper-scale cloud and AI partners".
ULKEN
11.05.2018 kl 15:57
12542
Carnegie sin anlyse over? Det er vel ingen andre som har noe kursmål her av analytikerne?
Fortsatt langt under emi kurs på 15,50.
Der ble det også gjort store innside kjøp.
Klar doblingskandidat.
Der ble det også gjort store innside kjøp.
Klar doblingskandidat.
ULKEN
14.05.2018 kl 21:02
12445
Solgt ned i sluttauksjonen av noen som ikke vil sitter over Q1. Kanskje ikke noe godt signal, selv om DNB hadde en grei kjøpsanbefaling i dag. DNB sine kjøpsanbefalinger betyr ofte selg, blir interessant å se om det slår til i morgen?
Inntektene opp en halv milliard. Underskuddet reduseres med marginale 10 millioner. Skal vel ha en god presentasjon for å unngå skrell på disse tallene. Har stop loss(sikre en liten gevinst) på 13 tallet så får vi se.
Better operational performance than expected, “unchanged” guidance and risk/reward improved
Conclusion
Crayon delivered revenues spot on our expectations, but delivered NOK310m in gross profit, above our NOK289m estimate and above consensus at NOK281m. This correspond to a YoY growth of ~15% compared to full year 2018 guidance of 8% to 10% YoY growth. The positive deviation is driven by solid performance in both the Nordic Markets and Growth markets, which more than offset some lower performance in the US (driven by the mgmt. changes we discussed in our preview). Consequently, EBITDA (adj.) came in at NOK13.3m, above our NOK1.4m estimate and NOK3.3m consensus estimate. This positive deviation is driven by 1) beat in the Nordics, 2) lower negative contribution in both Start-ups and he US. Even though 1Q18 proved to be a solid beat on the operational performance, driven by the Nordics, company more or less reiterates its guidance and argue “1Q reaffirms 2018 outlook”. However, capex guidance for 2018 is increased from NOK40-45m, to NOK45-50m (vs our NOK42.7m estimate). Indeed, we argue, as with 1Q18, Crayon wants 1) expectations to be prudent and 2) account for a very solid 2Q last year. At last, cash flow from operations was affected by seasonal working capital build-up and hence, the cash balance and NIBD is affected correspondingly. However, as we argued in our initiation and also look to Atea, the only way to look at NIBD in the case of companies like Crayon or Atea is trailing 12m, in order to correctly account for seasonality in the working capital base. Indeed, on a trailing 12m basis, NIBD is down from NOK471m in 4Q17 to NOK420m in 1Q18. Therefore, we see limited issues with the increased NIBD and argue it is trending down as expected. Conclusion: We argue Crayon is trending in the right direction, we are especially encouraged by the performance in the Nordics, which is the only asset investors put a value on. However, with unchanged guidance for the full year 2018 we expect estimates to come up 5-8% and expect the share to outperform the market with 5% percentage points today. Buy Crayon, target NOK18!
Conclusion
Crayon delivered revenues spot on our expectations, but delivered NOK310m in gross profit, above our NOK289m estimate and above consensus at NOK281m. This correspond to a YoY growth of ~15% compared to full year 2018 guidance of 8% to 10% YoY growth. The positive deviation is driven by solid performance in both the Nordic Markets and Growth markets, which more than offset some lower performance in the US (driven by the mgmt. changes we discussed in our preview). Consequently, EBITDA (adj.) came in at NOK13.3m, above our NOK1.4m estimate and NOK3.3m consensus estimate. This positive deviation is driven by 1) beat in the Nordics, 2) lower negative contribution in both Start-ups and he US. Even though 1Q18 proved to be a solid beat on the operational performance, driven by the Nordics, company more or less reiterates its guidance and argue “1Q reaffirms 2018 outlook”. However, capex guidance for 2018 is increased from NOK40-45m, to NOK45-50m (vs our NOK42.7m estimate). Indeed, we argue, as with 1Q18, Crayon wants 1) expectations to be prudent and 2) account for a very solid 2Q last year. At last, cash flow from operations was affected by seasonal working capital build-up and hence, the cash balance and NIBD is affected correspondingly. However, as we argued in our initiation and also look to Atea, the only way to look at NIBD in the case of companies like Crayon or Atea is trailing 12m, in order to correctly account for seasonality in the working capital base. Indeed, on a trailing 12m basis, NIBD is down from NOK471m in 4Q17 to NOK420m in 1Q18. Therefore, we see limited issues with the increased NIBD and argue it is trending down as expected. Conclusion: We argue Crayon is trending in the right direction, we are especially encouraged by the performance in the Nordics, which is the only asset investors put a value on. However, with unchanged guidance for the full year 2018 we expect estimates to come up 5-8% and expect the share to outperform the market with 5% percentage points today. Buy Crayon, target NOK18!
