GOGL November 2
Chinese Iron Ore Imports: Holding Strong
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 25/11/2017
Chinese seaborne iron ore imports have grown robustly in the year to date, and are currently projected to reach 1,074mt in full year 2017, accounting for more than 70% of global seaborne iron ore imports and around a third of the expected growth in total seaborne dry bulk trade this year. What factors have driven the firm expansion in China’s seaborne iron ore imports in 2017 so far?
As Hard As Iron
After a period of slower growth in Chinese seaborne iron ore imports in 2015, expansion picked up in 2016 and imports have continued to grow firmly so far this year, rising 7% y-o-y to 804mt in the first nine months of 2017. This growth has continued to be principally driven by exports from Australia and Brazil, which have accounted for more than 75% of China’s import growth in the year to date between them, a similar proportion to last year. However, a number of other suppliers have also increased exports to China, with China’s imports from India more than doubling in the year to date and imports from Iran and Sierra Leone growing by more than 35%.
Striking While The Iron Is Hot
The overall growth in Chinese iron ore imports has partly been supported by a c.3-4% increase in China’s steel consumption in 2017, whilst supply-side reform in China’s steel industry has also played a major role. The Chinese government, aiming to improve profitability in the steel sector and reduce air pollution, reportedly shut down more than 100mtpa of ‘illegal’ induction furnace steel capacity in 1H 2017. As a result, and against a backdrop of improved demand, steel prices rose firmly and the country’s major steel plants have subsequently ramped up production to take advantage. Official data, which does not include ‘illegal’ capacity, shows a 6% y-o-y increase in China’s steel production so far this year, although underlying steel production growth is likely to have been more modest, at around 3% when the closure of ‘illegal’ capacity is taken into account. As China’s ‘illegal’ induction furnaces typically consumed relatively low grade domestic iron ore and scrap, whilst the major steel plants generally use higher grade imported iron ore, China’s reliance on imports is likely to have increased further this year, having reached a reported 87% in 2016.
Acid Test?
However, growth in Chinese iron ore imports could slow somewhat towards the end of the year as a result of planned steel production cuts, although the extent of such an impact is uncertain. Government policies to reduce air pollution are expected to cut steel production by up to 50% during the winter months in a number of cities including Tangshan, China’s largest steel producing city. There are a range of scenarios, with the general consensus suggesting a slight decline in production in the period between November and March, although some reports suggest a y-o-y decline of as much as 8%.
So, while there is uncertainty over the impact of steel production cuts over the winter, China’s seaborne iron ore imports still look set to have expanded robustly in full year 2017. Overall, it seems that China’s supply-side reform in the steel industry has been a key driver of firm growth in global seaborne dry bulk trade this year.
Source: Clarkson Research
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in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 25/11/2017
Chinese seaborne iron ore imports have grown robustly in the year to date, and are currently projected to reach 1,074mt in full year 2017, accounting for more than 70% of global seaborne iron ore imports and around a third of the expected growth in total seaborne dry bulk trade this year. What factors have driven the firm expansion in China’s seaborne iron ore imports in 2017 so far?
As Hard As Iron
After a period of slower growth in Chinese seaborne iron ore imports in 2015, expansion picked up in 2016 and imports have continued to grow firmly so far this year, rising 7% y-o-y to 804mt in the first nine months of 2017. This growth has continued to be principally driven by exports from Australia and Brazil, which have accounted for more than 75% of China’s import growth in the year to date between them, a similar proportion to last year. However, a number of other suppliers have also increased exports to China, with China’s imports from India more than doubling in the year to date and imports from Iran and Sierra Leone growing by more than 35%.
Striking While The Iron Is Hot
The overall growth in Chinese iron ore imports has partly been supported by a c.3-4% increase in China’s steel consumption in 2017, whilst supply-side reform in China’s steel industry has also played a major role. The Chinese government, aiming to improve profitability in the steel sector and reduce air pollution, reportedly shut down more than 100mtpa of ‘illegal’ induction furnace steel capacity in 1H 2017. As a result, and against a backdrop of improved demand, steel prices rose firmly and the country’s major steel plants have subsequently ramped up production to take advantage. Official data, which does not include ‘illegal’ capacity, shows a 6% y-o-y increase in China’s steel production so far this year, although underlying steel production growth is likely to have been more modest, at around 3% when the closure of ‘illegal’ capacity is taken into account. As China’s ‘illegal’ induction furnaces typically consumed relatively low grade domestic iron ore and scrap, whilst the major steel plants generally use higher grade imported iron ore, China’s reliance on imports is likely to have increased further this year, having reached a reported 87% in 2016.
