analysen til sb1 markets

bellx
ELK 20.12.2021 kl 09:46 1122

Kursmål 25 morgan stanley 39 SEB 51,her er det bare og tenke på et tall pe på 4 tallet. Fuktig julebord hos sp1m i helga??
Borret
20.12.2021 kl 09:49 1102

Bør nok begrunnes mer saklig enn dette! Forsøkte å finne analysen fra SP1M i farten, er det noen som har detaljene som begrunner denne dramatiske endringen i markedssyn?
Winter is Here
20.12.2021 kl 09:56 1057

Supply/demand balance could be worse than in 2019 when ELK reported an EPS of NOK1.5
We lower our target price on ELK from NOK36 to NOK25 and recommendation from Neutral to Sell as i) we expect new silicones capacity in China to reduce utilisation from our estimated 90%+ in Nov/Dec 2021 to around 70% in Q1 2022, ii) in our mind, the silicone market in China is still an immature market compared to Europe in which producers will most likely compete for market shares even when margins are low as the long-term characteristics of the silicones market is attractive (we are of the opinion that all producers in China are eager to get Wacker’s position in Europe), and; iii) we argue that the silicone(s) industry fits with China’s ambition to become more focused on “value-add”, and as such, China will most likely not cap/limit production capacity of silicone(s). As a result, we expect lower our margin assumptions for the silicone industry, and thus estimate an EPS of NOK3.0 and NOK2.0 in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Our EPS forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are 40-50% below consensus. Our estimated utilisation for silicones in China points to lower utilisation in 2022/2023 than in 2019 when ELK reported an EPS of NOK1.5.
Considerable new capacity is expected to be introduced to the market over the next year. According to BAIInfo, about
1.025Mt of total new capacity will be introduced during the next twelve months, amounting to an increase of 55% from today’s total capacity of 1.875Mt. This increase in capacity massively surpasses our demand forecast*, resulting in low utilisation in the forecast period.
Moreover, we do not see any slowdown in production nor in capacity growth due to the characteristics of the Chinese silicone market. Due to the current characteristics of the silicone market being immature, we believe that producers are unlikely to cut capacity in order to win market share as it is high switching costs involved for customers. Adding to this, we are of the opinion that China is not going to cap capacity as the silicone market in our mind is a value-add market than what is the case for other materials such as aluminium. The historical returns that Wacker Silicones has generated are in our mind the reason why producers in China are willing to invest for the longterm.
In total, we expect a strong Q4, but the market for silicones looks to be oversupplied and silicon materials seems to normalise – timing wise earlier than previously expected and the negative effect on margins look to be worse than

• Based on information from BAIInfo, there are currently six new projects being carried out, which will increase total
capacity with 1,025,000mt (973,750mt effective capacity) in the forecast period. This new capacity is being introduced
throughout 2022 and represent an increase of current capacity of 55% (57.5% of the current effective capacity).
• We estimate that this significant increase of available production capacity for silicones considerably surpasses the
forecasted demand growth, and as a result we expect lower utilisation moving forward.
rammern
20.12.2021 kl 10:42 952

Ja,ja jeg ser at Elkem gjør mye riktig og at info SB1 suger til seg , kan dreie seg om et uriktig bilde gitt fremtidig utvikling innen Elkems områder .