Er fantastisk mange som ikke skjønner selskapene de tydeligvis investerer i.. vet du i det hele tatt hva Crayon driver med?
Hvis det er meg du sikter til så er svaret ja. Ikke det selskapet jeg har satt meg mest inn i, men på ca 10 syntes jeg forholdet risk/reward var bra. Hadde for øvrig en god reise med Inmeta for noen år tilbake. Og uansett hvordan man snur og vender på det så er ikke disse tallene akkurat hva man isolert sett kan kalle spreke. Ser noen mener det er signifikant bedring i inntjening og EBITDA, men de må se på andre tall enn de som er lagt ut. Men selvsagt klarer man å bedre marginene med noen få prosentpoeng kan det bli bra.
Knuste i alle fall forventningene og estimatene vil nå antakeligvis høynes for 18 og kanskje også 19 og 20.
Allerede flere kjøpsanbefalinger, men blir ikke overrasket om vi ser høyere kursmål allerede idag eller imorgen.
Tror fortsatt på dobling fra dagens kurs.
Allerede flere kjøpsanbefalinger, men blir ikke overrasket om vi ser høyere kursmål allerede idag eller imorgen.
Tror fortsatt på dobling fra dagens kurs.
At et selskap kommer inn litt i overkant av estimater er knappast å knuse estimatene :). Når det er sagt så ser også jeg potensialet her. Topplinjen er bra, men man må også ha noe igjen på bunnlinjen for å kunne si at man leverer. Man må kunne se litt nøkternt analytisk på det selv om man har aksjer i et selskap.
Two out of two
Conclusion
In our 1Q18 preview, we wrote and I quote myself: “Our take is to view Crayon as a portfolio of assets, with several moving parts, where the #1 must win battle is twofold. First, as some investors and analysts put zero value on the international expansion, Crayon need to deliver YoY improvements in EBITDA in the Nordic Markets to improve the value of the company. Second, with a portfolio of assets with moving parts, it is important to deliver on aggregate and show sequential improvement in trailing 12m EBITDA”. Indeed, during 1Q18, Crayon delivered on both and coupled with 1) Gartner raising enterprise software market growth from 9% to 11%, 2) Crayon delivering Microsoft cloud leadership with 57% cloud mix vs. global peers at 40% and 3) SB1M raising our EBITDA (adj.) with 7% on average, we are reluctant to reiterate our Buy rec. and raise our target from NOK18 to NOK20. The NOK2 increased target price is driven by increased EBITDA contribution in the Nordics, and value Crayon at ‘18e EV/EBITDA of ~11x, in line with Atea and below key peers (14x).
Our analysis
· 1Q18 a solid beat…
Crayon delivered revenues spot on our expectations, but delivered NOK310m in gross profit, above our NOK289m estimate and above consensus at NOK281m. This correspond to a YoY growth of ~15% compared to full year 2018 guidance of 8% to 10% YoY growth. The positive deviation is driven by solid performance in both the Nordic Markets and Growth markets. Consequently, EBITDA (adj.) came in at NOK13.3m, above our NOK1.4m estimate and NOK3.3m consensus estimate.