Acid Test?
However, growth in Chinese iron ore imports could slow somewhat towards the end of the year as a result of planned steel production cuts, although the extent of such an impact is uncertain. Government policies to reduce air pollution are expected to cut steel production by up to 50% during the winter months in a number of cities including Tangshan, China’s largest steel producing city. There are a range of scenarios, with the general consensus suggesting a slight decline in production in the period between November and March, although some reports suggest a y-o-y decline of as much as 8%.
So, while there is uncertainty over the impact of steel production cuts over the winter, China’s seaborne iron ore imports still look set to have expanded robustly in full year 2017. Overall, it seems that China’s supply-side reform in the steel industry has been a key driver of firm growth in global seaborne dry bulk trade this year.
Source: Clarkson Research
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Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:56
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Sa2ri
27.11.2017 kl 17:14
12014
Golden Ocean Group Ltd. breached its 50 day moving average in a Bullish Manner : GOGL-US : November 27, 2017
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d69f83fe-dd5e-37c9-9840-c6f8bf745c22/golden-ocean-group-ltd..html
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/d69f83fe-dd5e-37c9-9840-c6f8bf745c22/golden-ocean-group-ltd..html
Bassefix
27.11.2017 kl 14:19
12232
Baltic Dry-indekset stiger mandag med 1,3 pct. til 1477 point. Alle tiders laveste niveau i 290 point blev nået den 10. og 11. februar i 2016. Alle tiders højeste niveau blev nået 20. maj 2008, hvor indekset nåede 11.793 point.
Raterne på Panamax-skibe stiger 0,3 pct. til 10.419 dollar per dag. Antalsmæssigt udgør Supramax det største antal hos D/S Norden, og her blev det til en stigning på 0,2 pct. til 10.343 dollar per dag. Raterne på de store Capesize-skibe, der især fragter jernmalm, stiger 2,6 pct. til 23.129 dollar per dag og raterne på de små Handysize-skibe taber 0,1 pct. til 9.047 dollar per dag.
Raterne på Panamax-skibe stiger 0,3 pct. til 10.419 dollar per dag. Antalsmæssigt udgør Supramax det største antal hos D/S Norden, og her blev det til en stigning på 0,2 pct. til 10.343 dollar per dag. Raterne på de store Capesize-skibe, der især fragter jernmalm, stiger 2,6 pct. til 23.129 dollar per dag og raterne på de små Handysize-skibe taber 0,1 pct. til 9.047 dollar per dag.
Bassefix
27.11.2017 kl 14:07
12274
SHIPPING: BALTIC DRY-INDEKSET STIGER 1,3 PCT. TIL 1477 POINT
14:04
Tørlastindekset Baltic Dry stiger mandag med 1,3 pct. til 1477 point. Det fremgår af data fra Bloomberg
14:04
Tørlastindekset Baltic Dry stiger mandag med 1,3 pct. til 1477 point. Det fremgår af data fra Bloomberg
Redigert 27.11.2017 kl 14:19
Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
27.11.2017 kl 13:50
12305
Som antatt dette. Kursen er priset til kjempekrakk ratene i Q1 (snitt rundt $12.000). Det kommer ikke til å skje, tror jeg. Nå er fokus på utbyttet, og slik det ser ut nå, tror jeg på et lite utbytte allerede fra Q4:-)
Mange virker overrasket over de sterke ratene om dagen, det overrasker meg. Dere følger sikkert med på armeringsjernprisen også. Pang! opp nesten 4 % i dag.
Mange virker overrasket over de sterke ratene om dagen, det overrasker meg. Dere følger sikkert med på armeringsjernprisen også. Pang! opp nesten 4 % i dag.
