Arctic initiates Havila Kystruten with PT 1.73 Nok


Arctic research headline summary:

IoC: Every storm runs out of rain

After several challenging years due to factors out of management’s control, the refinancing this summer enabled the company to take delivery of the final 2x vessels in August while also ensuring a sufficient liquidity buffer. HKY now has four state-of-the-art vessels on a contract with the Norwegian government running through 2030. On our figures, the company should be able to ramp up utilization without any further equity injections. Once the leverage ratios start dropping to more comfortable levels, refinancing will be the clear catalyst for a re-rating of the stock.
We initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation and a TP of NOK 1.73.
adagio
05.10.2023 kl 09:53 1698

Ser mer ut som en TP på 0.73

Fearnley Research Summary from today:

3q23 was the quarter where the final pieces of the puzzle were put together. All vessels are now in operation, with 4q23 poised to be the first fully operational quarter in the company’s history. Adjusting 3q23 numbers for incurred XO costs such as legal costs and fees, EBITDA almost broke even, coming in at NOK -1m (legal fees of NOK 35m booked in other opex). Looking into 4q23, we hike our occupancy estimate somewhat to 59% (56%) on the back of decent bookings QTD, though, higher costs leave our EBITDA estimate slightly down 3% to NOK 40m.

HKY is largely a 2024 story, and considering strong pre-bookings of 45%, the company is arguably on track to reach our occupancy estimate of 75% for the year. This should alleviate some pressure on the 4q24 Tranche B maturity (albeit 100% guaranteed by largest shareholder). Moreover, with all four vessels in full operations, contractual revenues will now rise. We maintain our Buy recommendation and keep our TP to NOK 1.80/sh unchanged (NOK 1.80/sh, 03.10.2023)
skadi
05.12.2023 kl 16:49 1357

Litt for mange feil på de skip der at aksjekursen skal bevege seg oppover.
Jabbefly
05.12.2023 kl 17:31 1333

Tipper det utgjør en bra kjøpsmulighet. Og ikke minst trolig en nyttårsrakett
Jabbefly
07.12.2023 kl 08:30 1224

Trader Svein Egil Larsen har kjøpt nesten 900 000 aksjer de siste dagene.... det bør være et bra kjøpssignal

Han selger når du lokker andre til å kjøpe, inkl han selv listen for 2 dager siden viser at denne fyren bare sitter å hausser og får andre til å kjøpe mens han selv selger: HKY SELACO AS -78.371 777.443 0,1
Redigert 08.12.2023 kl 09:22 Du må logge inn for å svare
Jabbefly
08.12.2023 kl 10:03 1084

Mulig det, men Fredriksen, Fredly, Falnes, Midelfart og Skorstad har økt siste mnd

Dei er ute før du aner det, her kommer en ny emisjon slik jeg har fortstått det. Leser at bare rentekost for Hky stjeler 50% av inntektene og dette er før opex og capex er betalt. En her går en tom for penger utover 2024.

Very interesting article in the Financial Times on 22/12/23 - very bullish for Cruise operators - should help HKY at some point

"Carnival and Royal Caribbean, the two sector leaders, are among the top 10 performers on the S&P 500 this year. Their shares are up 141 per cent and 161 per cent, respectively, while smaller rival Norwegian Cruise Line has gained 77 per cent."

Carnival: plain sailing for cruise operators
DECEMBER 22 2023

Having been nearly sunk by the pandemic, the cruise industry is buoyant again. Carnival and Royal Caribbean, the two sector leaders, are among the top 10 performers on the S&P 500 this year. Their shares are up 141 per cent and 161 per cent, respectively, while smaller rival Norwegian Cruise Line has gained 77 per cent.

Between 2020 and 2022, the three companies collectively lost $50bn as bookings plunged and trips were cancelled. But the industry currently has several things going in its favour.

Experience-based spending — particularly travel — is holding up. Florida-based Carnival this week reported an average 101 per cent occupancy rate during the fourth quarter, compared to 85 per cent last year and 104 per cent in 2019. Net yield, or the revenue per passenger per cruise day, excluding costs, for the period was 6 per cent higher than 2019.

Demand has remained robust, with two-thirds of 2024 occupancy already booked and at considerably higher prices, Carnival said.

Meanwhile, fuel prices have been coming down. Carnival’s fuel cost per metric tonne in 2023 was about 16 per cent lower than 2022. Demographics are also on its side as baby boomers splurge on cruises.

Yet despite the impressive run, only Royal Caribbean is near its pre-pandemic high. Both Carnival and Norwegian remain about two-thirds lower than their peaks.

High debt levels might be giving investors pause. Cruise operators had to borrow heavily during the pandemic. Carnival has about $28.5bn of long-term debt. The $2bn it spent on interest expenses in the fiscal year contributed to the $74mn net loss. Its enterprise value-to-ebitda multiple of 12 times remains substantially higher than its pre-pandemic multiple of around 8 times.

Despite a heavy liabilities load, the cruise industry sails surprisingly smoothly. Improving cash flow enables the industry to pay down its debt. Given this, Carnival will leave remaining pessimists in its wake.

Summary of the Fearnley Research from December 23

All About the Long-Term Story

What’s new: 3q23 review – Buy maintained, TP unchanged at NOK 1.80/sh

Our take: With all four vessels in full operation, contract revenues are set to increase. Strong
2024 pre-bookings mean our 75% occupancy estimate is well within reach.
• Final quarter without all vessels in operations
• Strong 2024 outlook, 45% of capacity already booked
• Contract revenues to increase into 4q23, ’24 looks solid at 7.2x EV/EBITDA

3q23 was the quarter where the final pieces of the puzzle were put together. All
vessels are now in operation, with 4q23 poised to be the first fully operational
quarter in the company’s history. Adjusting 3q23 numbers for incurred XO costs
such as legal costs and fees, EBITDA almost broke even, coming in at NOK -1m (legal
fees of NOK 35m booked in other opex). Looking into 4q23, we hike our occupancy
estimate somewhat to 59% (56%) on the back of decent bookings QTD, though,
higher costs leave our EBITDA estimate slightly down 3% to NOK 40m.

HKY is largely a 2024 story, and considering strong pre-bookings of 45%, the
company is arguably on track to reach our occupancy estimate of 75% for the year.
This should alleviate some pressure on the 4q24 Tranche B maturity (albeit 100%
guaranteed by largest shareholder). Moreover, with all four vessels in full
operations, contractual revenues will now rise. We maintain our Buy
recommendation and keep our TP to NOK 1.80/sh unchanged (NOK 1.80/sh,
03.10.2023).

HAV appoints new CFO - very positive

HAV did not communicate much with its shareholders. The appointment of the new CFO should change that. I heard from the company today that improved market communication should be one of the main roles of the new CFO. POSITIVE

https://www.mynewsdesk.com/havilavoyages/pressreleases/havila-voyages-strengthens-its-management-team-3307407?