· …and we up our estimates with 7% on average…
After the 1Q18 report, we have upped our EBITDA (adj.) estimate with 8%, 7% and 7% in ‘18e, ‘19e and ‘20e, respectively. This is primarily driven by increased gross profit and EBITDA in the Nordics, which delivered a solid 1Q18 within services in general and consulting in particular. Consequently, we model with YoY gross profit growth of 9.6%, 8.9% and 8.8% in ‘18e, ‘19e and ‘20e, respectively, in the mid to high-end of guidance.
· …and raise our target from NOK18 to NOK20
On the current share price, we argue investors get the international expansion free and the Nordics at a discount. Indeed, we attribute NOK16 per share to the Nordics (‘18e EV/EBITDA of 10x) and NOK4 to the expansion (EV/IC 1x ’14-16 invested capital). Coupled with 7% upped estimates on average, driven by the Nordics, we reiterate our Buy rec, but up our target from NOK18 to NOK20. Our target price correspond to an implied 2017A and 2018e EV/EBITDA of ~14x and ~11x, respectively. Moreover, it also translate into ‘18e OpFCF yield (EBITDA – capex) of 8% and ‘18e and ‘19e adjusted P/E of 27x and 17x, respectively
Conclusion
In our 1Q18 preview, we wrote and I quote myself: “Our take is to view Crayon as a portfolio of assets, with several moving parts, where the #1 must win battle is twofold. First, as some investors and analysts put zero value on the international expansion, Crayon need to deliver YoY improvements in EBITDA in the Nordic Markets to improve the value of the company. Second, with a portfolio of assets with moving parts, it is important to deliver on aggregate and show sequential improvement in trailing 12m EBITDA”. Indeed, during 1Q18, Crayon delivered on both and coupled with 1) Gartner raising enterprise software market growth from 9% to 11%, 2) Crayon delivering Microsoft cloud leadership with 57% cloud mix vs. global peers at 40% and 3) SB1M raising our EBITDA (adj.) with 7% on average, we are reluctant to reiterate our Buy rec. and raise our target from NOK18 to NOK20. The NOK2 increased target price is driven by increased EBITDA contribution in the Nordics, and value Crayon at ‘18e EV/EBITDA of ~11x, in line with Atea and below key peers (14x).
Our analysis
· 1Q18 a solid beat…
Crayon delivered revenues spot on our expectations, but delivered NOK310m in gross profit, above our NOK289m estimate and above consensus at NOK281m. This correspond to a YoY growth of ~15% compared to full year 2018 guidance of 8% to 10% YoY growth. The positive deviation is driven by solid performance in both the Nordic Markets and Growth markets. Consequently, EBITDA (adj.) came in at NOK13.3m, above our NOK1.4m estimate and NOK3.3m consensus estimate.
· …and we up our estimates with 7% on average…
After the 1Q18 report, we have upped our EBITDA (adj.) estimate with 8%, 7% and 7% in ‘18e, ‘19e and ‘20e, respectively. This is primarily driven by increased gross profit and EBITDA in the Nordics, which delivered a solid 1Q18 within services in general and consulting in particular. Consequently, we model with YoY gross profit growth of 9.6%, 8.9% and 8.8% in ‘18e, ‘19e and ‘20e, respectively, in the mid to high-end of guidance.
· …and raise our target from NOK18 to NOK20
On the current share price, we argue investors get the international expansion free and the Nordics at a discount. Indeed, we attribute NOK16 per share to the Nordics (‘18e EV/EBITDA of 10x) and NOK4 to the expansion (EV/IC 1x ’14-16 invested capital). Coupled with 7% upped estimates on average, driven by the Nordics, we reiterate our Buy rec, but up our target from NOK18 to NOK20. Our target price correspond to an implied 2017A and 2018e EV/EBITDA of ~14x and ~11x, respectively. Moreover, it also translate into ‘18e OpFCF yield (EBITDA – capex) of 8% and ‘18e and ‘19e adjusted P/E of 27x and 17x, respectively
Akkurat som forventet økes kursmålet fra 18 til 20 kroner.
Håper noen flere luringer kjøpte idag, for denne skal godt opp den kommende tiden!
Håper noen flere luringer kjøpte idag, for denne skal godt opp den kommende tiden!