Sa2ri
27.11.2017 kl 13:35
12414
Da ser det ut til at det blir positive tall i morgen også:
FFA: Capes starting week off with a bang hitting new highs across curve. PMX, SMX both up a little but finding sellers pre-index.
FFA: Capes starting week off with a bang hitting new highs across curve. PMX, SMX both up a little but finding sellers pre-index.
jama
27.11.2017 kl 13:24
12390
Mandag 27.11.2017.
Ratene stiger og stiger. Dette går veien
----------
BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE 4TC +2,6% TIL USD 23.129/DAG
12:02
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize 4TC stiger 2,6 prosent til 23.129 dollar pr dag, melder Bloomberg News mandag.
Baltic capesize 4TC rapporteres til en fast differanse som er 1.064 dollar lavere enn den nyere Baltic capesize 5TC-indeksen, som inngår i Baltic Dry-indeksen.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Finans, +47 21 95 60 70
© TDN delayed
Ratene stiger og stiger. Dette går veien
----------
BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE 4TC +2,6% TIL USD 23.129/DAG
12:02
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize 4TC stiger 2,6 prosent til 23.129 dollar pr dag, melder Bloomberg News mandag.
Baltic capesize 4TC rapporteres til en fast differanse som er 1.064 dollar lavere enn den nyere Baltic capesize 5TC-indeksen, som inngår i Baltic Dry-indeksen.
HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Finans, +47 21 95 60 70
© TDN delayed
Bassefix
27.11.2017 kl 11:42
12557
Freight rates surge on commodity boom
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 27/11/2017
Shipping freight rates are rising on the back of the commodity boom. The Baltic dry bulk, tanker segment, and other freight indices are rising fast for the past few months, following good demand in India, China, the Atlantic market, and the Gulf coast. The Baltic dry bulk index is up 45.3 per cent this year even after a small correction in the past few weeks, and has achieved more than a three-year-high level.
The Baltic dirty tanker index, reflecting movements in crude oil, in the past three months went up 33 per cent after a surge in Brent oil on expectations of production cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPECs), and geopolitical uncertainties in the region.
Similar movements have been seen in the S&P Platts shipping freight indices, which hold good for routes on which Indian ports fall. The past two weeks have seen some correction from higher levels but the consensus of freight agents, analysts, and shipping companies is that that trends in the shipping freight market are expected to remain firm.
Will it help shipping companies to revive their fortunes? That depends upon how many companies are in a position to cash in on high freights.
An executive of Shipping Corporation of India said, “Many companies have seen margins improving but it’s not significant and shipping companies are still not breaking even.” He said there was a lot of instability and volatility in the market. The past two weeks’ small correction shows while overall trends will remain firm in the case of freight, movements will not be one-sided.
Pradeep Rajan, senior managing editor, Asia Pacific Shipping & Freight, S&P Global Platts, said: “The dry bulk freight rates had registered a spike during September and October after steadily rising since the beginning of the second half of 2017 in the Asia-Pacific mainly due to the demand for coal in China and India.”
A CARE Ratings report on power plants says: “Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have been highly affected by the coal-shortage.”
The tanker market, another important segment, has also seen demand despite the production cuts by OPEC and reports of the cuts being extended. “The rates from the start of the second half of the year have found support mainly due to the increase in the movement of crude oil from the Atlantic basin to Asia,” said Rajan.
Due to a wide gap in prices of Brent and WTI oil, some imports coming from Gulf nations have been replaced by US shale oil because prices of WTI oil are lower by 10-12 per cent. Rising imports from the US are keeping very large crude carriers employed for longer durations.
Internationally, even a strong Atlantic market, mainly due to a very robust grain market on the east coast of South America and the US Gulf Coast, drew vessels from the Asia-Pacific into the Western hemisphere, which tightened ship availability in the Asia-Pacific region. So while on the one hand vessels in the dry bulk segment were in demand, the slow entry of newly-built vessels into the market is curtailing the addition of more tonnage. The past two weeks’ correction from the peak has been attributed to a slow grain market in the Atlantic.
Apart from the coal demand in India, Rajan said, “The burgeoning Indian exports of steel, iron ore, pellets etc have provided ample demand for the Supramax class vessels.” A Shipping Corporation official said, “China is under watch as coal and ore import demand is expected to go up.”