Crayon rapporterte i går Q1-tall over både våre estimater og konsensus. Etter at selskapet leverte noe svakere tall enn ventet for de to foregående kvartalene ser det nå ut til at selskapet er i rute i forhold til de kommuniserte målsettingene for 2018. På grunnlag av gårsdagens rapport har vi løftet estimatet for justert EBITDA i 2018 med rundt 5%. Vi opprettholder kjøpsanbefalingen og tar kursmålet opp fra NOK 21 til NOK 23 pr aksje.
Satan for en flaks enkelte har, bare kaster seg på en nykomling på børs som ser ut til å ha år foran seg for å komme inn i et skikkelig godt driv, og så kommer oppkjøpslystne spillere umiddelbart på banen, bare få uker etter at kursen har bunna tragisk ned. Satan.
Fikk 40 % avkastning på ca 2 mnd i denne. Solgte meg dessverre ut for tidlig:-)
Ha-ha, men 40% på 2 mnd er flott det, Capitan01..:)- 2 mnd er jo tross alt bare en liten brøkdel av året. Uten all info der og da, så virket det vel mest fornuftig for deg da å sikre gevinst, og det er ikke feil. Det kan ikke kalles feil.
Falkland
28.05.2018 kl 10:47
11489
Nytt rykk opp nå,ser det ut som. Reprising på gang.
Ser vi 25 i dag?
Ser vi 25 i dag?
mern1
28.05.2018 kl 11:05
11474
JPMorgan hadde shortet 954 777 aksjer pr 16/5, pr 24/5 er de ned i 742 341. Vil trolig være litt salgspress i dag og i morgen, da de sikkert vil kvitte seg med shorten før budet kommer.
Falkland
28.05.2018 kl 12:28
11412
Kan i så fall bli en kostbar Short, dette her.
På vei opp etter en liten dupp
På vei opp etter en liten dupp
Falkland
28.05.2018 kl 12:54
11681
Mern1
Om tallene dine stemmer (antar det), så er det et voksent antall aksjer som skal inn igjen. Med så lite salgspress som det er nå, så ser vi kun starten av kursstigningen. Dette kan bli en veeeeldig fin uke
Om tallene dine stemmer (antar det), så er det et voksent antall aksjer som skal inn igjen. Med så lite salgspress som det er nå, så ser vi kun starten av kursstigningen. Dette kan bli en veeeeldig fin uke
Ecopunk
28.05.2018 kl 14:04
11617
Måtte virkelig sjekke eg også, og for meg ser det også ut som JP er kraftig short her !!
mern1
28.05.2018 kl 14:48
11573
Det er ikke så stor short kun 0,98%, tenker de store meglerhus fort plukker hvis kursen ramler for mye. DNB har vel kurs-mål på nok 23 og det var før konkurrentene til Crayon kjøpte seg opp, SPM1 har kurs-mål nok 25.
Her ligger det penger på gata som venter å bli plukka opp, for det er overveiende sannsynlig at det kommer et bud.
Her ligger det penger på gata som venter å bli plukka opp, for det er overveiende sannsynlig at det kommer et bud.
mern1
28.05.2018 kl 15:51
11536
Shorten er nå under 0,5%(kun short over 0,5%som blir reg og vist) mulig at den nå også er innløst.
JPMorgan tapte noen kroner på denne shorten.
JPMorgan tapte noen kroner på denne shorten.
Falkland
28.05.2018 kl 15:58
11529
Vi vokner vel opp til et oppkjøp snart, ja. Helt ok å være inne da.
mern1
29.05.2018 kl 10:52
11309
Tror JP er ute, trolig litt gevinstsikring, NEI tror faktisk du har rett, tror JP tror de kaster ut siste rest nå. Tror den vil holde seg på tjuetallet da Crayon`s konkurrent handlet store poster på godt over tjue. Vil tro at et bud er nært forestående pga de kvittet seg med shorten så raskt som de gjorde.
Redigert 29.05.2018 kl 11:10
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Falkland
29.05.2018 kl 12:20
11266
Ser i alle fall ut til at den har snudd opp nå.
Kan gå raskt opp!
Kan gå raskt opp!