Source: Business Standard
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 27/11/2017
Shipping freight rates are rising on the back of the commodity boom. The Baltic dry bulk, tanker segment, and other freight indices are rising fast for the past few months, following good demand in India, China, the Atlantic market, and the Gulf coast. The Baltic dry bulk index is up 45.3 per cent this year even after a small correction in the past few weeks, and has achieved more than a three-year-high level.
The Baltic dirty tanker index, reflecting movements in crude oil, in the past three months went up 33 per cent after a surge in Brent oil on expectations of production cuts by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPECs), and geopolitical uncertainties in the region.
Similar movements have been seen in the S&P Platts shipping freight indices, which hold good for routes on which Indian ports fall. The past two weeks have seen some correction from higher levels but the consensus of freight agents, analysts, and shipping companies is that that trends in the shipping freight market are expected to remain firm.
Will it help shipping companies to revive their fortunes? That depends upon how many companies are in a position to cash in on high freights.
An executive of Shipping Corporation of India said, “Many companies have seen margins improving but it’s not significant and shipping companies are still not breaking even.” He said there was a lot of instability and volatility in the market. The past two weeks’ small correction shows while overall trends will remain firm in the case of freight, movements will not be one-sided.
Pradeep Rajan, senior managing editor, Asia Pacific Shipping & Freight, S&P Global Platts, said: “The dry bulk freight rates had registered a spike during September and October after steadily rising since the beginning of the second half of 2017 in the Asia-Pacific mainly due to the demand for coal in China and India.”
A CARE Ratings report on power plants says: “Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have been highly affected by the coal-shortage.”
The tanker market, another important segment, has also seen demand despite the production cuts by OPEC and reports of the cuts being extended. “The rates from the start of the second half of the year have found support mainly due to the increase in the movement of crude oil from the Atlantic basin to Asia,” said Rajan.
Due to a wide gap in prices of Brent and WTI oil, some imports coming from Gulf nations have been replaced by US shale oil because prices of WTI oil are lower by 10-12 per cent. Rising imports from the US are keeping very large crude carriers employed for longer durations.
Internationally, even a strong Atlantic market, mainly due to a very robust grain market on the east coast of South America and the US Gulf Coast, drew vessels from the Asia-Pacific into the Western hemisphere, which tightened ship availability in the Asia-Pacific region. So while on the one hand vessels in the dry bulk segment were in demand, the slow entry of newly-built vessels into the market is curtailing the addition of more tonnage. The past two weeks’ correction from the peak has been attributed to a slow grain market in the Atlantic.
Apart from the coal demand in India, Rajan said, “The burgeoning Indian exports of steel, iron ore, pellets etc have provided ample demand for the Supramax class vessels.” A Shipping Corporation official said, “China is under watch as coal and ore import demand is expected to go up.”
Source: Business Standard
Wilde
27.11.2017 kl 10:13
12752
https://www.dn.no/nyheter/2017/11/27/0841/Bors/slik-satser-aksjeekspertene-na
Dette er selskapene som deltagerne i DNs porteføljekonkurranse har troen på i den kommende uken:
Ukeporteføljene
DN følger hver uke oppdateringene i porteføljene til Sparebank 1 Markets, DNB Markets og Arctic Fund Management.
Aktørenes porteføljevalg blir publisert på DN.no hver mandag morgen.
DNB Markets
Inn: Ingen endring
Ut: Yara
Portefølje: Golden Ocean Group, Sparebank 1 SR-Bank, Grieg Seafood, Aker, Storebrand, Gjensidige Forsikring, Kværner, TGS, Statoil
Sparebank 1 Markets
Inn: Fjord1
Ut: Ingen endringer
Portefølje: Yara, Orkla, Kongsberggruppen, Golden Ocean Group, DNO, Europris, Pareto Bank, Fjord1
Arctic Fund Management
Inn: Golden Ocean Group
Ut: Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap
Portefølje: Telenor, Gjensidige Forsikring, Atea, B2 Holding, Aker, Entra, Yara, Golden Ocean Group
Dette er selskapene som deltagerne i DNs porteføljekonkurranse har troen på i den kommende uken:
Ukeporteføljene
DN følger hver uke oppdateringene i porteføljene til Sparebank 1 Markets, DNB Markets og Arctic Fund Management.
Aktørenes porteføljevalg blir publisert på DN.no hver mandag morgen.
DNB Markets
Inn: Ingen endring
Ut: Yara
Portefølje: Golden Ocean Group, Sparebank 1 SR-Bank, Grieg Seafood, Aker, Storebrand, Gjensidige Forsikring, Kværner, TGS, Statoil
Sparebank 1 Markets
Inn: Fjord1
Ut: Ingen endringer
Portefølje: Yara, Orkla, Kongsberggruppen, Golden Ocean Group, DNO, Europris, Pareto Bank, Fjord1
Arctic Fund Management
Inn: Golden Ocean Group
Ut: Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap
Portefølje: Telenor, Gjensidige Forsikring, Atea, B2 Holding, Aker, Entra, Yara, Golden Ocean Group
Sa2ri
27.11.2017 kl 09:23
12844
Her er et klipp fra en morgenrapport fra SB1M:
"DRY BULK: Cape spot rates rose 13% to usd 27 576/day last week, which is a new ytd high, and the highest on record since 2014. FFA rates both for CAL 2018 and Q1 2018 rose 1% and 2% respectively w/w. 1 year TC rate was up 3% w/w to usd 17 250/day. Newbuild values for Cape Size/Pananamx and Handymax were up usd 0,5’’. Current Capesize newbuild price is quoted at usd 44 mill."
"DRY BULK: Cape spot rates rose 13% to usd 27 576/day last week, which is a new ytd high, and the highest on record since 2014. FFA rates both for CAL 2018 and Q1 2018 rose 1% and 2% respectively w/w. 1 year TC rate was up 3% w/w to usd 17 250/day. Newbuild values for Cape Size/Pananamx and Handymax were up usd 0,5’’. Current Capesize newbuild price is quoted at usd 44 mill."
Bassefix
25.11.2017 kl 21:06
13227
Dry Bulk FFA: Capesize Market Loses Traction
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 25/11/2017
Capesize FFA Commentary:
Cape paper failed to gain any traction Friday despite the index still making modest gains as the week drew to a close. The fact the FFAs held their ground over a very quiet day could be construed as bullish but only further physical news next week will give us something more solid to hold on to. Good weekend to all.
Panamax FFA Commentary:
The trend of the last few days continued yesterday with buying interest early on before liquidity dried up in the afternoon. Prompt periods were the early focus with December trading from $11000-11200 and the q1 traded $10000 upto 10250. With the index slowly seeing gains we wait for next week to see if this push continues.
Supramax FFA Commentary:
Supramax paper was slightly stronger again yesterday as we saw bid support down the curve but struggled again to really make the next big move. Dec was trading $10800-$10850 throughout the day with Q1 trading $9750 and the Cal 18 being paid $9950. Have a good evening and a great weekend.
Handysize FFA Commentary:
Another very quiet day with regards to the handysize paper, with little to report. Have a good evening and a great weekend.
Full Report
Source: Freight Investors International (FIS)
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 25/11/2017
Capesize FFA Commentary:
Cape paper failed to gain any traction Friday despite the index still making modest gains as the week drew to a close. The fact the FFAs held their ground over a very quiet day could be construed as bullish but only further physical news next week will give us something more solid to hold on to. Good weekend to all.
Panamax FFA Commentary:
The trend of the last few days continued yesterday with buying interest early on before liquidity dried up in the afternoon. Prompt periods were the early focus with December trading from $11000-11200 and the q1 traded $10000 upto 10250. With the index slowly seeing gains we wait for next week to see if this push continues.
Supramax FFA Commentary:
Supramax paper was slightly stronger again yesterday as we saw bid support down the curve but struggled again to really make the next big move. Dec was trading $10800-$10850 throughout the day with Q1 trading $9750 and the Cal 18 being paid $9950. Have a good evening and a great weekend.
Handysize FFA Commentary:
Another very quiet day with regards to the handysize paper, with little to report. Have a good evening and a great weekend.
Full Report
Source: Freight Investors International (FIS)